The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 26, 2014 12:37:35 GMT
Interesting, I think he was the sort who didn't suffer fools gladly - but many who *did* work for him seem to have nothing but affection. And as far as Labour "disowning" Blair is concerned - many of us agree its not ideal, but the way he has behaved *since* leaving office arguably leaves us with little choice
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 26, 2014 12:40:47 GMT
Since you are not old enough to remember him personally, what exactly are you basing this on? Few who knew the man would agree with the latter point, in particular? I have heard from quite a few people that he was not a pleasant person to work for. Try reading Mark Stuart's biography of him, which gives no such impression. Page 411 sums up Smith's personal characteristics very well.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 26, 2014 12:43:20 GMT
Well, I have to disagree with the above posts to some extent. It is easy to regard Blair with a jaundiced eye given what we know now, but 20-25 years ago things were rather different. He was one of the "big beasts" then, no question. I don't doubt that he was a "big beast" back then but for the reasons outlined by Devonian I don't think he would have performed well as a cabinet minister. His undoubted political skills were not really suited to running a large government department and I don't think he would have enjoyed it that much.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Nov 2, 2014 10:45:24 GMT
One year earlier, then - hardly "much". As for Smith's possible successor - might that have been the same as IRL? Well one key difference may have been that you wouldn't have had Alun Michael as First Secretary of the National Assembly for Wales.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Nov 2, 2014 10:46:38 GMT
What, or who, is IRL?
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 2, 2014 10:56:32 GMT
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,607
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 2, 2014 11:48:26 GMT
Standard alt history acronym, eg: IRL: In Real Life OTL: Our Time Line ATL: Alternate Time Line POD: Point Of Divergence ASB: Alien Space Bats - a highly unlikely POD used to get past the POD and get on with the story WI: What If
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,516
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 4, 2014 14:55:09 GMT
I have heard from quite a few people that he was not a pleasant person to work for. Try reading Mark Stuart's biography of him, which gives no such impression. Page 411 sums up Smith's personal characteristics very well. Well quite. My mum liked John Smith, and for her to like any Labour leader at all (bearing in mind her loathing for Labour) means he must have been doing something right! Not that she'd ever vote, or has every voted anything but Liberal/Lib Dem mind...
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,540
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Post by john07 on Nov 4, 2014 15:45:25 GMT
Try reading Mark Stuart's biography of him, which gives no such impression. Page 411 sums up Smith's personal characteristics very well. Well quite. My mum liked John Smith, and for her to like any Labour leader at all (bearing in mind her loathing for Labour) means he must have been doing something right! Not that she'd ever vote, or has every voted anything but Liberal/Lib Dem mind... I never heard many people have a bad word to say about John smith. He was rather too far to the right for many of us but he exuded competence and leadership qualities. By contrast Tony Blair was fairly well regarded when he first arrived but this evapourated fairly soon after he came to power. People stuck with him because he was seen as an election winner but many disliked him and the way he operated. The final issue of hanging on grimly and messing things up for Gordon Brown and then party generally certainly was highly damaging. The phased departure of his acolytes did further harm.
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Post by afleitch on Nov 15, 2014 20:41:59 GMT
This is probably an easy scenario I should think. He will win the GE in 1997, but doesn't have the same 'Heineken effect' that Blair had and would probably only win relatively comfortably due to the public generally being tired of the Tories. The media weren't exactly easy on him when he was leader and he would never had the same decade long courtship that Blair had. The Lib Dem's might end up with a better election, vote share wise, in 1997 that they actually got. I can see a number of Tory-Labour switchers moving to the Lib Dems.
So I should think something like Labour 39%, Tory 34% Lib Dem 20%. That would give, roughly a Labour majority of 81. Labour 370, Con 210, Lib Dem 49 (I used ElectoralCalculus for fun) That keeps Portillo in. However, the party fallout would probably still see William Hague elected leader. The ingredients were already there and winning 210 seats (rather than 165) could not be seen as a 'victory' by any means. I don't see any major issues for Labour, the economy would keep going as it had been. Paddy Ashdown would have still stood down and Charles Kennedy would still have won. Hague would still be seen as cr-p. The vainglorious Tony Blair would have probably have found a job in the European Commission towards the end of the term.
