Clacton

[Andrew_S]

Introducing the newly-appointed Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, Mr John Douglas Wilson Carswell:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crown_Steward_and_Bailiff_of_the_Manor_of_Northstead

The appointer was Mr George Gideon Oliver Osborne.

[carlton43]

Sept 1, 2014 15:31:34 GMT Andrew_S said:

Introducing the newly-appointed Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, Mr John Douglas Wilson Carswell:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crown_Steward_and_Bailiff_of_the_Manor_of_Northstead

The appointer was Mr George Gideon Oliver Osborne.

Surely 'Mr Gideon George Oliver Osborne'?

[neilm]

I can't see the announcement on the main Treasury announcements page.

[Devonian]

Ashcroft Constituency poll out tomorrow

[Andrew_S]

Sept 1, 2014 16:49:03 GMT Devonian said:

Ashcroft Constituency poll out tomorrow

Another survey putting Carswell over 60% will have Tory high command sweating I imagine.

[carlton43]

Sept 1, 2014 17:42:49 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 1, 2014 16:49:03 GMT Devonian said:

Ashcroft Constituency poll out tomorrow

Another survey putting Carswell over 60% will have Tory high command sweating I imagine.

All good stuff isn't it?

[psephos]

Sept 1, 2014 17:45:30 GMT carlton43 said:

Sept 1, 2014 17:42:49 GMT Andrew_S said:

Another survey putting Carswell over 60% will have Tory high command sweating I imagine.

All good stuff isn't it?

Why bother? This moron who thinks himself bigger than his party, who thinks he can swagger and disobey the whip at every turn, who thinks his constituents voted for him and not for the tree next to his name - a by-election costs money, and all for an MP for the last six months of the Parliament? Sod the by-election, and hold over the writ til the general election. It's Carswell's kooky-eyed maniac brainfart that decided the seat can go vacant, not the Tory Party.

And before any UKIP mouthbreathers respond - don't. Your spastic self-righteous bull**** needs to be pummelled down with shovels.

[Devonian]

Sept 1, 2014 17:42:49 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 1, 2014 16:49:03 GMT Devonian said:

Ashcroft Constituency poll out tomorrow

Another survey putting Carswell over 60% will have Tory high command sweating I imagine.

Survation often gives UKIP better results than other pollsters so my gut instinct (and my natural pessimism) would be to expect the Ashcroft poll to be better for the Tories. On the other hand if Ashcroft does get a result similar the Survation that would, as you say, be a disaster for the Tories.

[Devonian]

Sept 1, 2014 17:52:14 GMT psephos said:

And before any UKIP mouthbreathers respond - don't. Your spastic self-righteous bull**** needs to be pummelled down with shovels.

I love you too!

[Devonian]

Sept 1, 2014 17:52:14 GMT psephos said:

Sept 1, 2014 17:45:30 GMT carlton43 said:

All good stuff isn't it?

Why bother? This moron who thinks himself bigger than his party, who thinks he can swagger and disobey the whip at every turn, who thinks his constituents voted for him and not for the tree next to his name - a by-election costs money, and all for an MP for the last six months of the Parliament? Sod the by-election, and hold over the writ til the general election. It's Carswell's kooky-eyed maniac brainfart that decided the seat can go vacant, not the Tory Party.

If Carswell had done this in mid November or later then the Tories could have made this argument. They could have said, well its too late for a by election before Christmas and a by election in the new year would be too close to the election. That would have been plausible. To make the argument now however eight months before the election would look exactly the same as holding the election and not running in it. It would look like running away from democracy and running away from UKIP, neither of which would be a good impression for it to give.

[Deleted]

Sept 1, 2014 18:08:56 GMT Devonian said:

Sept 1, 2014 17:52:14 GMT psephos said:

Why bother? This moron who thinks himself bigger than his party, who thinks he can swagger and disobey the whip at every turn, who thinks his constituents voted for him and not for the tree next to his name - a by-election costs money, and all for an MP for the last six months of the Parliament? Sod the by-election, and hold over the writ til the general election. It's Carswell's kooky-eyed maniac brainfart that decided the seat can go vacant, not the Tory Party.

