pl
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Post by pl on May 4, 2020 1:10:07 GMT
Which is the 1997C (notional) seat which was won by Labour in 2019? I've been wracking my brain, and I know i'll feel stupid when you tell me. Canterbury is my guess. Of course - I'd worked my way through London and the Mets, but forgot Canterbury.
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Post by timrollpickering on May 4, 2020 9:40:38 GMT
And Westmorland & Lonsdale is the Lib Dem one.
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Post by hullenedge on May 13, 2020 9:33:00 GMT
Comparing Labour's performance in 1935/1983/2019 (winning/losing margin in contested seats):- Labour doing better last year than 1983 where they won but slightly worse where they lost.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 14, 2020 19:34:29 GMT
The 2019 General Election was the first since 1997 when Plaid Cymru’s Parliamentary party was the same makeup as at the start of previous election (1992-1997 and 2017-2019)
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Post by Andrew_S on May 15, 2020 1:24:00 GMT
Mid Derbyshire is also known as "The Rabbit".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2020 15:31:22 GMT
Vote UK forum 2019 General Election prediction based on constituency polls
CON 335 (+18) LAB 232 (-30) SNP 36 (+1) LD 23 (+11)
CON gain from LAB (28): Ashfield; Barrow & Furness; Bassetlaw; Bedford; Bishop Auckland; Blackpool South; Bolton North East; Crewe & Nantwich; Darlington; Derby North; Dudley North; Great Grimsby; Ipswich; Keighley; Kensington; Lincoln; Newcastle-under-Lyme; Penistone & Stocksbridge; Peterborough; Rother Valley; Stockton South; Stoke-on-Trent North; Stroud; Vale of Clwyd; Wakefield; Warrington South; Workington; Wrexham
CON gain from LD (1): North Norfolk
LAB gain from CON (1): Hastings & Rye
LD gain from CON (9): Cheadle; Cheltenham; Guildford; Hazel Grove; Richmond Park; South Cambridgeshire; St Albans; St Ives; Winchester
LD gain from LAB (1): Sheffield Hallam
LD gain from SNP (1): North East Fife
PC gain from LAB (1): Ynys Mon
SNP gain from CON (1): Stirling
SNP gain from LAB (1): Midlothian
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Post by hullenedge on May 23, 2020 11:55:46 GMT
Thinking about 1979...the disappointing Conservative performance in Greater Manchester would not have been a disappointment on the 1983 boundaries:-
Middleton & Prestwich Lab hold - Bury South Con gain Bolton East Lab hold - Bolton NE Con gain Bury & Radcliffe Lab hold - Bury North Con gain
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 23, 2020 12:29:36 GMT
Bolton West too I think, also Stockport
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Post by hullenedge on May 23, 2020 12:41:22 GMT
Bolton West too I think, also Stockport Reckon that they were Con holds in 1979.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 10:56:56 GMT
Ballot papers faced by Prime Ministers, based on original post by psephos1900 | N/A | Prime Minister sat in House of Lords | 1906 | Stirling Burghsα | Liberal (unopposed) | 1910 (Jan) | Fife Eastern | Liberal Conservative | 1910 (Dec) | Fife Eastern | Liberal Conservative | 1918 | Caernarvon Boroughs | Liberal (Coalition coupon) Independent | 1922 | Glasgow Centralβ | Conservative, Labour, Liberal | 1923 | Bewdley | Conservative, Liberal | 1924 | Aberavon | Labour, Liberal | 1929 | Bewdley | Conservative, Liberal, Labour | 1931 | Seaham | National Labour, Labour, Communist | 1935 | Bewdley | Conservative (unopposed) | 1945 | Woodfordγ | Conservative Independent | 1950 | Walthamstow Westδ | Labour, Conservative Liberal, Independent Labour | 1951 | Walthamstow West | Labour, Conservative | 1955 | Warwick and Leamington | Conservative, Labour | 1959 | Bromley | Conservative, Labour | 1964 | Kinross and West Perthshire | Conservative, Labour SNP, Communist | 1966 | Huyton | Labour, Conservative National Teenage Party | 1970 | Huyton | Labour, Conservative Democratic Party, Communist | 1974 (Feb) | Sidcupε | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Independent
