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Post by Devonian on Jul 2, 2013 20:30:47 GMT
I may be wrong, but I thought this was actually working the other way round - pollsters were picking up more people who said they voted LD in 2010 than actually did. In other words, possibly left leaning voters who considered voting LD, actually stuck with Labour, but now say they voted LD in order to be able to say they'd never do it again. Well this is speculation on my part so it would be interesting to see the actual numbersThat's not the same thing as being fashionable. I notice that both the Eastleigh by election opinion polls and the local election opinion polls underestimated the UKIP vote. I think it not unlikely that there is a significant 'shy UKIP effect' and that if (a big if) UKIP can keep their momentum going for another 2 years that this will be a major help to their vote on the day. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2013 20:35:09 GMT
I may be wrong, but I thought this was actually working the other way round - pollsters were picking up more people who said they voted LD in 2010 than actually did. In other words, possibly left leaning voters who considered voting LD, actually stuck with Labour, but now say they voted LD in order to be able to say they'd never do it again. Well this is speculation on my part so it would be interesting to see the actual numbersThat's not the same thing as being fashionable. I notice that both the Eastleigh by election opinion polls and the local election opinion polls underestimated the UKIP vote. I think it not unlikely that there is a significant 'shy UKIP effect' and that if (a big if) UKIP can keep their momentum going for another 2 years that this will be a major help to their vote on the day. UKIP started improving their position in Eastleigh due to a very active local campaign. That will not happen widely in 2015. Furthermore I doubt there would be a shy factor for an opposition party, particularly as one would not envisage UKIP supporters being shrinking violets. Faragemania will burst in a bigger way than Cleggmania. Not that UKIP will do badly. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2013 20:40:17 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 2, 2013 23:23:43 GMT
This time, hardly at all. The polls are relatively static for the main parties because there isn't a lot of enthusiasm for them at the moment
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 3, 2013 10:29:29 GMT
Almost all polls fail to handle the silly protest element - MRLP and pals regularly clock over 5% in total in ballots, but very rarely does anyone admit that this is what they will do, to a pollster. People intending to protest often often pick a really tiny party for polls, but register their silly protest in the ballot box, so in polls somewhat overstating MIN candidates and severely understating OTH. We haven't yet had a GE where UKIP were possible seat winners, so the likelihood of former MRLP votes now switching to UKIP is unknown, but not improbable Sorry, but this is completely inaccurate (as out now former resident Loony will doubtless confirm) The OMRLP frequently fail to reach 1%, and even in local elections have broken 5% relatively rarely. As far as Westminster elections go, their best performance remains 4% in the Rotherham by-election back in 1994 - they have yet to save a deposit. |
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Post by russthomas on Jul 3, 2013 11:11:01 GMT
Almost all polls fail to handle the silly protest element - MRLP and pals regularly clock over 5% in total in ballots, but very rarely does anyone admit that this is what they will do, to a pollster. People intending to protest often pick a really tiny party for polls, but register their silly protest in the ballot box, so in polls somewhat overstating MIN candidates and severely understating OTH. We haven't yet had a GE where UKIP were possible seat winners, so the likelihood of former MRLP votes now switching to UKIP is unknown, but not improbable Sorry, but this is completely inaccurate (as out now former resident Loony will doubtless confirm) The OMRLP frequently fail to reach 1%, and even in local elections have broken 5% relatively rarely. As far as Westminster elections go, their best performance remains 4% in the Rotherham by-election back in 1994 - they have yet to save a deposit. If you try reading what is said before shooting off at the hip. "MRLP and pals regularly clock over 5% in total in ballots" - MRLP just happen to be the largest of a huge set of silly parties - who collectively recorded over 5% in the 2010 General Election, and have clocked similar %s many times in earlier elections. Perhaps the simplest place to look for the proof of this is the Electoral Calculus base line for the 2015 elections, which is simply the 2010 votes cast, plus by-elections, plus main party poll swings since, OR to save you the trouble of downloading it;- CON..... LAB......LIB........UKIP..... NAT ...MIN... OTH... TOT 29.00% 37.46% 10.36% 13.64% 3.22% 1.26% 5.06% 100.00% The OTH figure is MRLP and pals. MIN is GRN, BNP and local issue Independents. NAT is SNP, PC and SF. Of more interest maybe, is the figures which directly compare with polls such as Opinium and Survation: ..........................CON..... LAB....LIB......UKIP..... NAT ...MIN... OTH... TOT Non N.I. % (GB) 29.31% 37.95% 10.01% 13.96% 2.72% 0.96% 5.09% 100.00% |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 3, 2013 11:27:04 GMT
What "pals" are you referring to, then?
