piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 906
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Post by piperdave on Feb 19, 2014 19:34:25 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2014 21:15:03 GMT
*rubs hands*
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 19, 2014 23:04:02 GMT
In theory, STV ward boundaries should reflect natural communities, and any significant changes in electorate could just be handled by increasing or decreasing the number of councillors in the ward without changing the boundaries. Unfortunately there is a statutory maximum limit of 4 councillors per ward, and a minimum of 3.
As for numbers of councillors, I would make it compulsory to have an odd number of total councillors in each council, to eliminate the cutting cards/drawing lots nonsense when determining council control.
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 906
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Post by piperdave on Feb 21, 2014 22:24:40 GMT
Fuller information published today. You're all big boys and girls so you can read the guidance booklet for yourselves but interestingly, it looks like an increase in the number of councillors in Glasgow to 85 is on the cards. The councillor number phase will be public from May.
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Post by afleitch on Feb 22, 2014 18:09:44 GMT
I've felt that the STV wards strongly reflect communities. With larger wards there are less awkward splits across main roads, towns etc with those that remain, in Kirkintilloch for example, being implemented because of the way in which the council boundaries are drawn.
If there was no change to councillor numbers, then the boundary changes would be marginal because population changes now affect local areas 3-4 times less than it did when they were single member wards. I did an exercise on this a few months ago and most councils got away with minimal changes except parts of Aberdeenshire, Edinburgh particularly in the Leith area) and Glasgow (around the city centre
Changes in ward numbers means there could be a more drastic redrawing. It'll be fun to play about with.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2014 20:15:12 GMT
I've felt that the STV wards strongly reflect communities. With larger wards there are less awkward splits across main roads, towns etc with those that remain, in Kirkintilloch for example, being implemented because of the way in which the council boundaries are drawn. To be fair, there are a couple of monstrosities, such as Wester Ross, Strathpeffer & Lochalsh, but that was always inevitable. So does that mean we're likely to see an additional councillor in Leith? Based on your exercise, do any other specific changes immediately jump out as likely?
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Post by erlend on Feb 22, 2014 21:02:18 GMT
It sounds possible but how is another matter. One could have 2 four member wards becoming 3 three member ones before one even begins to think about serious changes.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2014 21:11:57 GMT
Leith is currently a three member ward so an additional councillor there, perhaps with some minor boundary changes where necessary, would instinctively seem like the most sensible option to me.
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Post by erlend on Feb 22, 2014 21:13:52 GMT
Of course if they keep the council unchanged (always possible) there will be knock on effects.
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 906
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Post by piperdave on Feb 22, 2014 22:04:57 GMT
There were the interim reviews in 2010 which highlighted wards that were significantly over or under electoral parity. 3 Aberdeen wards were considered as well as a handful of others. I'm waiting until the new registers are published in mid March before looking at which wards are up and which ones are down.
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Post by afleitch on Feb 22, 2014 23:50:58 GMT
For reference here is a map of change in population by ward from 2001-2011 to show you where there are areas of potential growth. If I have time, I'll try and do an electorate one from the point of the past review;
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2014 9:53:00 GMT
Wow, what happened for a 50% increase in population on those handful of wards? I'm guessing these are largely rural wards that border on, and contain a very small part of, an urban centre, and there's been a big housing development there. But one or two are actually very small geographically.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 23, 2014 11:32:50 GMT
Although given that the interim review only made changes to one ward, I presume most of those population changes were already anticipated by the last review.
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 906
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Post by piperdave on Feb 23, 2014 13:19:33 GMT
The Boundary Commission gave their reasons for not proceeding with any changes for these wards (with the exception of Bathgate which gained an extra member in the 2012 elections) and they were:
Aberdeen - The problem was caused by changes in electorate beyond the ward being considered Dundee - Parity was forecast to improve by 2015 Edinburgh - Parity was forecast to improve by 2015 but extensive changes made robust predictions difficult Fife - A full review would resolve the problem better Glasgow - Parity was forecast to improve by 2015 Perth & Kinross - The problem was caused by changes in electorate beyond the ward being considered South Lanarkshire - The problem was caused by changes in electorate beyond the ward being considered
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2014 14:05:56 GMT
Wow, what happened for a 50% increase in population on those handful of wards? I'm guessing these are largely rural wards that border on, and contain a very small part of, an urban centre, and there's been a big housing development there. But one or two are actually very small geographically. Inverness South is a collection of new suburbs on the outskirts of Inverness. It's pretty much the only place where Inverness can expand, and as Inverness is one of the fastest growing cities in Europe, it's perhaps not surprising that it has seen a large population increase. The vast majority of the ward is uninhabited -- there's actually very little rural population there despite its size. I've seen a huge number of new housing developments near the M90 in what I imagine to be in Dunfermline South which probably explains that. Slightly cheaper semi-detached suburbs of Edinburgh really. I'm guessing East Garioch in Aberdeenshire is just expanding Aberdeen commuter-suburbs, though people more familiar with that area will know more. Looking at some of the 30-50% increases, there's been a lot of trendy new apartment blocks built in Leith over the past few years. I believe it's also become increasingly fashionable to live in Glasgow city centre, though I'm not sure what specifically is new there.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2014 16:51:44 GMT
Drug dealers?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2014 17:09:44 GMT
Moving into Glasgow city centre? More like yuppies and guppies colonising the Merchant City.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,503
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 23, 2014 21:02:29 GMT
Wow, what happened for a 50% increase in population on those handful of wards? I'm guessing these are largely rural wards that border on, and contain a very small part of, an urban centre, and there's been a big housing development there. But one or two are actually very small geographically. It can easily happen. In the run up to the 2004 Sheffield review the council predicted the City Centre would have about 3000 electors. I did some research on all the flats and tower blocks being thrown up, and showed this was woefully underestimated, and the boundary commission agreed, and we used an updated prediction of 6000 electors to give a Central Ward of 13,500. It is now 26,500 !!! (10,350 in the city centre). And... the city council has a planning policy to encourage another 10,000 people to move to the city centre.
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Feb 23, 2014 21:20:37 GMT
If you look at Dundee, you can see the effect of people moving out of the city into the surrounding Perthshire and Angus countryside - well, commuter towns in Angus' case.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2014 22:06:43 GMT
Wow, what happened for a 50% increase in population on those handful of wards? I'm guessing these are largely rural wards that border on, and contain a very small part of, an urban centre, and there's been a big housing development there. But one or two are actually very small geographically. It can easily happen. In the run up to the 2004 Sheffield review the council predicted the City Centre would have about 3000 electors. I did some research on all the flats and tower blocks being thrown up, and showed this was woefully underestimated, and the boundary commission agreed, and we used an updated prediction of 6000 electors to give a Central Ward of 13,500. It is now 26,500 !!! (10,350 in the city centre). And... the city council has a planning policy to encourage another 10,000 people to move to the city centre. I can understand it a bit more in an urban centre, where there was probably some previous drop in population as the centre became more commercial, and residents moved out, to be followed by a cycle of regeneration with high density housing. But I was surprised by some of the Scottish wards as they were obviously large in geographical extent, implying a very low density of population - and as I wasn;t aware of any Scottish new Towns springing up, I was interested.
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