johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944
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Post by johnr on May 20, 2015 20:14:45 GMT
I see the commission has changed its proposals for Angus, now only a reduction of 1 councillor. However, it is cutting a councillor from the most deprived ward! I thought they had an SIMD quota now ? Only for the local authority as a whole, I beleive.
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 909
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Post by piperdave on Jul 15, 2015 22:34:33 GMT
A statement on the Commission's website says they will begin public consultation on ward boundary proposals on 30 July.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2015 10:01:50 GMT
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 909
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Post by piperdave on Jul 30, 2015 19:53:16 GMT
I had trawled through the meeting papers and downloaded what the Commission were minded to propose initially. They then consulted with councils and some of the representations received have been taken up, most notably in South Ayrshire where a ward was 'reinstated'. Argyll & Bute are expecting public outcry at the proposals.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2015 20:38:02 GMT
I had to compose myself at the sight of the line "....propose new ward names: Coatbridge North; Cumbernauld South and Luggiebank; Abronhill, Kildrum, Seafar and The Village....."
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,591
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 31, 2015 5:59:46 GMT
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 909
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Post by piperdave on Jul 31, 2015 16:47:40 GMT
I had to compose myself at the sight of the line "....propose new ward names: Coatbridge North; Cumbernauld South and Luggiebank; Abronhill, Kildrum, Seafar and The Village....." You do know that's three separate wards and not one big one, right?
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Post by A Brown on Jul 31, 2015 17:27:48 GMT
Oh dear Inverness South. Atleast we still have Inverness Ness-side. Inverness South looks unchanged. Haven't looked at many councils although in Edinburgh the changes to SOuthside/Newington and Liberton/Gilmerton look controversial.
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Post by afleitch on Jul 31, 2015 17:37:07 GMT
Wards 6,7,9 and 17 all gain councillors, while Wards 11,12,15,20 and 21 lose a councillor. Two new wards are created: Dennistoun with 3 and Dowanhill/Kelvindale with 4.
Drumchapel/Anniesland (4) – No change to boundary
Garscadden/Scotstounhill (4) – Minimal change to boundary
Partick West (3) is cut back losing Partick and Claythorn. It retains Jordanhill, Broomhill etc so actually becomes more ‘genteel’ than the old ward. Hillhead (3) loses Dowanhill and Hyndland, but takes in a chunk of North Kelvin and Woodlands so demographically, exchanges like for like. Geographically it becomes more compact.
Anderston/City (4) loses Woodlands and has a small adjustment to the east and is now given the additional ‘Yorkhill’ moniker.
Maryhill (3) is created from Maryhill/Kelvin and loses Kelvinside/Kelvindale and Cadder. Maryhill/Kelvin was the most 50/50 in terms of a split in deprivation (some of the most and some of the least deprived areas in the city) but has now lost the more well to do areas to…
Dowanhill/Kelvindale (4) is new containing Dowanhill/Hyndland/Kelvinside, Claythorn, Partick and most of Kelvindale. It’s another genteel bolthole in the West End of the city.
Canal (4) remains broadly the same, but loses Cadder and most of North Kelvin
In terms of the north west of the city
Maryhill(without Kelvin) not only shrinks but loses one councillor. Without any boundary change that would be SNP, but with the changes in mind it’s more likely to be Labour. Partick West loses one which without any boundary change would be SNP, however with the change it’s more likely to be the Green councillor. Hillhead loses 1 councillor which is likely to be Labour.
The new ward of Dowanhill is likely to be a battle between Labour and SNP and the Greens. Looking at it’s political makeup in 2012 and the polling district results (which was a very, very long time ago), I’d go for SNP 2, Labour 1, Green 1
Springburn becomes Springburn/Robroyston (4) kicking out Sighthill, Royston and Germiston but gaining Wallacewell and Robroyston from North East North East (3) loses some areas as described above Calton (4) and Shettleston (4) have no change East Centre (4) is carved up with the new ward of Dennistoun (3) composing Dennistoun, Sighthill, Royston and Germiston and the remainder forming the East Centre ward, taking in Springboig and Barlanark from… Baillieston (3)
In terms of political makeup, North East loses a councillor. Party support there is even and Labour would lose 1. Baillieston also loses a councillor elected on the last count which would be an SNP councillor. Springburn gains a councillor, for the SNP. The new ward is Dennistoun, and you can’t model transfers here, but there’s every likelihood it would return 2 Labour and 1 SNP councillor on 2012 results. Calton also gains a councillor, for the SNP
Now onto the Southside
Govan (4) loses Craigton proper and Dumbrek to Pollokshields (4) There’s no change in Craigton (4) and minimal change in Greater Pollock (4). There are minor changes to Linn (4) and Newlands/Auldburn (3) with a more noticeable transferral of Toryglen from Southside Central (4) to Langside (4)
In terms of political makeup, the boundary changes are fairly minimal. Pollokshields gains a councillor which is likely to be SNP. Langside also gains a councillor which would also be SNP.