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Post by russthomas on Jul 3, 2013 12:00:48 GMT
What "pals" are you referring to, then? What did your last servant die of? Ever considered using Wikipedia if you wanted to learn some facts ? These parties clocked 1.49 million votes between them in 2010, plus many more for local issue Independents, all completely ignored in polls. I think the Fancy Dress Party should be more widely supported ....and the No Candidate Deserves My Vote! party seems to have got round the None Of The Above ban Official Monster Raving Loony Party English Democrats Party Christian Party Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Labour Party National Front Christian Peoples Alliance Pirate Party UK Workers' Revolutionary Party Alliance for Green Socialism Mebyon Kernow Communist Party of Britain Animal Protection Party Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality Independents Federation UK Liberal Party Impact Party Magna Carta Party Peace Party Your Right to Democracy Party Ltd Best of a Bad Bunch Christian Movement for Great Britain Common Sense Party Democratic Nationalists Equal Parenting Alliance Residents' Association Scrap Members Allowances Social Democratic Party Socialist Equality Party UK Libertarian Party You Party Alliance for Workers' Liberty All The South Party Animals Count Apolitical Democrats A Vote Against MP Expense Abuse Basingstoke Common Man Battersea Party Better Britain Party Blaenau Voice Blue Environment Party Bus-Pass Elvis Party Campaign for Independent Politicians City Independents Clause 28 Children's Protection Christian Democrats Common Good Communist League Cornish Democrats Democratic Labour Party Direct Democracy (Communist) Party English Independence Party Fancy Dress Party Fight for an Anti-War Government Freedom and Responsibility Get Snouts Out The Trough Humanity Independent Leave-The-EU Alliance Independent People Together Independent Save Our Green Belt Integrity UK Islam Zinda Baad Platform Justice & Anti-Corruption Party Justice Party Lawfulness Trustworthiness and Transparency Lewisham People Before Profit Local Liberals Before Politics Party Middle England Party Money Reform Party Movement for Active Democracy National Democrats Nationwide Reform Party New Independent Conservative Chelsea and Fulham New Party Nobody Party No Candidate Deserves My Vote! Northampton - Save Our Public Services People's National Democratic Party Peoples Party Essex Radical Reform Group Reduce Tax On Beer Reform 2000 Party Restoration Party Science Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Tamsin Omond To The Commons Tendring First True English (Poetry) Party Trust United Voice Unity for Peace and Socialism Virtue Currency Cognitive Appraisal Party Wessex Regionalist Party Workers' Power Youth Party Scottish Socialist Party Scottish Jacobite Party Communist League Communist Party of Britain Joy of Talk Land is Power Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers Scottish Christian Party) |
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 3, 2013 12:06:08 GMT
Thank you for that list, sir. I would only put a minority of those with the Loonies, personally speaking - most purported at least to be "serious" parties?
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Post by russthomas on Jul 3, 2013 12:17:58 GMT
Thank you for that list, sir. I would only put a minority of those with the Loonies, personally speaking - most purported at least to be "serious" parties? They are treated by the Electoral Calculus system along with MPLP as OTH. For the sake of consistency in comparisons, it is conventional that other models and polls do the same. |
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 3, 2013 13:29:45 GMT
Even given that list, I struggle to see how you get to 5%.
The combined vote share for Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, BNP, Grn, SNP, PC and main NI parties in 2010 (at a quick calculation) was 98.5%
In 2005 it was 98.3%.
