If the 1974 local government reorganisation had not happened

[mrhell]

The Liberals would have been weaker in Newcastle but a bit stronger in Northumberland as our second modern councillor in the former was in Gosforth 1975 which had been in the Gosforth UDC. I have heard it said that the boundary reorganisation was why we gained the seat from the Conservatives. Newburn UDC also ended in 1974 which on the whole since then has been Labour.

[piperdave]

I'll have to have a think about the same premise in Scotland.

[cibwr]

Having researched the history of the run up to local government regorganisation in Wales, which paralleled that in England to some extent I have to say that the 1974 reforms were more or less going to happen in some way or another. We went from 13 counties, 4 county boroughs and over 500 districts to 8 counties and 37 districts. All the indications were that the 500 districts were going to be amalgamated into between 35 and 40 districts and the counties to between 5 and 10 counties. Counties lost their health and water authority powers at the same time, police forces were removed from local government and subsequently the fire authorities. The trend to create quangoes and centralise functions would continue.

[Pete Whitehead]

One thing I noticed was that throughout the series which David reproduced the old St Albans MBC had a Conservative majority but in the first elections for the enlarged St Albans DC (incorprating Harpenden UD and St Albans RD), the Conservatives did not have a majority or indeed even a plurality in the wards which were in the former MB. Therefore if there had been no reforms then the Tories would have lost control of the MBC and with the exception of a temporary recovery in the late 70s would not have retained it since (they are currently only the third largest party in the area)

[cibwr]

Dec 23, 2014 12:01:25 GMT @trident said:

Dec 23, 2014 10:45:24 GMT cibwr said:

Having researched the history of the run up to local government regorganisation in Wales, which paralleled that in England to some extent I have to say that the 1974 reforms were more or less going to happen in some way or another. We went from 13 counties, 4 county boroughs and over 500 districts to 8 counties and 37 districts. All the indications were that the 500 districts were going to be amalgamated into between 35 and 40 districts and the counties to between 5 and 10 counties. Counties lost their health and water authority powers at the same time, police forces were removed from local government and subsequently the fire authorities. The trend to create quangoes and centralise functions would continue.

I'm not sure it was absolutely inevitable that small authorities would have been consolidated / merged anyway. There are other advanced developed nations, like France, that have lots of very small local authorities.

Perhaps the idea of shared services - currently being implemented out of necessity in many places - would have taken off much earlier.

From my reading of the details of the various commissions it was clear that there was a general feeling that piecemeal collaboration was thought not to be desirable because it would create a multiplicity of overlapping boundaries and there was not much evidence of an appetite for such collaboration - many of these authorities were very parochial. There was an attempt to permit small boroughs to retain the dignity of a borough while becoming - in effect - a parish council, by becoming a rural borough. A tiny handful of authorities in England converted to rural borough.

Seven rural boroughs were created:

Bishop's Castle, to Clun and Bishop's Castle Rural District in 1967
Bridgnorth, to Bridgnorth Rural District in 1967
Lostwithiel, to St Austell Rural District in 1968
Ludlow, to Ludlow Rural District in 1967
South Molton, to South Molton Rural District in 1967
Oswestry, to Oswestry Rural District in 1967
Wenlock, to Bridgnorth Rural District in 1966

The only real areas of collaboration were the creation of joint police forces

[afleitch]

All this would have impacted on constituency boundaries too. Given how each review determines what happens at the next I had a quick look at what might have happened in the Third Periodical review in Scotland:

Third Review

Aberdeenshire
Aberdeen North – No change
Aberdeen South – No change
Aberdeenshire West – Looses Huntly District and Huntly Burgh to Aberdeenshire East
Aberdeenshire East – Gains Huntly District and Huntly Burgh from Aberdeenshire West (Both seats would be more accurately labelled ‘North’ and ‘South’)

Angus and Kincardine
North Angus and Mearns – Gains Kirriemuir District and Burgh from South Angus
South Angus – Looses Kirriemuir District and Burgh to North Angus and Mearns
Dundee East – No change
Dundee West – No change

Argyll – No change

Ayrshire and Bute
Ayr – No change
Bute and North Ayrshire – Gains Kilbirnie District from Central Ayrshire
Central Ayrshire – Looses Kilbirnie District to Bute and North Ayrshire
Kilmarnock – No change
South Ayrshire – No change

Banffshire – No change

Berwick and East Lothian – No change

Caithness and Sutherland – No change

Dumfriesshire – No change

Dunbartonshire
Central Dunbartonshire – Looses Milngavie to East Dunbartonshire, gains Bearsden from East Dunbartonshire
East Dunbartonshire – Looses Bearsden to Central Dunbartonshire, gains Milngavie from Central Dunbartonshire
West Dunbartonshire – No change

