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Post by greenchristian on Oct 1, 2024 19:29:56 GMT
I've seen 'Winning Here' somewhere before... I count more than 9 non-main party candidates who won at least once in a Parliamentary election outside Northern Ireland between 1950 and 2019. Even excluding the SNP and Plaid Cymru (who were very clearly not main parties until quite some time after they won their first seats). In order of their first non-main-party win I have: 1950 Sir David Robinson (Independent Conservative, Caithness and Sutherland) I count at least 12 non-main party candidates who won at least once in a Parliamentary election outside Northern Ireland between 1950 and 2019. Assuming that the SNP and Plaid Cymru always counted as major parties (and if they didn't then the list at least doubles) 1950 Sir David Robinson (Independent Conservative, Caithness and Sutherland) 1970 S O Davies (Independent Labour, Merthyr Tydfil) 1973 by Dick Taverne (Independent Labour, Lincoln)
Feb 1974 Eddie Milne (Independent Labour, Blyth Valley) 1997 Martin Bell (Independent, Tatton)
2001 Richard Taylor (Health Concern, Wyre Forest) 2005 George Galloway (RESPECT, Bethnal Green and Bow)
2005 Peter Laws (Independent, Blaenau Gwent) 2006 by Dai Davies (Blaenau Gwent People's Voice, Blaenau Gwent) 2010 Caroline Lucas (Brighton Pavilion, Green) 2014 by Douglas Carswell (Clacton, UKIP) 2014 by Mark Reckless (Rochester and Strood, UKIP)
I haven't listed any SNP or Plaid Cymru MPs here, even though they clearly were not major parties when they won their first Westminster seats (and arguably Plaid has never been outside the Senedd) . And I may have missed instances of seats gained in a by-election where the MP lost the next general or had defected to a major by that point. And I also missed off a National Liberal.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2024 20:13:45 GMT
I've seen 'Winning Here' somewhere before... I count more than 9 non-main party candidates who won at least once in a Parliamentary election outside Northern Ireland between 1950 and 2019. Even excluding the SNP and Plaid Cymru (who were very clearly not main parties until quite some time after they won their first seats). In order of their first non-main-party win I have: 1950 Sir David Robinson (Independent Conservative, Caithness and Sutherland) I count at least 12 non-main party candidates who won at least once in a Parliamentary election outside Northern Ireland between 1950 and 2019. Assuming that the SNP and Plaid Cymru always counted as major parties (and if they didn't then the list at least doubles) 1950 Sir David Robinson (Independent Conservative, Caithness and Sutherland) 1970 S O Davies (Independent Labour, Merthyr Tydfil) 1973 by Dick Taverne (Independent Labour, Lincoln)
Feb 1974 Eddie Milne (Independent Labour, Blyth Valley) 1997 Martin Bell (Independent, Tatton)
2001 Richard Taylor (Health Concern, Wyre Forest) 2005 George Galloway (RESPECT, Bethnal Green and Bow)
2005 Peter Laws (Independent, Blaenau Gwent) 2006 by Dai Davies (Blaenau Gwent People's Voice, Blaenau Gwent) 2010 Caroline Lucas (Brighton Pavilion, Green) 2014 by Douglas Carswell (Clacton, UKIP) 2014 by Mark Reckless (Rochester and Strood, UKIP)
I haven't listed any SNP or Plaid Cymru MPs here, even though they clearly were not major parties when they won their first Westminster seats (and arguably Plaid has never been outside the Senedd) . And I may have missed instances of seats gained in a by-election where the MP lost the next general or had defected to a major by that point. And I also missed off a National Liberal.
I doubt he’s counting by-elections. |
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Post by greenchristian on Oct 1, 2024 20:16:27 GMT
I count at least 12 non-main party candidates who won at least once in a Parliamentary election outside Northern Ireland between 1950 and 2019. Assuming that the SNP and Plaid Cymru always counted as major parties (and if they didn't then the list at least doubles) 1950 Sir David Robinson (Independent Conservative, Caithness and Sutherland) 1970 S O Davies (Independent Labour, Merthyr Tydfil) 1973 by Dick Taverne (Independent Labour, Lincoln)
Feb 1974 Eddie Milne (Independent Labour, Blyth Valley) 1997 Martin Bell (Independent, Tatton)
2001 Richard Taylor (Health Concern, Wyre Forest) 2005 George Galloway (RESPECT, Bethnal Green and Bow)
2005 Peter Laws (Independent, Blaenau Gwent) 2006 by Dai Davies (Blaenau Gwent People's Voice, Blaenau Gwent) 2010 Caroline Lucas (Brighton Pavilion, Green) 2014 by Douglas Carswell (Clacton, UKIP) 2014 by Mark Reckless (Rochester and Strood, UKIP)
I haven't listed any SNP or Plaid Cymru MPs here, even though they clearly were not major parties when they won their first Westminster seats (and arguably Plaid has never been outside the Senedd) . And I may have missed instances of seats gained in a by-election where the MP lost the next general or had defected to a major by that point. And I also missed off a National Liberal.
