Greek General Election, January 2015

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jan 2, 2015 21:58:49 GMT finsobruce said:

Jan 2, 2015 18:50:03 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Hahahahahahahaha.

What's the Greek for "brass neck"?

I can't find an exact match, but this Greek saying seems apposite: 

He licks where he used to spit. 

As the Bible has it, "As the dog returns to his vomit, does Pasoch the Greek return to bilk the State".

[Devonian]

And what kind of radical new rhetoric can we expect from this 'Movement for Change'

"It's time for the next big step of the progressive forces in the country," Papandreou, the son of one of Greece's most prominent political dynasties, said in a post on his Facebook page. "It's time to build, together, a new political home that will house our progressive values, the values ​​that unite us."

uk.reuters.com/article/2015/01/02/uk-greece-politics-idUKKBN0KB0VH20150102

gosh, that sounds just like tired old clichéd rhetoric to me. Maybe the change comes from new policies?

The new party, dubbed "Movement for Change", has yet to detail policies but they are expected to be similar to those of PASOK

[Devil Wincarnate]

Pasok was a mechanism for milking the Greek state for lots of cash.  Given the country's finances, presumably the Movement for Change will milk the state for spare change.

[Devonian]

Apparently even Papandreou decidedthat calling the Party 'Movement for Change ' would be just too much. He's settled on the name "Democrat Socialists Movement". In fact it seems that he wants to stress now that its not a movement for change, he's chosen to launch the party in an Athenian museum!

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/former-greek-prime-minister-george-papandreou-sets-up-new-centreleft-political-party-9955508.html

[Devonian]

Opinion poll for e-voice. Poll was published today, fieldwork dates 1-2 Jan


SYRIZA 27.5%
New Democracy 24.3%
To Potami 5.5%
KKE 4.4%
Golden Dawn 4.3%
PASOK 3.5%
Independent Greeks 2.7%
Greens 1.1%
Other party 7.4%

None 6.3%
Undecided 12.4%
Refused 0.6%


Some questions in the poll that might help swing in for New Democracy

Among the political leaders whom you consider most appropriate for the governance of the country

Samaras  - 35.9%
Tsipras  - 25.3%

Which party feel better able to manage the financial crisis and the problems of citizens?

New Democracy - 32.7%
SYRIZA - 24.2%

dexiextrem.blogspot.com.es/2015/01/e-voice-32.html

[Devonian]

Opinion poll from Palmos Analysis


SYRIZA 29.4%
New Democracy 22.0%
Golden Dawn 5.7%
KKE 4.3%
To Potami 4.1%
Independent Greeks 3.2%
PASOK 3.0%
Ecologist Greens 2.2%

tvxs.gr/news/ellada/stis-75-monades-mprosta-o-syriza-apotyxia-tis-kindynologias







It also has what looks to me like an adjustments for DKs/refused (anyone here who can read Greek pls correct me if I'm wrong) and seat projection.

[Devonian]

The same poll has produced some nice graphics showing what where the voters for the three largest parties in the last election in 2012 are now in their stated voting intention. Note that the PASOK figure is changes since 2012 (i.e. after they had already lost over two thirds of their 2009 vote share)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I fear Greece is about to be exhibit one in the argument "why protest movements should never form governments".

Spain is preparing to be exhibit two.

[Richard Cromwell]

Jan 3, 2015 19:43:53 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I fear Greece is about to be exhibit one in the argument "why protest movements should never form governments".

Spain is preparing to be exhibit two.

Both are part of a much larger exhibit, which is called "How the EU Destroyed Europe".

[Deleted]

Jan 3, 2015 19:43:53 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I fear Greece is about to be exhibit one in the argument "why protest movements should never form governments".

Spain is preparing to be exhibit two.

Who would you vote for David?

[Deleted]

Jan 3, 2015 21:05:14 GMT joe said:

Jan 3, 2015 19:43:53 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I fear Greece is about to be exhibit one in the argument "why protest movements should never form governments".

