Review of January to April 2012 by-elections

[middleenglander]

There were 21 by-elections during March with 8 (38%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

	Contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won
Conservatives	20	13	8	1	5	9
Labour	17	2	2	5	-	7
Lib Dems	12	3	2	1	1	3
Greens	9	1	-	-	1	-
UKIP	14	-	-	-	-	-
Residents	1	1	1	-	-	1
No Description	2	-	-	-	-	-
Independent	7	1	-	1	1	1
Total	82	21	13	8	8	21

The Conservatives gained a seat from the Greens in Scarborough but lost two to Labour in Braintree and another in Stafford whilst they also lost a seat to the Lib Dems in Shropshire and a further one to an Independent in West Devon. Meanwhile Labour also gained a seat from the Lib Dems in Cumbria and another in Sevenoaks from an Independent, although previously a Lib Dem for many years, with the widow of the former Councillor now being elected herself for Labour.

[Deleted]

welcome back ME, hope you are well

[middleenglander]

Labour contested 17 of the 21 by-elections although neither the Conservatives nor Lib Dems had candidates in Slough, Baylis & Stoke where an Independent polled almost 35% whilst Labour saw its 2011 share fall by over 20%. In retrospect could there have been an element of Bradford West here?

The results from 5 other elections may have few if any national implications for the Party:
* Conservatives gained Scarborough, Hertford from the Greens who did not have a candidate
- Labour share was 19% against 13% in 2011 although Conservative share jumped from 30% odd to over 60%
* Labour gained Sevenoaks, Crokenhill & Well Hill from an Independent, formerly a Lib Dem
- although likely to be through a large personal vote
* Residents retained Tendring, St Bartholomews where Labour polled 8% from nowhere
* Labour saw its share in West Devon, Tiverton North fall from 17% in 2011 to 11% as an Independent gains from Conservative
* Labour remained third in Fareham, Portchester East polling almost 13%, around 1% up on 2010.

Labour did gain 4 of the remaining 11 seats, 1 from Lib Dems and 3 from Conservatives:
* Cumbria, Castle on a 7% Lib Dem to Labour swing since 2009 but 2% swing to Lib Dems since 2011
* Stafford, Rowley on a 5½% swing Conservative to Labour since 2011
* Braintree East on a 6% swing Conservative to Labour since 2011
* Braintree South on a similar swing to Labour since 2011 as in Stafford and Braintree East

Labour failed to gain the Brent, Dollis Hill marginal seat from the Lib Dems where there was just a ½% swing to Labour since 2010
- as the Conservative share fell by 2/3rds to just over 5%.

Labour saw a favourable swing in 3 of the remaining Conservative held seats and an adverse swing in another 2 along with a Labour hold in a seat gained in 2011:
* Braintree, Great Notley & West was almost a 10% swing to Labour since 2011 but still a 30% majority
- although the Labour share was up less than 5% as UKIP polled 15%
* Swale, Kemsley was a 9% swing with Labour little changed and UKIP taking 25% share
* Wandsworth, Southfield also 9% as Conservatives little changed
- Labour benefitted from Lib Dems falling from nearly 20% to 6%
However,
* Broxtowe, Toton and Chilwell Meadows had a 3% swing to Conservatives since 2011
* Hertfordshire, Waltham Cross was nearly 4% since 2009 and possibly 9% since 2011
* High Peak, Buxton Central was around 2% to the Conservatives since 2011.

Although there are exceptions, the swing against the defending party tended to be greater where the by-election was the result of a resignation or disqualification than from a death.

[middleenglander]

There were 9 by-elections during April with 2 (22%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

	Contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won
Conservatives	9	3	3	1	-	4
Labour	8	4	2	-	2	2
Lib Dems	9	2	2	-	-	2
BNP	1	-	-	-	-	-
Green	2	-	-	-	-	-
UKIP	5	-	-	-	-	-
England First	1	-	-	-	-	-
Independent	3	-	-	1	-	1
Total	38	9	7	2	2	9

The Conservatives gained a seat from Labour in Darlington following the jailing of the previous Councillor elected as Labour but sitting as an Independent.
An Independent group gained a seat from Labour in Tower Hamlets following the disqualification of the previous Councillor elected as Labour but sitting as an Independent.

[middleenglander]

There were 48 by-elections in the period January to April with 19 (40%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

	Contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won
Conservatives	47	23	16	5	7	21
Labour	39	9	6	8	3	14
Lib Dems	38	10	6	4	4	10
BNP	2	-	-	-	-	-
Green	16	1	-	-	1	-
UKIP	31	2	-	-	2	-
Others	6	1	1	-	-	1
Independent	12	2	-	2	2	2
Total	191	48	29	19	19	48

* Conservatives gained seats from Labour in Darlington, Lib Dems in Oadby & Wigston, Greens in Scarborough, UKIP in Staffordshire and Independent in Rutland.
* Labour gained 2 seats from the Conservatives ion Braintree and another in Stafford, seats from the Lib Dems in Redcar & Cleveland, St Albans and Cumbria, a seat from UKIP in Staffordshire Moorlands and one from an Independent in Sevenoaks.
* Lib Dems gained seats from the Conservatives in Northamptonshire, South Northants and Shropshire and another from Labour in Newcastle-under-Lyme.
* Independents gained a seat from the Conservatives in West Devon and another from Labour in Tower Hamlets.