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Clacton
Sept 2, 2014 15:22:22 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 2, 2014 15:22:22 GMT
But it isn't the norm. A handful of by - elections. And if we are serious about politics costing less....
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Post by Devonian on Sept 2, 2014 15:33:12 GMT
Surely it's hardly wise to compare one from the other, where both had rather stark differences of shares in their Newark polling previously, despite being released near the same time? (I do say this with a vested interest ofc: being Kipper...)  12 points is quite a lot. I suspect once it is out of mind it will settle down to about 15-20 points. I hope for less - but its going to be hard to win. I don't believe that UKIP can score in the 60s - they are too polarising. I was expecting the Ashcroft to be less generous to UKIP than Survation but you are quite right that 12 points is a big difference. Even so a 33 point lead is very healthy. |
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Post by Devonian on Sept 2, 2014 16:24:17 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 2, 2014 17:02:41 GMT
It might have been close in 2001. The boundary changes added 2,701 votes to the Tory majority and the Labour majority in Harwich in 2001 was 2,596. Except that the good Labour result in 2001 owes an awful lot to Ivan Henderson being an excellent constituency MP. Had he not won in 1997, we wouldn't have had the benefit of his sizeable personal vote. |
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Post by froome on Sept 2, 2014 17:38:57 GMT
It's also the day after the end of the Lib Dem conference. Isn't that normally the first one? Yes - moved this year because of the Scottish referendum. IIRC the TUC is still meeting next week though. Actually the first conference of the autumn season is usually the Green Party's, and this year is no exception. Ours starts this Friday. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 2, 2014 19:09:28 GMT
Ashcroft asked how people would vote in the general election:
UKIP 39%
Con 22%
Lab 15%
LD 2%
Green 2%
Refused / would not vote 9%
Don't know 11%
Including only positive responses:
UKIP 48.8%
Con 27.5%
Lab 18.8%
LD 2.5%
Green 2.5%
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 2, 2014 19:34:17 GMT
Not so. That is only your opinion. It is not 'clearly a political act'. It looks like the act of a man who is a theoretical polemicist with strong views on change and correct behaviour and procedure. I am prepared to believe that once he had made up his mind to jump he felt obliged to both announce it straight away and to do what he considered to be the 'correct thing' in re-standing in new colours. To an extent anything at all is a political act, and in politics all actions and non actions are political acts; but I think you meant carefully considered overt act with precise timings and factored in hoped for political ends. I don't think that is true. It would be if I had done it but probably not for him. But in our system, the customary procedure (and as a traditionalist, surely you agree with respecting our constitutional custom and practice?) is to remain in Parliament on the grounds that an MP is elected to represent their constituents, not simply as a party hack. I think it is far more likely that this has been in the offing for a while and this was a time chosen which will do the job of keeping UKIP in the news and cause maximum damage to the Tories. I think you're both right (and wrong). There is no "customary procedure" for switching political alleigance and by elections. If Carswell had switched and not fought a by election he would have been pilloried for not putting himself to the electorate and "betraying" those who voted for him as a Tory. But I do think that this has been timed for what can be counted as maximum political advantage - and why not? this is politics after all. It is precisely what Mr O'Flynn was employed for in the first place. And while it seems at the moment like a good gamble, it couldn't really be described as a sure thing. |
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Clacton
Sept 2, 2014 20:05:47 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 2, 2014 20:05:47 GMT
As I have often said Devonian - I don't like either the Tories or Ukip and am strongly in favour of the EU - so how they get on together or what they believe doesn't bother me. I do think Ukip doing relatively well will assist my party in some marginals.
Personally I think there should either be a rule that all party switchers face the electorate or none do. As the potential for politicking is do great I lean towards the latter view
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 2, 2014 20:58:00 GMT
If Carswell had switched and not fought a by election he would have been pilloried for not putting himself to the electorate and "betraying" those who voted for him as a Tory. Really? The last time a Parliamentary defection caused a by-election was over 30 years ago. Which means that nobody would be expecting him to put himself to the electorate. If there were any such criticisms, they certainly wouldn't be widespread or loud enough to be accurately described as him being pilloried. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 2, 2014 21:09:40 GMT
Calling for the defector to resign and stand for re-election under their new colours is the standard response to a defection. I'm sure someone at CCHQ was half way through writing a press release calling on Douglas Carswell to do that by the time that Carswell announced he was doing so of his own accord.
