Miranda by-election (NSW)

[Sibboleth]

There was a by-election in the suburban Sydney electorate of Miranda (on the southern shore of Botany Bay) today, caused by the resignation (to become chief executive of a rugby league team) of its incumbent Liberal MP. Miranda is historically a Liberal seat, though was Labor until the Great Electoral Cataclysm of 2011 when it voted 71/29 Liberal. Its Labor MP did not seek re-election that year, but was their candidate in this by-election, the results of which were as follows:

ALP 55.2 (+26.2)
Lib 44.8 (-26.2)

Biggest by-election swing in the history of NSW elections and one of the biggest electoral upsets in recent Australian political history.

[Deleted]

Is this a reflection of how poorly Abbott has gone done just in that time ?

[Khunanup]

Oct 19, 2013 18:39:32 GMT @ianrobo said:

Is this a reflection of how poorly Abbott has gone done just in that time ?

This is a state legislature by-election I believe.

[Deleted]

yes but like here with council seats we know national views can make an impression unless of course there is major local issue.

[No Offence Alan]

Oct 19, 2013 20:10:40 GMT @ianrobo said:

yes but like here with council seats we know national views can make an impression unless of course there is major local issue.

Perhaps the voters are just annoyed their representative went off to a rugby league team?

[finsobruce]

Oct 19, 2013 22:05:12 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Oct 19, 2013 20:10:40 GMT @ianrobo said:

yes but like here with council seats we know national views can make an impression unless of course there is major local issue.

Perhaps the voters are just annoyed their representative went off to a rugby league team?

As Labor are now in opposition the state governments will presumably start swinging back in their favour. The swings against them in the last set of state elections were huge, so I suspect that this is a symptom of that. Very early in the cycle though for such a big swing back ,  and in an historically Liberal seat. And yes, the voters probably weren't that chuffed he went off to RL.

[marksenior]

How can it be a historically Liberal seat if Labour held it to 2011 ?

[Pete Whitehead]

I suppose if it had consistently been Liberal before that? There are plenty of UK parliamentary seats that could be described as 'historically Conservative' but which were Labour held before 2010

[Pete Whitehead]

..although having checked it wasn't consistently Liberal before that, so its a hostoric marginal albeit one Labour may only generally win in landslide conditions

[Deleted]

Oct 19, 2013 22:14:05 GMT finsobruce said:

Oct 19, 2013 22:05:12 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Perhaps the voters are just annoyed their representative went off to a rugby league team?

As Labor are now in opposition the state governments will presumably start swinging back in their favour. The swings against them in the last set of state elections were huge, so I suspect that this is a symptom of that. Very early in the cycle though for such a big swing back ,  and in an historically Liberal seat. And yes, the voters probably weren't that chuffed he went off to RL.

given it is in the heart of RL land I am not too sure about that.

[Richard Allen]

Australian voters have an admirable tendency to treat State and Federal elections as distinctly separate events so I doubt that a state by election tells us anything significant about the federal picture.

[finsobruce]

Oct 20, 2013 9:33:18 GMT @ianrobo said:

Oct 19, 2013 22:14:05 GMT finsobruce said:

As Labor are now in opposition the state governments will presumably start swinging back in their favour. The swings against them in the last set of state elections were huge, so I suspect that this is a symptom of that. Very early in the cycle though for such a big swing back ,  and in an historically Liberal seat. And yes, the voters probably weren't that chuffed he went off to RL.

given it is in the heart of RL land I am not too sure about that.

Except that he is going to Gold Coast who are a Queensland team, not a New South Wales one! And he was just throwing up his seat, saying he was leaving politics only two years after getting elected. 

And just to clarify the electoral history..... Labor only won it twice (in landslide years) before Collier was elected, and Collier was widely expected to lose in 2007 but defied the odds and held on. He is clearly a very popular local candidate. And of course, the electorate were being asked to go back to the polls very shortly after the Federal election. And local firecrews campaigned in uniform (for Labor) on polling day against cuts to the service by the Liberal state government.  So you could say a perfect storm of reasons for an ALP victory. 

[finsobruce]

Oct 20, 2013 10:01:35 GMT Richard Allen said:

Australian voters to have an admirable tendency to treat State and Federal elections as distinctly separate events so I doubt that a state by election tells us anything significant about the federal picture.

Very true. Labor has often dominated the state governments before being walloped at the federal polls. 

[carlton43]

Oct 19, 2013 15:24:15 GMT Sibboleth said:

There was a by-election in the suburban Sydney electorate of Miranda (on the southern shore of Botany Bay) today, caused by the resignation (to become chief executive of a rugby league team) of its incumbent Liberal MP. Miranda is historically a Liberal seat, though was Labor until the Great Electoral Cataclysm of 2011 when it voted 71/29 Liberal. Its Labor MP did not seek re-election that year, but was their candidate in this by-election, the results of which were as follows:

ALP 55.2 (+26.2)
Lib 44.8 (-26.2)

Biggest by-election swing in the history of NSW elections and one of the biggest electoral upsets in recent Australian political history.

If it was Labour until the GE of 2011 when it voted 71/29 Liberal, it is less of an upset by far this time than then?

[Sibboleth]

Oct 20, 2013 14:32:53 GMT carlton43 said:

If it was Labour until the GE of 2011 when it voted 71/29 Liberal, it is less of an upset by far this time than then?

No, because NSW Labor collapsed in 2011 and swings of over 20pts were quite common (particularly in the Sydney suburbs). Some electorates had swings of over 30pts. And NSW Labor are (were?) still in the polling doghouse (if not as badly so as before 2011), meaning that basically no one called this, even as a possibility.

[Sibboleth]

Oct 20, 2013 10:07:12 GMT finsobruce said:

And local firecrews campaigned in uniform (for Labor) on polling day against cuts to the service by the Liberal state government.

And this with half the state on fire.

[Sibboleth]

In terms of federal divisions, Miranda is in Cook (a safe Liberal seat since the dismissal of the Whitlam government), though is its less Liberal half. Would have last voted federal Labor for sure in 1983, maybe also in 1993.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Interesting. Although perhaps the more interesting thing will be whether or not this impedes NSW Labor in reforming themselves into something decent people aren't ashamed to be associated with.

[erlend]

For comparison has anyone actually done the figures how it voted in the Federal election? They are there I just hope one of our Aussie opposite numbers has done the work/

[Devil Wincarnate]

This could be reflected in the views of the local voters- but I am a RL nut and I knew of Annersley only in his NRL capacity.  I am genuinely shocked to find out that he had been a member of parliament!