Even allowing a bit of room for roundings, etc... your combined others are struggling to reach 2%, let alone 5%.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2013 14:09:11 GMT
What "pals" are you referring to, then? What did your last servant die of? Ever considered using Wikipedia if you wanted to learn some facts ? These parties clocked 1.49 million votes between them in 2010, plus many more for local issue Independents, all completely ignored in polls. I think the Fancy Dress Party should be more widely supported ....and the No Candidate Deserves My Vote! party seems to have got round the None Of The Above ban According to wikipedia, 29,687,604 votes were cast in 2010. The 'major' parties got: | Conservative | 10,703,654 | | Labour | 8,606,517 | | Liberal Democrat | 6,836,248 | | UKIP | 919,471 |
The Nationalists, as you define them, got | SNP | 491,386 | | Plaid Cymru | 165,394 | | Sinn Féin | 171,942 |
The Minors, as you define them, got Subtracting those from 29,687,604 you are left with 963,428 votes. That's quite a way short of the 1.5 million you claim for Others; in addition, I've left out the local Independents you count as Others, because I wasn't sure how you wanted to define them, and of course that also includes the non-SF Northern Ireland parties. When you take out the NI parties - DUP, SDLP, Alliance and TUV, you're left with Others adding up to 615,180. That's just barely 2% (2.07), and there are some questionable ones for Others left in that total - Scottish Greens and Gerens (NI); Conservatives & Unionists, etc .. |
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Post by russthomas on Jul 3, 2013 17:38:24 GMT
Subtracting those from 29,687,604 you are left with 963,428 votes. That's quite a way short of the 1.5 million you claim for Others; in addition, I've left out the local Independents you count as Others, because I wasn't sure how you wanted to define them, and of course that also includes the non-SF Northern Ireland parties. When you take out the NI parties - DUP, SDLP, Alliance and TUV, you're left with Others adding up to 615,180. That's just barely 2% (2.07), and there are some questionable ones for Others left in that total - Scottish Greens and Gerens (NI); Conservatives & Unionists, etc .. Your logic and maths are irrefutable. There has to be something wrong with my base data - The Electoral Calculus spreadsheet download supplied as a start point for modelling projects. Looking further, in light of your analysis ..... The numbers in the MIN and OTH columns from ECs initial base do not conform with the verbal descriptions given for their content, not exactly sure why, but it appears that ONLY the largest of GRN or BNP or local Independent goes into the MIN column, second and third MINs actually end up in OTH column. Examples, Barking shows MIN 6620 (Nick Griffin BNP), OTH 1489 - must include GRN 317... Bethnal Green and Bow, data shows MIN 8532 (Respect Unity Coalition), OTH 3970 - but that OTH must include BNP 1405 and GRN 856. OR it could be that OTH is really just a dustbin that collects the difference between the recalculated first four/five/six columns, where flexed, based on averages of most recent polls, and the separately calculated total votes, which are last turnout % times electorate.. It will be necessary to research all the election results and amend this base, since it affects migration to UKIP of small party protest votes - Guardian have a spreadsheet of 2010 actuals that should help. That will keep me busy for a while. Thanks for your input. I will let you know when I know more |
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Post by erlend on Jul 4, 2013 13:08:35 GMT
I suspect that for a set of party votes Wiki isn't too bad. Polls don't purport to cover Northern Ireland and I am not sure but I didn't hink Electoral Calculus do either. Removing the majors, nationalists and minors (including Scottish Greens) (and NI) I get just over 330,000. Just over 1% but rather clumpy. The biggy as a seat is Buckingham where the speaker and his Other opponents got 40,000 votes. That clearly will not show in the polls where I suspect people answer normal parties. The biggy in party terms is the English Democrats with 64,826 votes. I suspect that if polled those people tend to show up as UKIP at the moment. Just some snippets for you to work with. The wiki page is en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010 |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 4, 2013 16:53:54 GMT
The EDs had more votes than Respect??
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 4, 2013 17:35:52 GMT
They had about 10 times as many candidates
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 4, 2013 19:17:47 GMT
If Farage is excluded from the debates I suspect the bounce may be in a negative direction.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 4, 2013 19:19:08 GMT
I suspect that Cameron will do his best to avoid the debates completely......
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2013 19:44:30 GMT
already all the indications is that he wants to ... not sure the press will leave it at that though, once you let it out of the bag can not put it back in.
He was desperate enough for them in 2010.
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