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neilm
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Clacton
Sept 2, 2014 21:26:53 GMT
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Post by neilm on Sept 2, 2014 21:26:53 GMT
If Carswell had switched and not fought a by election he would have been pilloried for not putting himself to the electorate and "betraying" those who voted for him as a Tory. Really? The last time a Parliamentary defection caused a by-election was over 30 years ago. Which means that nobody would be expecting him to put himself to the electorate. If there were any such criticisms, they certainly wouldn't be widespread or loud enough to be accurately described as him being pilloried. Nobody except perhaps the man in the Clacton omnibus. Don't the Greens have a rule that you can't sit with them until you're elected as a Green? |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 2, 2014 21:28:35 GMT
If Carswell had switched and not fought a by election he would have been pilloried for not putting himself to the electorate and "betraying" those who voted for him as a Tory. Really? The last time a Parliamentary defection caused a by-election was over 30 years ago. Which means that nobody would be expecting him to put himself to the electorate. If there were any such criticisms, they certainly wouldn't be widespread or loud enough to be accurately described as him being pilloried. what David said...  but yes - in fact the rareness of the occurence at a parliamentary level added to the general feeding frenzy in our 24 hour media world these days would make it a nailed on certainty. At a local level witness the former colleagues always quoted when someone crosses the floor on a council. And then when they do resign you can then accuse them of wasting public money... |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,787 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 2, 2014 21:35:38 GMT
If Carswell had switched and not fought a by election he would have been pilloried for not putting himself to the electorate and "betraying" those who voted for him as a Tory. Really? The last time a Parliamentary defection caused a by-election was over 30 years ago. Which means that nobody would be expecting him to put himself to the electorate. If there were any such criticisms, they certainly wouldn't be widespread or loud enough to be accurately described as him being pilloried. Also, it's less than a year to the election where he would he would be having to defend his seat. I am fairly open-minded about people defecting towards the end of their term. They are at the point of considering whether to stand at all, it's part of that process to decide if they want to stand for the same party. It's the sort of people that defect six fortnights after getting elected that I have a problem with. |
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 2, 2014 22:18:54 GMT
Really? The last time a Parliamentary defection caused a by-election was over 30 years ago. Which means that nobody would be expecting him to put himself to the electorate. If there were any such criticisms, they certainly wouldn't be widespread or loud enough to be accurately described as him being pilloried. Nobody except perhaps the man in the Clacton omnibus. Don't the Greens have a rule that you can't sit with them until you're elected as a Green? Nationally, no. In some local parties, yes. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 2, 2014 22:32:38 GMT
Really? The last time a Parliamentary defection caused a by-election was over 30 years ago. Which means that nobody would be expecting him to put himself to the electorate. If there were any such criticisms, they certainly wouldn't be widespread or loud enough to be accurately described as him being pilloried. Nobody except perhaps the man in the Clacton omnibus. I don't think the man on the Clacton omnibus cares about political minutiae. He's probably more worried about why the buses in Clacton are never on time. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2014 23:37:49 GMT
Don't the Greens have a rule that you can't sit with them until you're elected as a Green? The Scottish Greens do. |
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Post by Devonian on Sept 3, 2014 0:11:06 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Sept 3, 2014 0:19:30 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2014 8:27:45 GMT
But it isn't the norm. A handful of by - elections. And if we are serious about politics costing less.... ...we would have 600 MPs fighting similarly sized constituencies next year? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 3, 2014 10:25:21 GMT
Which would save piddling amounts, if anything.
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but yes - in fact the rareness of the occurence at a parliamentary level added to the general feeding frenzy in our 24 hour media world these days would make it a nailed on certainty. At a local level witness the former colleagues always quoted when someone crosses the floor on a council. And then when they do resign you can then accuse them of wasting public money...