So, roughly speaking Labour would lose 3 and gain 3, the Greens would lose 1 and gain 1 and the SNP would lose 1 and gain 7.
So
LAB 44 SNP 33 LIB 1 CON 1 GRN 5 GF 1
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2015 18:06:40 GMT
I had to compose myself at the sight of the line "....propose new ward names: Coatbridge North; Cumbernauld South and Luggiebank; Abronhill, Kildrum, Seafar and The Village....." You do know that's three separate wards and not one big one, right? Ah just imagine!
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Post by A Brown on Aug 3, 2015 11:14:19 GMT
Edinburgh would probably be something like:
SNP 22 (+4) Lab 21 (+1) Con 10 (-1) Grn 7 (+1) LD 3(-)
It's not impossible that Labour could remain the largest party but think some kind of SNP-Green alliance is most likely in 2017.
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kevin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 70
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Post by kevin on Aug 3, 2015 11:27:12 GMT
Edinburgh seats only go up by 5 Edinburgh would probably be something like: SNP 22 (+4) Lab 21 (+3) Con 10 (-1) Grn 7 (+1) LD 3(-) It's not impossible that Labour could remain the largest party but think some kind of SNP-Green alliance is most likely in 2017.
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Post by A Brown on Aug 3, 2015 11:36:01 GMT
My numbers add up to 63.
The extra SNP seats would be in Pentland Hills, Craigentinny//Duddingston, possibly Portobello/Craigmillar and Gilmerton.
Tories woulsd lose the Gilmerton seat.
Labour would get an extra seat in Almond and Greens would probably get a seat in City Centre.
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kevin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 70
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Post by kevin on Aug 3, 2015 13:49:39 GMT
Sorry got confused by your stated notional changes which had net +7. I think you mean Lab +1 rather than +3.
Definitely agree with your analysis though I reckon the 4th Pentland Hills seat would have been pretty tight on the 2012 figures.
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Post by afleitch on Aug 3, 2015 17:36:12 GMT
Here's how each polling district voted in 2012. It might help with the figures.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,692
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Post by iain on Aug 3, 2015 20:04:06 GMT
Here's how each polling district voted in 2012. It might help with the figures. Do you have this for 2007?
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Post by afleitch on Aug 4, 2015 19:07:06 GMT
I do, but only for the Holyrood elections that year (and only coloured by who came first)
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,261
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 6, 2015 9:43:52 GMT
It's not impossible that Labour could remain the largest party but think some kind of SNP-Green alliance is most likely in 2017. It's more likely now that Clowndownie is no longer SNP group leader, but I still have the impression that the Green councillors generally get on better with the Labour ones than the SNP ones in Edinburgh.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,261
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 6, 2015 9:54:03 GMT
My numbers add up to 63. The extra SNP seats would be in Pentland Hills, Craigentinny//Duddingston, possibly Portobello/Craigmillar and Gilmerton. Tories woulsd lose the Gilmerton seat. Labour would get an extra seat in Almond and Greens would probably get a seat in City Centre. Generally agree. The 4th seat in Portobello/Craigmillar would have been very tight on transfers in 2012 between the SNP and Greens (the SNP were not very transfer friendly in those elections), but would be overwhelmingly SNP now, of course.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 1, 2015 21:58:49 GMT
I heard an unsubstantiated rumour tonight, so it is my solemn duty to spread it. The Scottish review of local boundaries may not come into effect before the 2017 elections, because lots of SNP councillors are unhappy with it.
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