| 1974 (Oct) | Huyton | Labour, Conservative, Liberal | 1979 | Cardiff South East | Labour, Conservative, Plaid Cymru Severnside Libertarian, Socialist, Communist | 1983 | Finchley | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Ecology/Women for Life on Earth OMRLP, Independents x 6 | 1987 | Finchley | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Independents x 2 | 1992 | Huntingdon | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Liberal, Green, OMRLP, Natural Law Independent x 3 | 1997 | Huntingdon | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Referendum, UKIP Independent x 2 | 2001 | Sedgefield | Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat UKIP, Socialist Labour Rock n Roll Loony, Women for Life on Earth | 2005 | Sedgefield | Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat Independent x 5 UKIP, NF, Veritas OMRLP, Blair Must Go Party Senior Citizens Party, The Pensioners Party | 2010 | Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, UKIP Independents x 3 | 2015 | Witney | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Wessex Regionalist, Land Party Green, National Health Action Reduce VAT In Sport, Vote Elmo Independents x 2 | 2017 | Maidenhead | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Green, UKIP, Animal Welfare Independents x 3 OMRLP, CPA, Give Me Back Elmo, Just Political Party | 2019 | Uxbridge and South Ruislip | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Green, UKIP, OMRLP Independents x 6 |
Notes: α: Prime Minister dissolved Parliament almost immediately on taking office. Previous PM was member for Manchester East β: Prime Minister dissolved Parliament almost immediately on taking office. Previous PM was member for Caernavon Boroughs γ: Prime Minister was outgoing member for Epping δ: Prime Minister was outgoing member for Limehouse ε: Prime Minister was outgoing member for Bexley
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Post by timrollpickering on May 24, 2020 11:33:37 GMT
Didn't the 1980s Lord Buckethead stand for the "Gremloids" party?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 11:34:55 GMT
Ballot papers faced by Prime Ministers, based on original post by psephos 1900 | N/A | Prime Minister sat in House of Lords | 1906 | Stirling Burghsα | Liberal (unopposed) | 1910 (Jan) | Fife Eastern | Liberal Conservative | 1910 (Dec) | Fife Eastern | Liberal Conservative | 1918 | Caernarvon Boroughs | Liberal (Coalition coupon) Independent | 1922 | Glasgow Centralβ | Conservative, Labour, Liberal | 1923 | Bewdley | Conservative, Liberal | 1924 | Aberavon | Labour, Liberal | 1929 | Bewdley | Conservative, Liberal, Labour | 1931 | Seaham | National Labour, Labour, Communist | 1935 | Bewdley | Conservative (unopposed) | 1945 | Woodfordγ | Conservative Independent | 1950 | Walthamstow Westδ | Labour, Conservative Liberal, Independent Labour | 1951 | Walthamstow West | Labour, Conservative | 1955 | Warwick and Leamington | Conservative, Labour | 1959 | Bromley | Conservative, Labour | 1964 | Kinross and West Perthshire | Conservative, Labour SNP, Communist | 1966 | Huyton | Labour, Conservative National Teenage Party | 1970 | Huyton | Labour, Conservative Democratic Party, Communist | 1974 (Feb) | Sidcupε | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Independent
| 1974 (Oct) | Huyton | Labour, Conservative, Liberal | 1979 | Cardiff South East | Labour, Conservative, Plaid Cymru Severnside Libertarian, Socialist, Communist | 1983 | Finchley | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Ecology/Women for Life on Earth OMRLP, Independents x 6 | 1987 | Finchley | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Independents x 2 | 1992 | Huntingdon | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Liberal, Green, OMRLP, Natural Law Independent x 3 | 1997 | Huntingdon | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Referendum, UKIP Independent x 2 | 2001 | Sedgefield | Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat UKIP, Socialist Labour Rock n Roll Loony, Women for Life on Earth | 2005 | Sedgefield | Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat Independent x 5 UKIP, NF, Veritas OMRLP, Blair Must Go Party Senior Citizens Party, The Pensioners Party | 2010 | Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, UKIP Independents x 3 | 2015 | Witney | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Wessex Regionalist, Land Party Green, National Health Action Reduce VAT In Sport, Vote Elmo Independents x 2 | 2017 | Maidenhead | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Green, UKIP, Animal Welfare Independents x 3 OMRLP, CPA, Give Me Back Elmo, Just Political Party | 2019 | Uxbridge and South Ruislip | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Green, UKIP, OMRLP Independents x 6 |
Notes: α: Prime Minister dissolved Parliament almost immediately on taking office. Previous PM was member for Manchester East β: Prime Minister dissolved Parliament almost immediately on taking office. Previous PM was member for Caernavon Boroughs γ: Prime Minister was outgoing member for Epping δ: Prime Minister was outgoing member for Limehouse ε: Prime Minister was outgoing member for Bexley Kinross & West Perthshire by election is missing?