If Carswell had done this in mid November or later then the Tories could have made this argument. They could have said, well its too late for a by election before Christmas and a by election in the new year would be too close to the election. That would have been plausible. To make the argument now however eight months before the election would look exactly the same as holding the election and not running in it. It would look like running away from democracy and running away from UKIP, neither of which would be a good impression for it to give.

Which makes me wonder how long Carswell had planned it. The timing does seem strategical. Any earlier, he might have peaked too soon and been at risk of losing his seat in 2015, if not the by-election. Any later, and more people would have viewed the by-election as an unnecessary waste of money so close to a general election.

[thirdchill]

Sept 1, 2014 18:41:13 GMT swanarcadian said:

Sept 1, 2014 18:08:56 GMT Devonian said:

If Carswell had done this in mid November or later then the Tories could have made this argument. They could have said, well its too late for a by election before Christmas and a by election in the new year would be too close to the election. That would have been plausible. To make the argument now however eight months before the election would look exactly the same as holding the election and not running in it. It would look like running away from democracy and running away from UKIP, neither of which would be a good impression for it to give.

Which makes me wonder how long Carswell had planned it. The timing does seem strategical. Any earlier, he might have peaked too soon and been at risk of losing his seat in 2015, if not the by-election. Any later, and more people would have viewed the by-election as an unnecessary waste of money so close to a general election.

I'd disagree on the timing, it could have been better. Coinciding with the European and Local elections this year would have been a better time to have it. I agree that too early and he might have peaked but a year before is not too early.

[carlton43]

Sept 1, 2014 17:52:14 GMT psephos said:

Sept 1, 2014 17:45:30 GMT carlton43 said:

All good stuff isn't it?

Why bother? This moron who thinks himself bigger than his party, who thinks he can swagger and disobey the whip at every turn, who thinks his constituents voted for him and not for the tree next to his name - a by-election costs money, and all for an MP for the last six months of the Parliament? Sod the by-election, and hold over the writ til the general election. It's Carswell's kooky-eyed maniac brainfart that decided the seat can go vacant, not the Tory Party.

And before any UKIP mouthbreathers respond - don't. Your spastic self-righteous bull**** needs to be pummelled down with shovels.

More tea vicar?  Another gin and vitriol for Dr. Psephos?

[Merseymike]

Personally, I think it is a waste of money.

He was already an MP. He changed parties. Many have before him, and it is not customary to offer oneself for re-election. Some may think it should be, but it is not the convention - so it is clearly a political act

[carlton43]

Sept 2, 2014 0:33:31 GMT Merseymike said:

Personally, I think it is a waste of money.

He was already an MP. He changed parties. Many have before him, and it is not customary to offer oneself for re-election. Some may think it should be, but it is not the convention - so it is clearly a political act

Not so. That is only your opinion. It is not 'clearly a political act'. It looks like the act of a man who is a theoretical polemicist with strong views on change and correct behaviour and procedure. I am prepared to believe that once he had made up his mind to jump he felt obliged to both announce it straight away and to do what he considered to be the 'correct thing' in re-standing in new colours. To an extent anything at all is a political act, and in politics all actions and non actions are political acts; but I think you meant carefully considered overt act with precise timings and factored in hoped for political ends. I don't think that is true. It would be if I had done it but probably not for him.

[Merseymike]

Sept 2, 2014 0:44:03 GMT carlton43 said:

Sept 2, 2014 0:33:31 GMT Merseymike said:

Personally, I think it is a waste of money.

He was already an MP. He changed parties. Many have before him, and it is not customary to offer oneself for re-election. Some may think it should be, but it is not the convention - so it is clearly a political act

Not so. That is only your opinion. It is not 'clearly a political act'. It looks like the act of a man who is a theoretical polemicist with strong views on change and correct behaviour and procedure. I am prepared to believe that once he had made up his mind to jump he felt obliged to both announce it straight away and to do what he considered to be the 'correct thing' in re-standing in new colours. To an extent anything at all is a political act, and in politics all actions and non actions are political acts; but I think you meant carefully considered overt act with precise timings and factored in hoped for political ends. I don't think that is true. It would be if I had done it but probably not for him.

