maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 6,188 
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Post by maxque on Jan 7, 2021 20:53:41 GMT
A target seat is a target seat. It gets campaign support. And the Labour Party never edits its target list from day 1 of the election campaign? You continue to send activists to no hope seats on election day just for fun? The result proves it wasn't a no-hope seat. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 7, 2021 20:53:56 GMT
Seats Labour won in 1997 which had never before been Labour at general election time (counting close predecessors but excluding new seats created for that year): Birmingham Edgbaston, Blackpool North & Fleetwood, Brighton Pavilion, Bristol West, City of Chester, Crosby, Edinburgh Pentlands, Enfield Southgate, Finchley & Golders Green, Harrow West, Harwich, Leeds North West, Leeds North East, Morecambe & Lunesdale, Shrewsbury & Atcham, South Thanet, Warwick & Leamington, Wirral West.
Seats the Conservatives won in 2019 which had never before been Conservative at general election time, or had not been Conservative since before 1918 (counting close predecessors): Ashfield, Bolsover, Blyth Valley, Burnley, Don Valley, Leigh, Rother Valley, Workington, Wrexham.
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Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Posts: 30,963
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 7, 2021 20:58:10 GMT
This claim is utter bollocks. It is a Trumpian lie. It is absolutely true that Labour canvassers were there on the day. I’m sure they were ‘fighting to win’ but the only realistic thing they were doing was playing spoiler. Or else your data was unusable. What you need to recognise is that many local activists will work in their local seat on the day simply because it's their local seat. Even if it's not a likely win. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 7,138
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Post by iain on Jan 7, 2021 20:59:06 GMT
And the Labour Party never edits its target list from day 1 of the election campaign? You continue to send activists to no hope seats on election day just for fun? The result proves it wasn't a no-hope seat. Labour finished 12.5% behind in Cities and 20% behind in Finchley .... |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 7,138
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Post by iain on Jan 7, 2021 20:59:35 GMT
It is absolutely true that Labour canvassers were there on the day. I’m sure they were ‘fighting to win’ but the only realistic thing they were doing was playing spoiler. Or else your data was unusable. What you need to recognise is that many local activists will work in their local seat on the day simply because it's their local seat. Even if it's not a likely win. Of course, and that happens in every party - but that’s not what happened here. We’re talking about where activists were directed to. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 7, 2021 21:40:45 GMT
Labour data also reportedly told them that Uxbridge & South Ruislip was on a knife edge.
Liberal Democrats thought Jo Swinson was going to continue to be an MP and could neglect her constituency to go and annoy the rest of the UK.
Sometimes party get the intelligence wrong and deploy accordingly.
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Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Posts: 30,963
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 7, 2021 21:41:15 GMT
What you need to recognise is that many local activists will work in their local seat on the day simply because it's their local seat. Even if it's not a likely win. Of course, and that happens in every party - but that’s not what happened here. We’re talking about where activists were directed to. Well....I honestly don't know if that happened or not. But I'd be very surprised if they were directed there given that the neighbouring Barnet seats appeared more likely wins. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 9, 2021 12:33:59 GMT
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AJS
Top Poster
Posts: 23,300
Member is Online
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Post by AJS on Jan 14, 2021 2:19:43 GMT
Perhaps more of an observation than a fact. Interesting comment about Sheffield South East on UKPR from Matt Wilson: "Labour now rely on Darnall. Their majority is almost soley on votes in Darnall and while Corbyn went down poorly in mining villages like Beighton and Mosborough, Labour’s vote in Darnall was huge. Under the new boundaries its likely this seat will take in some of Burgreave from my constituency. A similarly diverse place like this will help Labour even if Mosborough and Beighton swings further away from us" ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/sheffieldsoutheast/#comments |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 14, 2021 8:12:36 GMT
Perhaps more of an observation than a fact. Interesting comment about Sheffield South East on UKPR from Matt Wilson: "Labour now rely on Darnall. Their majority is almost soley on votes in Darnall and while Corbyn went down poorly in mining villages like Beighton and Mosborough, Labour’s vote in Darnall was huge. Under the new boundaries its likely this seat will take in some of Burgreave from my constituency. A similarly diverse place like this will help Labour even if Mosborough and Beighton swings further away from us" ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/sheffieldsoutheast/#commentsMost of the proposals I've seen on here suggest removing Darnall and adding a Rotherham ward which would change the dynamics a bit but I don't see Labour being in any danger here either way. It's a shame Matt doesn't post here anymore (I can do without Tim Jones though) |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 2,058