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 12:13:48 GMT
Didn't the 1980s Lord Buckethead stand for the "Gremloids" party? I think the original post and related discussion had the usual did-they didn't they debate about party labels back in the 1980s. I can certainly change it to Gremloids.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 12:15:34 GMT
Ballot papers faced by Prime Ministers, based on original post by psephos 1900 | N/A | Prime Minister sat in House of Lords | 1906 | Stirling Burghsα | Liberal (unopposed) | 1910 (Jan) | Fife Eastern | Liberal Conservative | 1910 (Dec) | Fife Eastern | Liberal Conservative | 1918 | Caernarvon Boroughs | Liberal (Coalition coupon) Independent | 1922 | Glasgow Centralβ | Conservative, Labour, Liberal | 1923 | Bewdley | Conservative, Liberal | 1924 | Aberavon | Labour, Liberal | 1929 | Bewdley | Conservative, Liberal, Labour | 1931 | Seaham | National Labour, Labour, Communist | 1935 | Bewdley | Conservative (unopposed) | 1945 | Woodfordγ | Conservative Independent | 1950 | Walthamstow Westδ | Labour, Conservative Liberal, Independent Labour | 1951 | Walthamstow West | Labour, Conservative | 1955 | Warwick and Leamington | Conservative, Labour | 1959 | Bromley | Conservative, Labour | 1964 | Kinross and West Perthshire | Conservative, Labour SNP, Communist | 1966 | Huyton | Labour, Conservative National Teenage Party | 1970 | Huyton | Labour, Conservative Democratic Party, Communist | 1974 (Feb) | Sidcupε | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Independent
| 1974 (Oct) | Huyton | Labour, Conservative, Liberal | 1979 | Cardiff South East | Labour, Conservative, Plaid Cymru Severnside Libertarian, Socialist, Communist | 1983 | Finchley | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Ecology/Women for Life on Earth OMRLP, Independents x 6 | 1987 | Finchley | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Independents x 2 | 1992 | Huntingdon | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Liberal, Green, OMRLP, Natural Law Independent x 3 | 1997 | Huntingdon | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Referendum, UKIP Independent x 2 | 2001 | Sedgefield | Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat UKIP, Socialist Labour Rock n Roll Loony, Women for Life on Earth | 2005 | Sedgefield | Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat Independent x 5 UKIP, NF, Veritas OMRLP, Blair Must Go Party Senior Citizens Party, The Pensioners Party | 2010 | Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, UKIP Independents x 3 | 2015 | Witney | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Wessex Regionalist, Land Party Green, National Health Action Reduce VAT In Sport, Vote Elmo Independents x 2 | 2017 | Maidenhead | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Green, UKIP, Animal Welfare Independents x 3 OMRLP, CPA, Give Me Back Elmo, Just Political Party | 2019 | Uxbridge and South Ruislip | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat Green, UKIP, OMRLP Independents x 6 |
Notes: α: Prime Minister dissolved Parliament almost immediately on taking office. Previous PM was member for Manchester East β: Prime Minister dissolved Parliament almost immediately on taking office. Previous PM was member for Caernavon Boroughs γ: Prime Minister was outgoing member for Epping δ: Prime Minister was outgoing member for Limehouse ε: Prime Minister was outgoing member for Bexley Kinross & West Perthshire by election is missing? Do you know, that hadn't crossed my mind. I can certainly add it, he was PM from being appointed in the Lords to the by-election wasn't he, so yeah, that needs adding.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 13:28:18 GMT
Ballot papers faced by Leaders of the Opposition. Based on the original post by psephosThe position was made statutory in 1937. There is room for ambiguity prior to this, particularly in 1922 1900 | Stirling Burghs | Liberal Liberal Unionist | 1906 | Manchester Eastα | Liberal Conservative | 1910 (Jan) | City of London | Conservative x 2 Liberal x 1 | 1910 (Dec) | City of London | Conservative x 2 (unopposed) | 1918 | Fife Easternβ | Conservative, Liberal Independent Progressive | 1922 (1922)γ | Paisley (Manchester Platting) | Liberal, Labour Co-op (Labour, Conservative, Liberal) | 1923 | Aberavon | Labour, Conservative | 1924 | Bewdley | Conservative (unopposed) | 1929 | Seahamδ | Labour, Conservative Liberal, Communist | 1931 | Burnleyε | National, Labour, Communist | 1935 | Limehouse | Labour, Conservative | 1945 | Limehouse | Labour, Conservative | 1950 | Woodford | Conservative, Labour Liberal, Communist | 1951 | Woodford | Conservative, Labour Communist, Independent | 1955 | Walthamstow West | Labour, Conservative | 1959 | Leeds South | Labour, Conservative, Liberal | 1964 | Huytonζ | Labour, Conservative, Independent