But in our system, the customary procedure (and as a traditionalist, surely you agree with respecting our constitutional custom and practice?) is to remain in Parliament on the grounds that an MP is elected to represent their constituents, not simply as a party hack.

I think it is far more likely that this has been in the offing for a while and this was a time chosen which will do the job of keeping UKIP in the news and cause maximum damage to the Tories.

[Richard Allen]

Sept 2, 2014 0:56:36 GMT Merseymike said:

Sept 2, 2014 0:44:03 GMT carlton43 said:

Not so. That is only your opinion. It is not 'clearly a political act'. It looks like the act of a man who is a theoretical polemicist with strong views on change and correct behaviour and procedure. I am prepared to believe that once he had made up his mind to jump he felt obliged to both announce it straight away and to do what he considered to be the 'correct thing' in re-standing in new colours. To an extent anything at all is a political act, and in politics all actions and non actions are political acts; but I think you meant carefully considered overt act with precise timings and factored in hoped for political ends. I don't think that is true. It would be if I had done it but probably not for him.

But in our system, the customary procedure (and as a traditionalist, surely you agree with respecting our constitutional custom and practice?) is to remain in Parliament on the grounds that an MP is elected to represent their constituents, not simply as a party hack.

I think it is far more likely that this has been in the offing for a while and this was a time chosen which will do the job of keeping UKIP in the news and cause maximum damage to the Tories.

Carlton may or may not be a traditionalist but Carswell certainly isn't.

[carlton43]

Sept 2, 2014 0:56:36 GMT Merseymike said:

Sept 2, 2014 0:44:03 GMT carlton43 said:

Not so. That is only your opinion. It is not 'clearly a political act'. It looks like the act of a man who is a theoretical polemicist with strong views on change and correct behaviour and procedure. I am prepared to believe that once he had made up his mind to jump he felt obliged to both announce it straight away and to do what he considered to be the 'correct thing' in re-standing in new colours. To an extent anything at all is a political act, and in politics all actions and non actions are political acts; but I think you meant carefully considered overt act with precise timings and factored in hoped for political ends. I don't think that is true. It would be if I had done it but probably not for him.

But in our system, the customary procedure (and as a traditionalist, surely you agree with respecting our constitutional custom and practice?) is to remain in Parliament on the grounds that an MP is elected to represent their constituents, not simply as a party hack.

I think it is far more likely that this has been in the offing for a while and this was a time chosen which will do the job of keeping UKIP in the news and cause maximum damage to the Tories.

I am astonished at your first para, but not surprised. Crossing the floor is not common and I don't see that there is any legit custom or practice at stake at all; nor should there be. I don't hold with your wormy quasi-traditionalist (no I am not traditionalist......atheist, republican, anti-titles, and anti Honours System) view as to what should be done. Nor do I think an honourable man MUST resign. Some will want to renew the mandate in new colours and some will want the drama of walking across and socking it to the former party from the other benches. Entirely up to the man to do it his way.

It might be a cunning plan but I don't think so. If one wanted to do damage it could have been ordered in a different manner.

[East Anglian Lefty]

The composition of the Survation poll was a little odd. Not enough to obscure the immense UKIP lead, but the same responses in a differently weighted poll could push UKIP under 60% without trouble.

[Deleted]

Sept 2, 2014 0:33:31 GMT Merseymike said:

Personally, I think it is a waste of money.

He was already an MP. He changed parties. Many have before him, and it is not customary to offer oneself for re-election. Some may think it should be, but it is not the convention - so it is clearly a political act

I disagree. A political act is changing sides and then stonewalling any attempt to have your electorate agree to your move. I understand your point, that it is not convention, but so little of this country's structure is written down, so that sounds a rather clumsy attempt to keep things as the Establishment like them.

Carswell has chosen to ask his electorate to 'approve' his change of party. I am sure we can argue for WHY he's chosen to do so, but unlike psephos, I think he's a better man for doing so. To sit around the Commons as a UKIP MP without any electoral mandate would be exactly the "Establishment stitch up" they campaign against.