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Post by YL on Jan 14, 2021 8:26:58 GMT
Perhaps more of an observation than a fact. Interesting comment about Sheffield South East on UKPR from Matt Wilson: "Labour now rely on Darnall. Their majority is almost soley on votes in Darnall and while Corbyn went down poorly in mining villages like Beighton and Mosborough, Labour’s vote in Darnall was huge. Under the new boundaries its likely this seat will take in some of Burgreave from my constituency. A similarly diverse place like this will help Labour even if Mosborough and Beighton swings further away from us" ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/sheffieldsoutheast/#commentsMost of the proposals I've seen on here suggest removing Darnall and adding a Rotherham ward which would change the dynamics a bit but I don't see Labour being in any danger here either way. It's a shame Matt doesn't post here anymore (I can do without Tim Jones though) Yeah, there's no need for it to take any of Burngreave which can stay where it is now. If you split a ward SE can stay more or less unchanged but with a bit more of Richmond (little electoral effect); if you don't then as you say it would lose Darnall and gain the rest of Richmond and a Rotherham ward, which would harm Labour considerably but probably not enough to turn it notionally Tory. I think calling Mosborough and Beighton "mining villages" is a little misleading. Obviously they once were, and there is still something of that character, but basically they are modern suburbs. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 8,094
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 14, 2021 8:52:19 GMT
Perhaps more of an observation than a fact. Interesting comment about Sheffield South East on UKPR from Matt Wilson: "Labour now rely on Darnall. Their majority is almost soley on votes in Darnall and while Corbyn went down poorly in mining villages like Beighton and Mosborough, Labour’s vote in Darnall was huge. Under the new boundaries its likely this seat will take in some of Burgreave from my constituency. A similarly diverse place like this will help Labour even if Mosborough and Beighton swings further away from us" ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/sheffieldsoutheast/#commentsBurngreave isn't diverse. It's almost solidly South Asian. Ditto Darnall. As demonstrated by his earlier sentence that the voting is hugely solid. That's not diversity, that's solidity. |
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 184
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Post by ilerda on Jan 14, 2021 11:36:38 GMT
Clive Betts was insistent in zombie review 1 or 2 (or maybe both) that Sheffield SE take part of Burngreave to bring it up to quota when actually there were better solutions that incoporated parts of areas actually in SE Sheffield.
I can only imagine what his motivations for that might have been...
On a separate note, by far the best way to deal with the area in this review is to split Richmond between SE and Heeley. That allows for just one cross-border seat in Sheffield (Penistone and Stocksbridge) and allows Rotherham/Doncaster/N Lincs to work together in a simple and cleaner way.
I quite agree with YL that Mosborough and Beighton are no longer mining villages. Their original cores may have been, but now they are some of the most ordinary (and pro-Tory) suburbs in all of Sheffield.
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 19, 2021 11:51:49 GMT
Seat flow matrix 1929 with base 1923:-  |
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 22, 2021 12:01:42 GMT
The Gini coefficient for English constituency boundaries 1918-1979:-  The boundaries were a smidgeon fairer in 1923 than 1918 (fluke?). The 1974 figure (base year 1965) does not compare well with 1918, 1950 or 1955. Today's boundaries are far fairer (pre review) 5.7 in 2019. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jan 22, 2021 12:19:22 GMT
The Gini coefficient for English constituency boundaries 1918-1979:- The boundaries were a smidgeon fairer in 1923 than 1918 (fluke?). The 1974 figure (base year 1965) does not compare well with 1918, 1950 or 1955. Today's boundaries are far fairer (pre review) 5.7 in 2019. The disparity in some countries is far far worse and as you point out by historical standards our seats aren’t out of proportion at all really. I would favour 1x 20-year reviews every second census. With a 10% rule that could be breached if an exceptional case was made to Parliament. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 22, 2021 13:20:56 GMT
The Gini coefficient for English constituency boundaries 1918-1979:- The boundaries were a smidgeon fairer in 1923 than 1918 (fluke?). The 1974 figure (base year 1965) does not compare well with 1918, 1950 or 1955. Today's boundaries are far fairer (pre review) 5.7 in 2019. The disparity in some countries is far far worse and as you point out by historical standards our seats aren’t out of proportion at all really. I would favour 1x 20-year reviews every second census. With a 10% rule that could be breached if an exceptional case was made to Parliament. Let's see how this review progresses especially the feedback from the commissioners about ward splitting. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 23, 2021 18:32:02 GMT
In 1931 Labour lost their deposit in these constituencies despite being the only opposition candidate to the Conservatives/National Liberals:
South Moulton
Petersfield
Horsham & Worthing
Ripon
The list would have been longer had not many Conservative MPs representing rural constituencies been elected unopposed.
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 25, 2021 12:18:08 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 25, 2021 12:23:19 GMT
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