Fife

Central Fife – Loss of Lochgelly burgh and district and Cowdenbeath burgh to Cowdenbeath. Gains Wemyss District from East Fife and western part of Wemyss district and Leven burgh from Kirkcaldy
Dunfermline – Loss of eastern part of Dunfermline district and Inverkeithing burgh to Cowdenbeath
East Fife – Loss of eastern part of Wemyss district to Central Fife
Kirkcaldy – Loss of Leven burgh and western part of Wemyss district to Central Fife
Cowdenbeath - Lochgelly burgh and district, Cowdenbeath burgh, eastern part of Dunfermline district, Inverkeithing burgh, eastern part of Wemyss district (New seat)

Inverness-shire and Ross and Cromarty
Inverness – No change
Ross and Cromarty – No change
Western Isles – No change

Kirkcudbright and Wigtown – Galloway – No change

Lanarkshire

Entitlement 18 seats. Current. 21

Bothwell – No change
East Kilbride – Looses Blantyre/Stonefield to Rutherglen
Hamilton – No change
Lanark – No change
Northern Lanarkshire – No change
Rutherglen - Gains Blantyre/Stonefield from East Kilbride
Coatbridge and Airdrie – No change
Motherwell – No change

Glasgow

Representation is reduced to 10 seats. The end result would be similar to what we had in 1983 in reality (a rewarding of Glasgow would also have been highly overdue at this point)

Pollok – No change
Govan – Gains Craigton (abolished)
Cathcart – No change
Central – Gains Queens Park (abolished), small gain of part of Kelvingrove and loss of small part of Central to Shettleson
Garscadden – No change
Hillhead – Gains Kelvingrove (abolished), small loss of part of Kelvingrove to Central.
Maryhill – No change
Springburn – No change
Provan – No change
Shettleston – Gains small part of Central (Calton/Bridgeton)

Midlothian
Midlothian West – West Calder, East Calder and Currie Districts from Midlothian (abolished)
Midlothian East – Remainder of Midlothian (abolished)

Edinburgh

(similar changes as in reality)
Edinburgh Central – Gains part of Edinburgh North (abolished)
Edinburgh East – No change
Edinburgh Leith – Gains part of Edinburgh North (abolished)
Edinburgh Pentlands – No change
Edinburgh South – No change
Edinburgh West – No change

Moray and Nairnshire – No change

Orkney and Zetland – No change

Perthshire and Kinross
Kinross and West Perthshire – Gains Perth District south of River Tay from Perth and East Perthshire
Perth and East Perthshire – Looses Perth District south of River Tay to Kinross and West Perthshire

Renfrewshire

Greenock and Port Glasgow – No change
Paisley – No change
Renfrewshire East – Loss of Second District, loss of Barrhead Burgh to Renfrewshire Central
Renfrewshire West – Loss of Renfrew Burgh, loss of Johnstone Burgh to Renfrewshire Central
Renfrew Central - Second District, Barrhead Burgh, Renfrew Burgh, Johnstone Burgh (New seat)

Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles – No change

Stirlingshire and Clackmannanshire

Clackmannan and East Stirlingshire – Loss of Second Eastern and Third Eastern Districts to Stirlingshire South
West Stirlingshire – Loss of Central Second district and the burghs of Dunipace and Kilsyth to Stirlingshire South
Stirling, Falkirk and Grangemouth – Loss of Grangemouth to Stirlingshire South (New name: Stirling and Falkirk)
Stirlingshire South - Central Second district, the burghs of Dunipace and Kilsyth, Second Eastern and Third Eastern Districts

West Lothian
West Lothian North – Linlithgow District and Burgh, Queensferry District and Burgh, Bo’Ness District and Burgh, Uphall District
West Lothian South – Whitburn and Livingston, Armadale and Bathgate Burghs, Torpichen District

OVERALL CHANGE

Abolished seats – Glasgow Craigton, Glasgow Queens Park, Glasgow Kelvingrove, Edinburgh North, Midlothian, West Lothian
Created seats – Renfrewshire Central, Stirlingshire South, West Lothian North, West Lothian South, Midlothian East, Midlothian West, Cowdenbeath.

PARTISAN EFFECT

Of the six abolished seats, all bar one (Edinburgh North) were held by Labour in 1979. However Labour make gains in the created seats. Renfrewshire Central (along with Paisley) nestles in the footprint of what would in reality be Paisley North and South and would be a Labour win. Stirlingshire South would also be a Labour win. The two new seats created from West Lothian and Midlothian would both also be Labour wins as too would Cowdenbeath. So Labour end up evens with the Tories down 1. However the abolition of Edinburgh North throws a chunk of Tory territory into Edinburgh Central making it a notional Conservative gain. Changes to the boundary between Bute and North Ayrshire and Central Ayrshire almost have the opposite effect, but the Tories would just hang on. Changes in Stirlingshire, removing Kilsyth from Stirlingshire West would make the seat a lot closer.