I doubt he’s counting by-elections. Two of the by-election winners kept their seats in the next General Election without defecting to a major party. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2024 6:11:14 GMT
I don't think Dumfries & Galloway. NW Dumfries was Labour's best area. Still, SNP won Galloway in 1997. Labour won Dumfriesshire that year, obviously. Tories might have narrowly won it. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - probably Labour. Labour almost won the Tweeddale seat. ntyuk1707 might be able to help. He would know better than me. South Scotland is a fascinating region. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 2, 2024 7:10:29 GMT
I don't think Dumfries & Galloway. NW Dumfries was Labour's best area. Still, SNP won Galloway in 1997. Labour won Dumfriesshire that year, obviously. Tories might have narrowly won it. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - probably Labour. Labour almost won the Tweeddale seat. ntyuk1707 might be able to help. He would know better than me. South Scotland is a fascinating region. The Wikipedia article says that Labour had a narrow notional majority when the Dumfries and Galloway seat was created in 2005: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumfries_and_Galloway_(UK_Parliament_constituency)I was assuming 1997 would have been the same but maybe there would have been a slight difference |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2024 7:26:35 GMT
I don't think Dumfries & Galloway. NW Dumfries was Labour's best area. Still, SNP won Galloway in 1997. Labour won Dumfriesshire that year, obviously. Tories might have narrowly won it. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - probably Labour. Labour almost won the Tweeddale seat. ntyuk1707 might be able to help. He would know better than me. South Scotland is a fascinating region. The Wikipedia article says that Labour had a narrow notional majority when the Dumfries and Galloway seat was created in 2005: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumfries_and_Galloway_(UK_Parliament_constituency)I was assuming 1997 would have been the same but maybe there would have been a slight difference I’m still highly sceptical about 1997. Labour did go up in 2001. They increased more than the Tories. Labour might notionally won D&G then. I’m unsure they did in ‘97. SNP had a decent Galloway lead. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Oct 2, 2024 8:03:00 GMT
I doubt he’s counting by-elections. Two of the by-election winners kept their seats in the next General Election without defecting to a major party. I suspect the figure of 9 comes from ignoring the by-election winners who didn't win at a General Election (Dai Davies and Mark Reckless) and forgetting/ignoring David Robertson, perhaps because he did not have official Unionist opposition. Or perhaps they are not counting Martin Bell (because he was supported by Labour and the Lib Dems) and Richard Taylor (supported by the Lib Dems)? |
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YL
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Post by YL on Oct 2, 2024 8:16:13 GMT
Labour seats in 1997 they didn't win in 2024 (to the best of my knowledge): Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Ashfield Basildon South & Thurrock East Birmingham, Perry Barr Blackburn Brighton, Pavilion Dewsbury & Batley Great Yarmouth Harrow East Hornchuch & Upminster Islington North Keighley & Ilkley Leicester East Leicester South Newark Norfolk North West Romford Staffordshire Moorlands Stockton West The Wrekin Where else? Obviously I'm not including Wimbledon here because Coombe Hill wouldn't have voted Labour in 1997, but I wonder if given that Kingston & Surbiton had a decent Labour vote that year, might Labour have notionally won the seat? I believe most of the Labour strength in K&S came from Norbiton. Bristol Central Dundee Central (they won both Dundee seats comfortably in 1997; you might also ask about Arbroath & Broughty Ferry but I suspect Labour's weakness in the parts in Angus means the SNP carried that in 1997) Brigg & Immingham is possible though boundaries were very different in the area in 1997. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2024 8:49:10 GMT
1997 Wimbledon notionals would be interesting. Labour had an almost 3k lead. Do the Kingston-upon-Thames parts evaporate that? batman might know about this actually. The Kingston parts may be thinly-populated. Relative to the rest of Wimbledon. Labour did well in K&S (1997). Their vote then crashed in 2001. That was largely tactical voting, obviously. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 2, 2024 10:56:46 GMT
Labour would not have won the present Wrekin and Newark constituencies in 1997. Conversely, they would have won the 1997 version of Perry Barr and Staffordshire Moorlands this year (and presumably 1997's Basildon, though I'm not as familiar with that part of the country). Labour would certainly have won the "old" Basildon seat this year, though not by anything like as much as in 1997. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 2, 2024 11:28:54 GMT
Labour would not have won the present Wrekin and Newark constituencies in 1997. Conversely, they would have won the 1997 version of Perry Barr and Staffordshire Moorlands this year (and presumably 1997's Basildon, though I'm not as familiar with that part of the country). Labour would certainly have won the "old" Basildon seat this year, though not by anything like as much as in 1997. Do you mean the 'old' 1983-97 Basildon or the 'old' 1997-2010 Basildon? I know the former would have voted Labour because I worked out those numbers. Not so sure about the latter although I think they probably would. |
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 2, 2024 11:46:50 GMT
