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Post by johnloony on Jul 13, 2023 9:36:55 GMT
I noticed that one year ago, I tweeted: “If a woman becomes PM of the UK on 6th September 2022, then from 28th August 2023 onwards, the UK will have had female Conservative prime ministers for a longer period of time than male Conservative prime ministers since 1974.” which meant that I must have been assuming that the new Prime Minister coming into office on 6th September was going to stay in office for 11 months  |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2023 7:18:47 GMT
Councils the Tories no longer control where they had majorities in 1997, IIRC
Arun
Bracknell Forest
Cambridgeshire
Huntingdonshire
Macclesfield / Cheshire East
Spelthorne
Surrey Heath
Wandsworth
Westminster
Wokingham
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Post by andrewp on Jul 15, 2023 9:06:26 GMT
Councils the Tories no longer control where they had majorities in 1997, IIRC Arun Bracknell Forest Cambridgeshire Huntingdonshire Macclesfield / Cheshire East Spelthorne Surrey Heath Wandsworth Westminster Wokingham Councils where the reverse is true ( currently Conservative majority but weren’t in 1997) . A few of these will be lost next year before we get to the general election. Adur Basildon Bexley Blaby Braintree Breckland Cornwall Dartford Derbyshire Devon Dorset Dudley East Cambridgeshire East Sussex Epping Forest Essex Fareham Fenland Fylde Gloucester Harlow Harrow Havant Hertfordshire Hillingdon Lancashire Leicestershire New Forest Newcastle Under Lyme Norfolk North Kesteven North Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire Nottinghamshire Nuneaton and Bedworth Redditch Reigate and Banstead Rushcliffe Rushmoor Sevenoaks Shropshire Solihull South Holland South Norfolk Staffordshire Suffolk Test Valley Thurrock Torbay Walsall Warwickshire Wiltshire Wychavon Wyre Wyre Forest |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 15, 2023 9:24:20 GMT
Councils the Tories no longer control where they had majorities in 1997, IIRC Arun Bracknell Forest Cambridgeshire Huntingdonshire Macclesfield / Cheshire East Spelthorne Surrey Heath Wandsworth Westminster Wokingham Now do Labour (make sure you include Crewe & Nantwich / Cheshire East) |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 15, 2023 9:33:09 GMT
Hmmm, isn't the latter quite a bit harder for Labour to win?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 15, 2023 9:54:27 GMT
Hmmm, isn't the latter quite a bit harder for Labour to win? Yes - ands its quite a bit harder for the Conservatives to win. Crewe & Nantwich had a large Labour majority in 1997 and Congleton a masive Lib Dem majority (the Conservatives weren't even the second largest party). So obviously it is not a like for like comparison, which is my point.. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 15, 2023 9:56:20 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 15, 2023 10:10:33 GMT
Councils where the reverse is true ( currently Conseravtive majority but weren’t in 1997) . A few of these will be lost next year before we get to the general election. Adur BasildonBexley Blaby Braintree
BrecklandCornwall Dartford
DerbyshireDevon Dorset DudleyEast Cambridgeshire East Sussex Epping Forest Essex Fareham FenlandFylde Gloucester
HarlowHarrow Havant Hertfordshire Hillingdon
LancashireLeicestershire New Forest Newcastle Under LymeNorfolk North Kesteven North Lincolnshire
North East Lincolnshire
Nottinghamshire
Nuneaton and Bedworth
RedditchReigate and Banstead Rushcliffe Rushmoor Sevenoaks Shropshire Solihull South Holland South Norfolk StaffordshireSuffolk Test Valley ThurrockTorbay Walsall Warwickshire Wiltshire Wychavon Wyre Wyre ForestJust those bolded were Labour controlled in 1997. There are numerous others which are now under no overall control which had Labour majorities then. Without going very far from where I'm sitting, I can think of Dacorum, Hertsmere, North Hertfordshire, Welwyn Hatfield, Castle Point, Peterborough, Great Yarmouth, Slough.. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 15, 2023 10:15:21 GMT
As already said further Tory losses and Labour gains are likely next year, and quite possibly in 2025 too given how good the Tory results were for those councils last time - even if Labour have won a GE by then it could still happen if they are enjoying a honeymoon. Comparisons might be a bit more useful then?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2023 10:15:39 GMT
Councils the Tories no longer control where they had majorities in 1997, IIRC Arun Bracknell Forest Cambridgeshire Huntingdonshire Macclesfield / Cheshire East Spelthorne Surrey Heath Wandsworth Westminster Wokingham FTFY Pete Whitehead |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2023 17:29:16 GMT
Councils the Tories no longer control where they had majorities in 1997, IIRC Arun Bracknell Forest Cambridgeshire Huntingdonshire Macclesfield / Cheshire East Spelthorne Surrey Heath Wandsworth Westminster Wokingham Now do Labour (make sure you include Crewe & Nantwich / Cheshire East) Labour majority councils in 1983 which Lab no longer control, IIRC Ashfield Basildon Bolton Carlisle Copeland Derbyshire Great Grimsby Harlow Kingston upon Hull Langbaurgh / Redcar and Cleveland Newcastle-under-Lyme Nuneaton & Bedworth North Warwickshire Northumberland Nottinghamshire Slough Staffordshire Thurrock Watford Welwyn Hatfield |
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Post by borisminor on Jul 17, 2023 8:56:51 GMT