Spain is preparing to be exhibit two.

Who would you vote for David?

Poll added to this thread.

[Deleted]

Jan 3, 2015 22:12:23 GMT swanarcadian said:

Jan 3, 2015 21:05:14 GMT joe said:

Who would you vote for David?

Poll added to this thread.

The Greens lost their MEP last time out and finished behind the Party of Greek Hunters.. I demand they be added to the poll

[Devil Wincarnate]

Panhellenic Citizen Chariot would make a great name for a prog rock album.

[Devonian]

New poll here from Rass show advances by both of the larger parties with the smaller parties getting squeezed (changes since the last poll 17-18 December)

SYRIZA 30.4% (+3.3)
New Democracy 27.3% (+3.6)
KKE 4.8% (-0.5)
To Potami 4.7% (-1.1)
Golden Dawn 3.8% (-0.6)
PASOK 3.5% (-1.1) 
Independent Greeks 2.5% (-0.3)
Anti-Capitalist Left 1.4% (+0.3)

Other 3.8% (-2.4)
Refused 2.6% (-0.2)
Undecided 15.2% (-1.0)

www.e-typos.com/gr/vouleutikes-ekloges-2015/arthro/111275/dimoskopisi-gia-ton-ettk-mera-me-ti-mera-kleinei-i-psalida/

The poll also asked people If they would vote for  Papandreou's New Party 

Yes 6.1%
No 92.4%
No answer 1.5%

Those that said yes as a proportion of 2014 Euro election voters

SYRIZA 5.3%
New Democracy 3.9%
PASOK 19.0%

Given how close PASOK is to the 3% threshold this suggests they might be pushed out of the Parliament altogether.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jan 4, 2015 10:54:02 GMT Devonian said:

Given how close PASOK is to the 3% threshold this suggests they might be pushed out of the Parliament altogether.

One corrupt political party down, several to go.  Please let the Belgian PS be next.

[The Bishop]

Whatever you think of them (and I understand fully the widespread reaction of "not much") PASOK effectively ceasing to exist would be a defining moment in Greek politics (and arguably more widely, too) It would be fitting, somehow, were it a Papandreou driving the final nail into their coffin.

[Devonian]

German Federal Government sources have briefed Der Spiegal that they consider Greece's exit from the Euro to be manageable and that it wold simply be a matter of working out the legal issues of leaving the Euro and staying in the EU.

www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/griechenland-bundesregierung-hat-nichts-gegen-austritt-aus-euro-a-1011122.html

Interesting article from ZeroHedge here suggesting that it would not be manageable and suggesting reasons why the German government is putting out this spin

[...]a Grexit now would mean all hopes of ECB QE would be put on indefinite hiatus until the legal framework of not only funding sovereign deficits but also monetizing bonds from an imploding Eurozone is justified. It also means that peripheral bonds, which have priced in well over 100% of a European QE, would go bidless overnight, leading to market crashes across the continent, then to bank runs first across the periphery then the core, and ultimately lead to a full-blown European depression.[...]

www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-03/gloves-come-germany-says-grexit-manageable-tsipras-demands-greek-debt-writeoff

[finsobruce]

Jan 4, 2015 12:08:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Whatever you think of them (and I understand fully the widespread reaction of "not much") PASOK effectively ceasing to exist would be a defining moment in Greek politics (and arguably more widely, too) It would be fitting, somehow, were it a Papandreou driving the final nail into their coffin.

would be an interesting case of a coffin being buried by its intended occupant...

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jan 3, 2015 21:05:14 GMT joe said:

Jan 3, 2015 19:43:53 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I fear Greece is about to be exhibit one in the argument "why protest movements should never form governments".

Spain is preparing to be exhibit two.

Who would you vote for David?

I'd throw myself in the river.

[carlton43]

I'm not Greek. I'm not there. I have not lived through the problems they have. I know insufficient about the detailed policies and people behind each party. I could barely hazard a wild guess from here. So not voting.