Callaghan calling General Election in October 1978

[john07]

I would like to start this off.

It was one of the most anticlimactic moments in my life when I saw Callaghan rule out an early General Election on television.

The rumours had been circulating about an election being called. I was working at the University of Aston at the time and made my excuses and departed on a train for Cheadle Hulme having phoned to meet up with my agent in Marple. I arrived at my mothers place and sat down to watch Callaghan appear on TV. Then came the big let down and I got a train back to Birmingham in the morning.

There is little doubt that Labour would have done better than in 1979. The damage caused by by the winter of discontent would not have been in play. However would this have been sufficient to deny a majority to Thatcher. The local election results in 1978 were hardly sparkling for Labour but they were a lot better than for the County elections in 1977.

Any thoughts on this one?

[Devil Wincarnate]

I will happily defer to those who were active (or just alive) at the time, but here's my two penn'orth.

I agree that Labour would have done much better but not well enough.  I would imagine the vote shares to be similar to February 1974, but maybe with a squeeze on the Liberals in the aftermath of the Thorpe revelations- with the Liberal seats that go back to the Tories being cancelled out by a less dramatic collapse for the SNP.

What I'm struggling with is what happens next.  I can't see Steel propping up Thatcher or Callaghan on a formal basis.  I therefore imagine that Callaghan tries to carry on, maybe reaching the usual pork-barrel arrangements with some Ulster MPs, and some supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals- but with the situation getting increasingly worse economically, and the Winter of Discontent occurring as in our lifetime, with Callaghan's hands effectively tied.

In the meantime, the Tory grandees blame the failure to win on the excessively Dry formula and rein in Mrs. Thatcher somewhat.  However, she is not removed.  

The huge number of by-elections in the meantime are of little help to Labour.   Penistone does go Tory.  Glasgow Garscadden falls to the SNP in a surprise victory.  Manchester Moss Side breaks the record for the smallest majority, with a Labour majority of 2 after several recounts.

Callaghan eventually falls in late 1978, in early 1979.  The Tories win a small majority under Mrs Thatcher, but the good news for Labour in the medium term is that David Owen and Shirley Williams are both turfed out, and Bill Rodgers has not got the allies or clout to even try and form a new grouping.  Thatcher is forced to act more slowly.  Callaghan remains Labour leader as the party is riven by internal strife.  The economy does not improve vastly, but the Falklands War helps the Tories out.

Both parties continue to perform poorly at by-elections.  This becomes most obvious when the returning Roy Jenkins wins the Warrington by-election in his new guise as a Liberal.

[john07]

I would not disagree with much that you have said but the Falklands War needs to be taken in context.

The conspiracy theorists might argue that Thatcher engineered the whole crisis by withdrawing much of the naval presence in the South Atlantic and sending out subliminal messages to the Argentian military that if they were to take things into their own hands that Britain was not retaliate. I suppose that the scenarios where Argentina never invaded the Falklands is another question but it might not have happened without the Thatcher victory in 1979.

[Deleted]

If he had called a General Election in 78 I believe things would have been a lot different, the SNP collapse in favour of the Tories may not have happened. The Tories gained 8 seats in Scotland in 79, the SNP lost 9. Bit late at night but as I said on another thread this was probably the most important decision in the history of UK politics. Get back tomorrow.

[The Bishop]

I highly doubt the WoD would have occurred regardless in the following winter had Callaghan been re-elected in Oct 1978.

He would have had the authority to at least reach some sort of short-term deal with the unions - I agree it might have just been kicking the can down the road, though.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 14, 2014 10:27:43 GMT The Bishop said:

I highly doubt the WoD would have occurred regardless in the following winter had Callaghan been re-elected in Oct 1978.

He would have had the authority to at least reach some sort of short-term deal with the unions - I agree it might have just been kicking the can down the road, though.

If he'd won with a clear majority, then I agree with you.

If he is running a minority government, I reckon he would not have had the authority and the WoD still happens.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 13, 2014 22:04:44 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The huge number of by-elections in the meantime are of little help to Labour.   Penistone does go Tory.  Glasgow Garscadden falls to the SNP in a surprise victory.  Manchester Moss Side breaks the record for the smallest majority, with a Labour majority of 2 after several recounts.

I may be being overly pedantic for this thread, but all of these would have been before the Oct 78 election, so I'm not sure why the results would have been different?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 14, 2014 12:42:36 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 13, 2014 22:04:44 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The huge number of by-elections in the meantime are of little help to Labour.   Penistone does go Tory.  Glasgow Garscadden falls to the SNP in a surprise victory.  Manchester Moss Side breaks the record for the smallest majority, with a Labour majority of 2 after several recounts.

I may be being overly pedantic for this thread, but all of these would have been before the Oct 78 election, so I'm not sure why the results would have been different?

I think that's suitably and acceptably pedantic- I have indeed got my dates wrong there in my rush to illustrate a point!

[ColinJ]

I cannot forget the huge feeling of anti-climax.

I believe Callaghan made his television announcement on Thursday 7 September 1978. This just happened to be the day of two council by-elections in Harrow..... I left for home from my temporary job at Queen Mary College, London, that afternoon confidently predicting to colleagues that an election would be called. Once back in Harrow I called in at the committee rooms to be told of Callaghan's announcement. I also learnt that "we were ahead in every polling district" but the grim faces showed we all suspected Sunny Jim had made a big mistake.

Labour gained one of the seats by a huge margin on a big swing:
www.harrow-elections.co.uk/resources/1978Roxbourne.pdf
although it has to be said the reason for the election made the campaign favourable to Labour. The Conservatives lost the other by-election to a Ratepayer:
www.harrow-elections.co.uk/resources/1978Wemborough.pdf

A missed opportunity, things had definitely been moving Labour's way over the summer and the nightmare of the 'Winter of Discontent' had yet to happen.

[Deleted]

It is worth pointing out that the opinion polls were actually showing Conservative leads during September 1978 when Callaghan made that announcement. There were four of them held during the month averaging Con 48.1%, Lab 43.8%, Liberal 6.0%. It wasn't until October when things were briefly looking up, by which time it was too late.

Here are some more monthly polling averages for this period:

Oct 1978: Lab 48.0, Con 43.1, Lib 6.1

Nov 1978: Lab 46.9, Con 44.9, Lib 5.9

Dec 1978: Con 46.4, Lab 45.2, Lib 5.3

Jan 1979: Con 48.8, Lab 42.2, Lib 5.9

Feb 1979: Con 51.7, Lab 36.2, Lib 8.8

Mar 1979: Con 50.5, Lab 39.6, Lib 7.4

Apr 1979: Con 48.8, Lab 39.4, Lib 9.7

May 1979 (pre GE): Con 44.8, Lab 38.9, Lib 13.6

Actual result: Con 44.9, Lab 37.7, Lib 14.1

[johnloony]

When I was a child I thought that the title was "pri minister" and I remember discovering that it was "Prime Minister" (probably when I was about 9) by seeing the subtitle on the TV when Callaghan was on TV one time.