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Post by woollyliberal on Aug 29, 2014 11:00:37 GMT
29/08/14
Con: 35.8% (±7.3, i.e. 29% – 43%)
Lab: 32.3% (±5.5, i.e. 27% – 38%)
LD: 11.7% (±8, i.e. 4% – 20%)
UKIP: 12.3%
Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 301 (223 – 391)
Lab: 294 (209 – 367)
LD: 26 (12 - 33)
Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 25
Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 54% … with a majority: 28%
Lab largest: 46% … with a majority: 22%
Hung Parliament: 50% … with Con largest: 26% … with Lab largest: 24%
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2014 11:08:08 GMT
29/08/14 Con: 35.8% (±7.3, i.e. 29% – 43%)Lab: 32.3% (±5.5, i.e. 27% – 38%)LD: 11.7% (±8, i.e. 4% – 20%)UKIP: 12.3% Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals) Con: 301 (223 – 391) Lab: 294 (209 – 367) LD: 26 (12 - 33) Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 25 Approximate probabilities of key outcomes Con largest: 54% … with a majority: 28% Lab largest: 46% … with a majority: 22% Hung Parliament: 50% … with Con largest: 26% … with Lab largest: 24% Data with error margins that wide are completely and utterly useless. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Aug 29, 2014 12:16:21 GMT
Data with error margins that wide are completely and utterly useless. Data would be, yes. Predictions only somewhat. The margins close in every week or two as we get closer to the election. Over the couple of months I've been following this, the trend is a slight strengthening of the Lab position at the expense of LD and Con. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jan 16, 2015 16:58:05 GMT
The Oxford team have changed their methodology to take account of the SNP surge. They're now saying there's a 79% chance of a hung parliament and no two party combination is able to give a majority. This is what they say is the most likely outcome:
Con 283
Lab 281
SNP 36
LD 26
PC 3
UKIP 3
Green 1
Lab SNP LD has a majority of 21
Lab SNP is 5 short of a voting majority
Con LD is 13 short
Lab LD is 15 short
Con minority is 39 short
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2015 17:22:43 GMT
The Oxford team have changed their methodology to take account of the SNP surge. They're now saying there's a 79% chance of a hung parliament and no two party combination is able to give a majority. This is what they say is the most likely outcome: Con 283 Lab 281 SNP 36 LD 26 PC 3 UKIP 3 Green 1 Lab SNP LD has a majority of 21 Lab SNP is 5 short of a voting majority Con LD is 13 short Lab LD is 15 short Con minority is 39 short this result would mean another election in 2015. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 16, 2015 23:07:51 GMT
I made a prediction a few days ago without seeing this website which was Con 280, Lab 280, LD 32, SNP 25, UKIP 10, so it's interesting to see that they're coming up with similar figures. The Oxford team have changed their methodology to take account of the SNP surge. They're now saying there's a 79% chance of a hung parliament and no two party combination is able to give a majority. This is what they say is the most likely outcome: Con 283 Lab 281 SNP 36 LD 26 PC 3 UKIP 3 Green 1 Lab SNP LD has a majority of 21 Lab SNP is 5 short of a voting majority Con LD is 13 short Lab LD is 15 short Con minority is 39 short |
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