| 1966 | Bexley | Conservative, Labour, Liberal | 1970 | Bexley | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Independent x 2 | 1974 (Feb) | Huyton | Labour, Conservative, Liberal Campaign for a More Prosperous Britain | 1974 (Oct) | Sidcup | Conservative, Labour Independent x 2 | 1979 | Finchleyη | Conservative, Labour, Liberal National Front, Independent | 1983 | Blaenau Gwent | Labour, Liberal, Conservative, Plaid Cymru | 1987 | Islwyn | Labour, Conservative, SDP, Plaid Cymru | 1992 | Islwyn | Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru/Green Joint Ticket, OMRLP | 1997 | Sedgefield | Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat Referendum, Socialist Labour | 2001 | Richmond (Yorks) | Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat OMRLP | 2005 | Folkestone and Hythe | Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Labour UKIP, OMRLP, Senior Citizens, Peace, Independent | 2010 | Witney | Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Labour Green, UKIP, OMRLP, Wessex Regonalist Independents x 3 | 2015 | Doncaster North | Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat English Democrat OMRLP, TUSC, UKIP, Green | 2017 | Islington North | Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat Green, UKIP, OMRLP, SPGB Communist League, Independent x 2 | 2019 | Islington North | Labour, Liberal Democrat, Conservative, Green, Brexit, OMRLP |
Notes α: Balfour led Conservative Party into 1906 election; he was defeated in Manchester East β: Asquith ("I do not see [my] role in any sense to be the leader of what is called an opposition") defeated in Fife Eastern γ: Labour were the largest opposition party in 1922, but appear not to have pushed their claim to be the Opposition. Leadership fell on HH Asquith of the 'independent' (ie non coalition) Liberal Party δ: Leader of the Opposition was outgoing member for Aberavon ε: Arthur Henderson defeated in Burnley ζ: Independent candidate representative of Committee to Defeat Revisionism for Communist Unity η: Leader of the Opposition was outgoing member for Ebbw Vale
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on May 24, 2020 15:44:39 GMT
Thinking about 1979...the disappointing Conservative performance in Greater Manchester would not have been a disappointment on the 1983 boundaries:- Middleton & Prestwich Lab hold - Bury South Con gain Bolton East Lab hold - Bolton NE Con gain Bury & Radcliffe Lab hold - Bury North Con gain Heywood and Royton -> now Heywood and Middleton, a Con gain with an even bigger majority than both Burys? The bits other than Heywood may have also been the more Conservative parts of Oldham/Rochdale too.
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Post by hullenedge on May 26, 2020 10:56:50 GMT
Labour's 'poshest' seat?
From the 1966/1971 Census % Professional/Managerial
1964 - Epping 1966 - Hampstead 1970 - Ealing North 1970 (notional) - Paddington 1974 Feb - Paddington 1974 Oct - Welwyn Hatfield 1979 - Holborn & St Pancras South
The flip side for the Tories' least 'poshest' seat:-
1964 - Smethwick 1966 to 1970 (plus notional) - Plymouth Devonport 1974 Feb to 1979 - Gosport
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 11:34:26 GMT
It could be argued that Dulwich was a posher seat than Holborn & St Pancras South.
Glasgow, Cathcart would still have a lot of professional/managerial types living there in 1979.
Ormskirk also springs to mind, having a lot of Liverpool commuters.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 26, 2020 12:16:23 GMT
Castle Milk and Kirkby tended not to have too many professional/managerial types..
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 12:23:31 GMT
Castle Milk and Kirkby tended not to have too many professional/managerial types.. Tended? What has changed? Obviously a posh seat with a Labour MP in that era tended to be very polarised, like Dulwich and Hampstead were. Ormskirk also had Formby which would surely have been more uniformly prosperous than the rich areas of the London seats on the list.
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