The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 29, 2012 23:32:01 GMT
Labour gain in Sevenoaks, apparently  (easy Tory hold over UKIP in the other seat) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2012 23:36:26 GMT
Labour gain in Sevenoaks, apparently (easy Tory hold over UKIP in the other seat)  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2012 23:44:30 GMT
we won in sevenoaks, jeez
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 29, 2012 23:46:37 GMT
we won in sevenoaks, jeez Congratulations to Dibs on a rather spectacular prediction in Sevenoaks! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 30, 2012 1:50:27 GMT
we won in sevenoaks, jeez ie. Sevenoaks district (which also includes eg. Swanley so nothing spectacular per se about Labour winning a ward in the district, any more than that the Tories can win some wards in Barnsley or Rotherham). The ward in question is towards Swanley and the Crays over the border in Bromley and shares some of the charactersitics. More important however is that the Labour candidate was the widow of the deceased councillor who had previously won with share of upwards of 80% (as a LD) |
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Post by anthony on Mar 30, 2012 6:49:43 GMT
@britainvotes Southfields Tory majority down to somewhere around 12%. Tory vote has held up; Lib Dem vote has collapsed to Lab; down to 5%. 6% actually Choudry ABID (Independent) 38 - 1% Kim CADDY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1841 - 49% Josh KAILE (The Labour Party Candidate) 1511 - 40% Bruce MACKENZIE (Green Party) 100 >3% Strachan MCDONALD (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 40 - 1% John MUNRO (Liberal Democrat) 220 - 6% Turnout 30.5% Around 15 people turned up with the independent - he did put out two leaflets (although I saw neither). |
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Post by fwt on Mar 30, 2012 6:55:47 GMT
For the benefit of completeness, but massively overshadowed by events in Bradford:
Sevenoaks DC, Cowden and Hever
Con 296 (78.5%)
UKIP: 81 (21.5%)
Conservative hold
Sevenoaks DC, Crokenhill and Well Hill
Lab: 304 (58.3%)
Con: 177 (34.0%)
UKIP: 40 (7.7%)
Labour gain
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 30, 2012 8:15:35 GMT
As Pete has pointed out the Labour result in Sevenoaks isn't that surprising (and Dibs wasn't the only one to predict it). In many ways the Wandworth result is a better one for Labour.
On the other hand they seem to have come very close to losing in High Peak.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on Mar 30, 2012 8:58:20 GMT
From the Council website:
Sally Tarry, the Conservative Party candidate, received 578 votes to 510 for the Lincolnshire Independent Party candidate Liz Peto. The turnout was 25.32%.
Overall, the Tory vote seems resilient. Even in Southfields (where Labour undoubtedly performed well), they are hardly down. In High Peak (where Labour got a larger share of the vote than in 2003) there has been a Lab to Con swing compared to last year. In June 2011-March 2012 period, in how many contests are there been a Lab to Con or a Lab to LD swing compared to May 2011? Can Labour do worse than in 2011 at this year locals?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 30, 2012 9:02:59 GMT
I've been working on the assumption until recently at least, that Labour would do no better than last year and in some areas do less well ( I put it as less well rather than 'worse' because they did do well in some areas in the Mets and may not be able to match this again in say Birmingham). Recent national polls however would indicate they might expect to do a bit better but you are right that there is not much reflection of this in local byelections
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 30, 2012 9:53:04 GMT
Well, recent results at Braintree and Stafford - for instance - have indicated Labour *can* do better than last year. The result in Buxton was close in 2011, too. It is only a small swing to the Tories since then - explainable perhaps by the fact a Labour loss would have effectively (as opposed to formally) made the council "hung", so the Tories campaigned hard (as in Herts last week) But still no Tory by-election gain from Labour since September 2010!  |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Mar 30, 2012 10:57:52 GMT
it was just an impression. So I asked for hard numbers (being lazy today).
Maybe Galloway is simply making me see everything doom and gloom for Labour. I use to be pessimistic with the centre-left prospects in all Europe: just in case not be left disappointed (and usually it is quite right)
I forgot Stafford. A really good result there. Braintree was an underperformance in 2011, so the good 2012 result brings things in line again. So we come to Pete's point: the 2011 picture was actually mixed for Labour but in some areas (like the mets) they have done really well, so it's difficult to improve further (for ex against the LD who did terribly in some cities last year)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2012 12:56:44 GMT
Truro CC, Boscawen:
Cons 479
LD 273
LAB 246.
Oh dear.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 30, 2012 13:01:30 GMT
Compared with what previously??
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on Mar 30, 2012 13:29:53 GMT
July 2011
Con 469
LD 322
Lab 246
Mebyon Kernow 144
Are the boundaries similar to the country division?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2012 13:35:25 GMT
Truro CC, Boscawen: Cons 479 LD 273 LAB 246. Oh dear. Oh good! I'm glad that all 246 Labour voters in this ward made it to the polling station! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 30, 2012 14:08:24 GMT
we won in sevenoaks, jeez ie. Sevenoaks district (which also includes eg. Swanley so nothing spectacular per se about Labour winning a ward in the district, any more than that the Tories can win some wards in Barnsley or Rotherham). The ward in question is towards Swanley and the Crays over the border in Bromley and shares some of the charactersitics. More important however is that the Labour candidate was the widow of the deceased councillor who had previously won with share of upwards of 80% (as a LD) All fair comment, but as you know Labour strength in places like Swanley was seriously eroded in the later Blair/Brown years - and even last year our results there were mediocre (especially at TC level) As for the widow thing, sometimes the "sympathy vote" appeal works better than at others. It is still a good Labour result |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 30, 2012 14:23:39 GMT
Don't deny its a good result and one place the widow sympathy vote didn't work was in Stafford recently. I was really calling ian out on the rather lazy assumption that Sevenoaks = uniformly Tory stronghold and clearly this particular ward was never that
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Post by marksenior on Mar 30, 2012 14:54:17 GMT
July 2011 Con 469 LD 322 Lab 246 Mebyon Kernow 144 Are the boundaries similar to the country division? No . Andrea they are different but I don't know by how much |
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Rural Radical
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Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Post by Rural Radical on Mar 31, 2012 20:50:52 GMT
Don't deny its a good result and one place the widow sympathy vote didn't work was in Stafford recently. I was really calling ian out on the rather lazy assumption that Sevenoaks = uniformly Tory stronghold and clearly this particular ward was never that The Stafford ward borders the ward I live in. The widow had a bit of a "sour grapes" winge in the local paper after the result, of course though she was the defeated Conservative candidate. |
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