So in all, Scotland as a whole down 1 seat and Labour also down 1 seat.

GENERAL ELECTIONS

What effect would the general elections of 1983-1992 have had on the seats?

1983.

With Dennis Canavan likely vacating Stirlingshire West for Stirlingshire Central, it makes the Tories task in Stirlingshire West a lot easier and I would expect Michael Forsyth to take the seat. Maclennan and Kennedy win Caithness and Sutherland and Ross and Cromarty for the Alliance as does Roy Jenkins in Glasgow Hillhead. However with no Gordon, then the Alliance fail to make a dent in the north east. The Conservatives take Renfrewshire West from Labour and also snatch East Lothian and Berwick from Labour in a close three way contest (Labour’s looses a chunk of it’s majority in real life East Lothian to Musselburgh and don’t make it up in Berwickshire. The Tories overtake Labour thanks to their voters in Berwickshire)

1987.

A Tory collapse in Scotland. Labour take the Western Isles and Dundee East from the SNP, but the SNP make gains from the Tories winning Moray and Nairn, Banffshire, Aberdeenshire East and Angus South. The Alliance also take Aberdeenshire West at last from the Conservatives and oust them in Argyll and East Fife. Labour also take Aberdeen South, Edinburgh Central and Edinburgh South from the Tories as well as winning in East Lothian and Berwick. Labour oust the Alliance in Hillhead, oust the Tories in Renfrewshire West, Bute and Ayrshire North. In all the Tories are reduced to just 9 seats

1992.

And now a mini revival. The Tories successfully oust the Liberal Democrats in Aberdeenshire West and Labour in Aberdeen South.

[Deleted]

Dec 22, 2014 18:19:24 GMT piperdave said:

I'll have to have a think about the same premise in Scotland.

As part of the ongoing debate around local democracy in Scotland, I had some thoughts on this subject earlier in the year.

Counties
The system of counties would largely remain as it was. The only significant change would likely be the establishment of the County of the Western Isles. However, the boundaries of a number of counties would probably have seen changes similar to those implemented as part of the creation of the 1975-96 regions and districts. For example, Cumbernauld would still move from Dunbartonshire to Lanarkshire and Ardnamurchan from Argyll to Inverness-shire.

Districts
In addition to those districts moving from one county to another, a number of small districts would possibly merge into larger ones, but not on the scale seen in 1974. Taking Ross & Cromarty as an example, the previous eleven districts might morph into four: Easter Ross, Mid Ross, Wester Ross, and the Black Isle.

Burghs
A threshold for small burghs would be likely, possibly at 3,000 and so in line with the current definition of an 'urban area'. Those burghs below the threshold could have been dissolved, but that would be controversial. A threshold for a large burgh would also likely be set. A minimum of 30,000 seems about right and would give us the following large burghs:

Airdrie	Ayr	Coatbridge
Cumbernauld	Dumfries	Dunfermline
East Kilbride	Falkirk & Grangemouth	Glenrothes
Greenock & Port Glasgow	Hamilton	Inverness*
Irvine	Kilmarnock	Kirkcaldy
Livingston	Motherwell & Wishaw	Paisley
Perth*	Rutherglen	Stirling*

The only former large burgh not on that list is Arbroath with a population of c.24,000. While Inverness, Perth, and Stirling are cities, they are too small to justify county of city status, I suspect.

[john07]

Dec 23, 2014 12:07:26 GMT @trident said:

Dec 22, 2014 18:10:40 GMT mrhell said:

The Liberals would have been weaker in Newcastle but a bit stronger in Northumberland as our second modern councillor in the former was in Gosforth 1975 which had been in the Gosforth UDC. I have heard it said that the boundary reorganisation was why we gained the seat from the Conservatives. Newburn UDC also ended in 1974 which on the whole since then has been Labour.

In this part of the world, I think the Conservatives might have remained politically viable and relevant for longer than they did if we had the old, smaller councils.

For example, metropolitan boroughs like Wirral and Sefton have been out of reach for them since the late 1980's, but they could have continued to hold on to smaller boroughs and urban districts like Bebington, Formby, Wirral UDC, Hoylake, possibly even Crosby, etc even in the mid-1990's.

They would still have collapsed completely in Liverpool itself, but the narrative about the Tories being unelectable in Merseyside (and other large conurbations) would not have taken hold.

There could be a lot of factors at play apart from boundaries.

For example, Manchester was one of the few local authories who were not impacted by boundary changes yet the Conservatives have been pretty well wiped at all levels of Government. Prior to reorganisation, the Conservatives were competitive throughout the City. They remained so after reorganisation for a year or two before starting a slow but steady decline.