Outside of the three major parties (and Ken Livingstone in 2000), only one minor party candidate has ever won a ward in a London mayoral election. Lindsay German won the Spitalfields and Banglatown ward in 2004 for Respect. Even then, the only time the Liberal Democrats won a ward was winning Bermondsey and southwest London wards in 2004. The slight caveat with this is - ward data doesn't seem to exist for 2000; however I think it can be safely assumed that no minor party was close to winning a ward then unless I can be told otherwise.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 17, 2023 9:16:19 GMT
Outside of the three major parties (and Ken Livingstone in 2000), only one minor party candidate has ever won a ward in a London mayoral election. Lindsay German won the Spitalfields and Banglatown ward in 2004 for Respect. Even then, the only time the Liberal Democrats won a ward was winning Bermondsey and southwest London wards in 2004. The slight caveat with this is - ward data doesn't seem to exist for 2000; however I think it can be safely assumed that no minor party was close to winning a ward then unless I can be told otherwise. Breakdowns for wards don’t exist for 2000 because then they did the count properly: by hand, in each constituency separately, instead of using the diabolical scanning machines which can see the barcodes for each ward. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2023 9:24:44 GMT
Outside of the three major parties (and Ken Livingstone in 2000), only one minor party candidate has ever won a ward in a London mayoral election. Lindsay German won the Spitalfields and Banglatown ward in 2004 for Respect. Even then, the only time the Liberal Democrats won a ward was winning Bermondsey and southwest London wards in 2004. The slight caveat with this is - ward data doesn't seem to exist for 2000; however I think it can be safely assumed that no minor party was close to winning a ward then unless I can be told otherwise. Breakdowns for wards don’t exist for 2000 because then they did the count properly: by hand, in each constituency separately, instead of using the diabolical scanning machines which can see the barcodes for each ward. No they didn't. They used optical vote recognition and scanning machines in 2000. |
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Post by borisminor on Jul 17, 2023 9:29:42 GMT
Breakdowns for wards don’t exist for 2000 because then they did the count properly: by hand, in each constituency separately, instead of using the diabolical scanning machines which can see the barcodes for each ward. No they didn't. They used optical vote recognition and scanning machines in 2000. Why does no ward breakdown exist - is it because the results weren't collated or because they weren't published in that format. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2023 9:59:04 GMT
No they didn't. They used optical vote recognition and scanning machines in 2000. Why does no ward breakdown exist - is it because the results weren't collated or because they weren't published in that format. Dunno. They were certainly never published and I don't think even the borough breakdown was published. |
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Post by batman on Jul 17, 2023 10:20:55 GMT
Breakdowns for wards don’t exist for 2000 because then they did the count properly: by hand, in each constituency separately, instead of using the diabolical scanning machines which can see the barcodes for each ward. No they didn't. They used optical vote recognition and scanning machines in 2000. David is correct. I remember the count (at Hounslow Town Hall in my case) very well. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 17, 2023 10:56:15 GMT
Now do Labour (make sure you include Crewe & Nantwich / Cheshire East) Labour majority councils in 1983 which Lab no longer control, IIRC Ashfield Basildon Bolton Carlisle
CopelandDerbyshire Great Grimsby Harlow Kingston upon Hull Langbaurgh / Redcar and Cleveland Newcastle-under-Lyme Nuneaton & Bedworth North Warwickshire Northumberland Nottinghamshire Slough Staffordshire Thurrock Watford Welwyn Hatfield Labour don't control these authorities for the very good reason that they no longer exist. They do have a clear majority on the new Cumberland council, though. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 10:59:50 GMT
Labour majority councils in 1983 which Lab no longer control, IIRC Ashfield Basildon Bolton Carlisle
CopelandDerbyshire Great Grimsby Harlow Kingston upon Hull Langbaurgh / Redcar and Cleveland Newcastle-under-Lyme Nuneaton & Bedworth North Warwickshire Northumberland Nottinghamshire Slough Staffordshire Thurrock Watford Welwyn Hatfield Labour don't control these authorities for the very good reason that they no longer exist. They do have a clear majority on the new Cumberland council, though. FTFY Labour majority councils in 1983 which Lab no longer control, IIRC Ashfield Basildon Bolton Derbyshire Great Grimsby / North East Lincolnshire Harlow Kingston upon Hull Langbaurgh / Redcar and Cleveland Newcastle-under-Lyme Nuneaton & Bedworth North Warwickshire Northumberland Nottinghamshire Slough Staffordshire Thurrock Watford Welwyn Hatfield |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 17, 2023 12:14:17 GMT
Breakdowns for wards don’t exist for 2000 because then they did the count properly: by hand, in each constituency separately, instead of using the diabolical scanning machines which can see the barcodes for each ward. No they didn't. They used optical vote recognition and scanning machines in 2000. Oh yes, I remember now. I don’t know why I thought it was hand-counted, because I remember being annoyed that it wasn’t. But it was counted in Croydon instead of doing it in the big place in London. I also remember that it was slowed down by dust getting into the machines - and that in itself was because they were laid out on a layer of green baize instead of just being on the table normally. |
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