Clacton

[Deleted]

The byelection will be held on October 9th.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

They could move the writ today, as 9 October would be day 27 of the timetable.

[neilm]

A week after the end of the Conservative conference.

[Deleted]

Sept 2, 2014 9:50:39 GMT neilm said:

A week after the end of the Conservative conference.

"The date chosen by the Conservatives is also David Cameron's 48th birthday." says the BBC.

[neilm]

It's also the day after the end of the Lib Dem conference. Isn't that normally the first one?

[Deleted]

Well done the tory campaign team for doing everything they can to ensure a ukip win

[The Bishop]

Sept 2, 2014 10:01:28 GMT neilm said:

It's also the day after the end of the Lib Dem conference. Isn't that normally the first one?

Yes - moved this year because of the Scottish referendum.

IIRC the TUC is still meeting next week though.

[neilm]

I assumed it was some sort of Lib Dem desperate publicity grab.

[neilm]

Sept 2, 2014 10:08:59 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Well done the tory campaign team for doing everything they can to ensure a ukip win

Perhaps we should run a book on how many times the leadership trot out the line that a UKIP vote will let Ed Miliband in.

Patronising guff that annoys the man on the Clacton omnibus.

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 2, 2014 10:08:59 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Well done the tory campaign team for doing everything they can to ensure a ukip win

Not quite everything yet. I haven't heard that they've selected Jerry Hayes to fight the seat

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The Ashcroft Clacton poll:

UKIP 56%
CON 24%
LAB 16%
L DEM 2%
Others 2%

[Merseymike]

I suppose I find it hard to see anything at all positive about Carswell. His politics are the diametric opposite of mine

Other than that his actions split the Right. Which I approve of.

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 2, 2014 13:41:03 GMT Merseymike said:

I suppose I find it hard to see anything at all positive about Carswell. His politics are the diametric opposite of mine

Other than that his actions split the Right. Which I approve of.

I do like the way that UKIP 'splits' the Right

	2010 result	Ashcroft Poll
BNP	5	-
UKIP	-	56
Con	53	24
'Right'	58	80
LD	13	2
Lab	25	16
Grn	1	1
'Left'	39	19

[Deleted]

44 point lead already down to 32. Still massive, but good to see that a sizeable chunk has been taken out. If we start our campaign well it could be relatively close.

[Tangent]

Sept 2, 2014 14:10:35 GMT joe said:

44 point lead already down to 32. Still massive, but good to see that a sizeable chunk has been taken out. If we start our campaign well it could be relatively close.

The says more about Survation than anything else. I personally believe that the Conservatives could win, but don't have the gumption to really fight for the seat - hence, the writ being moved before a candidate is in place.

[Ben Walker]

Sept 2, 2014 14:10:35 GMT joe said:

44 point lead already down to 32. Still massive, but good to see that a sizeable chunk has been taken out. If we start our campaign well it could be relatively close.

Surely it's hardly wise to compare one from the other, where both had rather stark differences of shares in their Newark polling previously, despite being released near the same time?

(I do say this with a vested interest ofc: being Kipper...) 

[Deleted]

Sept 2, 2014 14:20:26 GMT Ben Walker said:

Sept 2, 2014 14:10:35 GMT joe said:

44 point lead already down to 32. Still massive, but good to see that a sizeable chunk has been taken out. If we start our campaign well it could be relatively close.

Surely it's hardly wise to compare one from the other, where both had rather stark differences of shares in their Newark polling previously, despite being released near the same time?

(I do say this with a vested interest ofc: being Kipper...) 

12 points is quite a lot. I suspect once it is out of mind it will settle down to about 15-20 points. I hope for less - but its going to be hard to win. I don't believe that UKIP can score in the 60s - they are too polarising.

[Merseymike]

Oh, I don't mean in this particular by - election. That will tell us very little about a forthcoming general election in itself. Labour haven't a prayer here and under the new boundaries wouldn't have even won it in 97.

If Ukip gain greater credibility they are more likely to cause antagonism within the right and disproportionately take general election votes from the Tories. The key issues are ones where our position is clear and differ from those of Ukip. The Conservatives less so.

[Andrew_S]

It might have been close in 2001. The boundary changes added 2,701 votes to the Tory majority and the Labour majority in Harwich in 2001 was 2,596.

[Devonian]

Sept 2, 2014 0:33:31 GMT Merseymike said:

Personally, I think it is a waste of money.

He was already an MP. He changed parties. Many have before him, and it is not customary to offer oneself for re-election. Some may think it should be, but it is not the convention - so it is clearly a political act

It may not be convention that MPs changing party whip have to call a by election but neither is it convention that they should not. As I pointed out earlier there have been number of by elections called by encumbent MPs with the purpose of seeking endorsement for a resignation or change of whip (1884 Brighton, 1890 Barrow-in-Furness, 1895 East Wicklow, 1898 Great Grimsby, 1899 Osgoldcross, 1902 Orkney and Shetland, 1904 Isle of Wight, 1906 Mid Cork, 1909 Stratford-on-Avon, 1926 Kingston-upon Hull Central, 1927 Southwark North, 1939 Preston, 1938 Kinross and West Perthshire, 1973 Lincoln, 1982 Mitcham and Morden).

Now clearly even when this type of by election was most common in the 1890-1910 period it was not seen as compulsory (I notice that Churchill didn't call a by election either time he defected) but neither can it be claimed that this type of election is a recent innovation.