1997 Wimbledon notionals would be interesting. Labour had an almost 3k lead. Do the Kingston-upon-Thames parts evaporate that? batman might know about this actually. The Kingston parts may be thinly-populated. Relative to the rest of Wimbledon. Labour did well in K&S (1997). Their vote then crashed in 2001. That was largely tactical voting, obviously. The 2024 Wimbledon doesn't include either Coombe ward. Instead it has pre-2022 Green Lane and St James and Old Malden wards which were likely to be fairly Tory in 1997, with Labour third. But if they had been in Wimbledon then I imagine Labour would have squeezed the Lib Dem vote rather than vice versa so it could be that Labour would have got close enough to the Tories in the two wards to keep a majority across the whole seat. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Oct 2, 2024 15:14:57 GMT
I make it 20 seats that the Tories held this time which wouldn't have voted for them in 1997, most of which are pretty easily explicable:
6 which they (would have) gained in 2001: Castle Point, Hornchurch, Isle of Wight East, NW Norfolk, Romford, Tatton
5 in Scotland: Berwickshire, Dumfries, Dumfriesshire, Gordon, West Aberdeenshire
2 Hindu-heavy: Harrow East, Leicester East
2 where the LDs collapsed and no-one has refilled the void: Hereford, Torridge & Tavistock
5 other gains from Labour: Brigg & Immingham, Keighley, Staffs Moorlands, Stockton West, Wyre Forest
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Post by andrewp on Oct 2, 2024 15:24:00 GMT
I make it 20 seats that the Tories held this time which wouldn't have voted for them in 1997, most of which are pretty easily explicable: 6 which they (would have) gained in 2001: Castle Point, Hornchurch, Isle of Wight East, NW Norfolk, Romford, Tatton 5 in Scotland: Berwickshire, Dumfries, Dumfriesshire, Gordon, West Aberdeenshire 2 Hindu-heavy: Harrow East, Leicester East 2 where the LDs collapsed and no-one has refilled the void: Hereford, Torridge & Tavistock 5 other gains from Labour: Brigg & Immingham, Keighley, Staffs Moorlands, Stockton West, Wyre Forest Would they have won Central Devon in 1997? Maybe just? |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 2, 2024 20:44:33 GMT
I don't think Dumfries & Galloway. NW Dumfries was Labour's best area. Still, SNP won Galloway in 1997. Labour won Dumfriesshire that year, obviously. Tories might have narrowly won it. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - probably Labour. Labour almost won the Tweeddale seat. ntyuk1707 might be able to help. He would know better than me. South Scotland is a fascinating region. While Dumfries was a stronghold for Labour in the late 90s and early 00s, based on notionals from Rallings & Thrasher the Dumfries and Galloway constituency would have voted SNP at 1997 general election. The approximate breakdown would have been 32.6% SNP, 29.3% Labour, 28.7% Conservative. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 2, 2024 21:06:35 GMT
I don't think Dumfries & Galloway. NW Dumfries was Labour's best area. Still, SNP won Galloway in 1997. Labour won Dumfriesshire that year, obviously. Tories might have narrowly won it. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - probably Labour. Labour almost won the Tweeddale seat. ntyuk1707 might be able to help. He would know better than me. South Scotland is a fascinating region. While Dumfries was a stronghold for Labour in the late 90s and early 00s, based on notionals from Rallings & Thrasher the Dumfries and Galloway constituency would have voted SNP at 1997 general election. The approximate breakdown would have been 32.6% SNP, 29.3% Labour, 28.7% Conservative. And similarly now it’s looking like an interesting three way marginal |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 2, 2024 22:30:34 GMT
While Dumfries was a stronghold for Labour in the late 90s and early 00s, based on notionals from Rallings & Thrasher the Dumfries and Galloway constituency would have voted SNP at 1997 general election. The approximate breakdown would have been 32.6% SNP, 29.3% Labour, 28.7% Conservative. And similarly now it’s looking like an interesting three way marginal True, although support for each of the party's has shifted across the constituency. Where in 1997 Wigtownshire was the SNP's strongest area and Dumfries was their weakest, the opposite is now true. Wigtownshire is now the Conservatives best area in the constituency and they have made in-roads in parts of Dumfries while dropping back slightly in Kirkcudbrightshire which was traditionally the most Conservative-leaning part of the seat. Support for Labour in the constituency has not changed as drastically, collapsing in Stranraer for the Conservatives. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2024 18:11:14 GMT
Labour would certainly have won the "old" Basildon seat this year, though not by anything like as much as in 1997. Do you mean the 'old' 1983-97 Basildon or the 'old' 1997-2010 Basildon? I know the former would have voted Labour because I worked out those numbers. Not so sure about the latter although I think they probably would. What about the current Clacton seat? Labour carried it in 2001, IIRC. I'm not sure about 1997, however. Harwich had a huge Referendum vote. That's a big reason Labour won. Labour increased their lead in 2001. Clacton would've been Labour that year? However, not in 1997 though, IIRC. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 4, 2024 8:36:20 GMT
I believe someone may have posted notional results for various historical elections on the relevant general election constituency threads..
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2024 9:20:43 GMT
I believe someone may have posted notional results for various historical elections on the relevant general election constituency threads.. That would involve reading those threads… |
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