Smith would probably have held onto 2002 before calling an election. In terms of rising and falling, it would be similar to what actually happened in 2001. Labour would fall to 37% but the Tories would end up with 35%. The Lib Dems would take 22%. That would give Labour a majority of around 35 (Lab 347, Con 228, Lib 54) And things would get rather boring. I can imagine that there would be intervention in Iraq, but less bombastic than actually happened.
I don't see Smith finishing a full second term. He would go in 2004 or 2005. Either Brown wins or someone who we would now consider obscure would win; a home secretary or defence secretary. Let's say a scandal-less Stephen Byers (remember him?) But let's go with Brown, because he always had that sense of entitlement to him. The Tories would not make an IDS mistake, nor would it need a caretaker in Michael Howard. I can imagine that Michael Portillo might have actually won in 2002 though it's not clear what 'iteration' that would be (as he would never have been seatless). Brown carries on to 2007. He's a bit rubbish, even though the economy hasn't tanked, but just because it's clear that in any circumstances Brown would be a bit rubbish as PM.
Portillo goes full Cameron and Labour's majority is down to less than 30 thanks to by-elections. Charles Kennedy is still the bees-knees in the public eye. Election ends up Con 38, Lab 31, Lib Dem 27. Lib Dems pick up 80 seats. Tories are largest party. Mild constitutional crisis because while Kennedy is keen to go into coalition with Labour, everyone knows he is on the sauce. Brown is as petulant in 2007 as he was in 2010 in reality. Something is cobbled together however. Everything is too 'Scottish' for some people however. Portillo remains leader of the Tories but only just. The coalition government struggles on, the financial crisis hits as it does and Charles Kennedy appears drunk on the telly in the middle of it. The coalition snaps and there is a general election called in November. The Tories walk it, winning a majority of about 30-40.
And so the Tories are back in power after ten years out of office.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2014 21:23:03 GMT
Jim Murphy would be current Prime Minister in the Lab/LibDem coalition government preparing to send in the troops to Glasgow after refusing to accept the 50.1 to 49.9 YES vote.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 15, 2014 21:40:35 GMT
Try reading Mark Stuart's biography of him, which gives no such impression. Page 411 sums up Smith's personal characteristics very well. Well quite. My mum liked John Smith, and for her to like any Labour leader at all (bearing in mind her loathing for Labour) means he must have been doing something right! Not that she'd ever vote, or has every voted anything but Liberal/Lib Dem mind... Yes, my Mother liked him too and she was a die-hard Tory. I think he got that major rose-tinted spectacles aura that is reserved for those who die suddenly.......and that he would have turned out to be divisive and out of his depth leading to an increasingly rebarbative character rather like Brown.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2014 22:08:16 GMT
John Smith was hard and practical but with a sense of humour rarely seen in politics, apparently had a particular talent for ripping the piss out of left leaning colleagues without them knowing it.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 16, 2014 14:20:56 GMT
There would have been no Monklands East by-election, so Erlend and I would probably not have crossed paths until LD Conference in Glasgow in 1995. Helen Liddell would presumably have been elected in 1997 for another seat. There were Labour vacancies at the time in Motherwell, Cumbernauld and Govan.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Jan 9, 2015 0:38:29 GMT
Labour win a Majority of 90 and introduce greater investment in public services than in in Blair's first term. The Smith Government also kyboshes rail privatisation. Brown still given free rein over the Treasury. Smith wins a second term with a slightly smaller majority (about 80-85). Troops are sent into Afghanistan after 9/11, although the relationship between Smith and President Bush is more business-like than the real life love-in we saw with Blair. Labour is divided over the question of committing troops to Iraq, and much like with Vietnam, not signing up to invade still does not appease those who want an all-out condemnation of the war. There are also figures like Tony Blair who want to invade. The stress of it all causes Smith to suffer a heart attack so severe he has to stand down on health grounds in June 2004 with Brown effectively crowned leader and PM (and goes on to win Labour's third term with a dramatically reduced majority, Tories under Cameron win outright in 2010 as a result of having a smaller electoral mountain to climb and the real-life economic downturn).
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Jan 13, 2015 17:19:37 GMT
Standard alt history acronym, eg: IRL: In Real Life OTL: Our Time Line ATL: Alternate Time Line POD: Point Of Divergence ASB: Alien Space Bats - a highly unlikely POD used to get past the POD and get on with the story WI: What If And there's the DBWI...
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