Kansas

[stb12]

6 electoral college votes

[stb12]

Not going to swing this state but former GOP senator for Kansas Nancy Kassebaum has endorsed Harris

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4902704-former-kansas-gop-senator-nancy-kassebaum-endorses-kamala-harris/

[sanders]

Sept 27, 2024 9:53:28 GMT stb12 said:

Not going to swing this state but former GOP senator for Kansas Nancy Kassebaum has endorsed Harris

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4902704-former-kansas-gop-senator-nancy-kassebaum-endorses-kamala-harris/

Kansas will probably swing left again. Johnson County is trending left quickly. It’s becoming a very suburban state. KS-03 wasn’t even close in 2022.

[johng]

Was talking to a friend who thinks Kansas will vote to the left of Florida this year. Hard to believe it, but if you think Florida is going to be high single digits (maybe even double digits to Trump), then I suppose it could happen.

[aargauer]

I think he's getting ahead of himself, by quite some distance.

[sanders]

Oct 31, 2024 20:02:35 GMT johng said:

Was talking to a friend who thinks Kansas will vote to the left of Florida this year. Hard to believe it, but if you think Florida is going to be high single digits (maybe even double digits to Trump), then I suppose it could happen.

Well Kansas voted left of Missouri. For the first time since 1916. I could see it vote left of South Carolina. The reason being? Kansas City and Overland Park drift left. Maybe Harris wins Wichita this year. 

[riccimarsh]

Oct 31, 2024 20:52:03 GMT aargauer said:

I think he's getting ahead of himself, by quite some distance.

All will be revealed soon. I wouldn’t be surprised. But also, I would be pretty surprised.

[johng]

Oct 31, 2024 20:52:03 GMT aargauer said:

I think he's getting ahead of himself, by quite some distance.

I would be surprised, but I am not sure it will be by quite some distance.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

I'm not predicting an outcome on the U.S. election overall, but if any state delivers an upset, I reckon Kansas will be it.

[jamesdoyle]

Nov 5, 2024 12:15:28 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

I'm not predicting an outcome on the U.S. election overall, but if any state delivers an upset, I reckon Kansas will be it.

Popped in wondering why Kansas of all places had risen to the top, and - wow. That's quite a call. I've been paying no attention to KS, what lies behind your thoughts here?

[stb12]

Not a chance, there are a few signs that it's gradually trending more Democrat but if Harris was to actually carry it then all sorts of 'safe' states will be falling

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Nov 5, 2024 12:24:54 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Nov 5, 2024 12:15:28 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

I'm not predicting an outcome on the U.S. election overall, but if any state delivers an upset, I reckon Kansas will be it.

Popped in wondering why Kansas of all places had risen to the top, and - wow. That's quite a call. I've been paying no attention to KS, what lies behind your thoughts here?

Just that it has been relatively neglected in terms of campaigning and polling and is closer than people give it credit for. Rather like Indiana in 2008. Add in that I honestly wouldn't want to estimate national or regional swings on this election, and this one would be my "suprised but not surprised" one if it had an outlier result.

[stb12]

Nov 5, 2024 14:12:44 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

Nov 5, 2024 12:24:54 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Popped in wondering why Kansas of all places had risen to the top, and - wow. That's quite a call. I've been paying no attention to KS, what lies behind your thoughts here?

Just that it has been relatively neglected in terms of campaigning and polling and is closer than people give it credit for. Rather like Indiana in 2008. Add in that I honestly wouldn't want to estimate national or regional swings on this election, and this one would be my "suprised but not surprised" one if it had an outlier result.

You don’t get much more of a long term GOP stronghold than Kansas though, it’s not elected a non-Republican Senator or voted for a Democrat presidential nominee since the 1930s (with the exception of LBJ’s 1964 blowout)

Indiana in 2008 was a surprise but this would be seismic

[Forfarshire Conservative]

It did come reasonably close in 92 though when Perot was on the ballot.

[batman]

I suspect I have a good chance of living to see Kansas elect a Democratic President, but I don't think for one moment it'll be today.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 5, 2024 15:06:01 GMT batman said:

I suspect I have a good chance of living to see Kansas elect a Democratic President, but I don't think for one moment it'll be today.

You already have

[johnloony]

When I become Dictator of the World, Kansas will be pronounced like the last two syllables of “Arkansas”.

[batman]

Nov 5, 2024 15:24:33 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Nov 5, 2024 15:06:01 GMT batman said:

I suspect I have a good chance of living to see Kansas elect a Democratic President, but I don't think for one moment it'll be today.

You already have

that is true, but I have no recollection of it. Very well, I shall rephrase - "I have a good chance of living to see Kansas elect a Democratic President for the first time since 1964"

[sanders]

Kansas is trending Democratic because of the Kansas City area, and the likes of Overland Park in Johnson County. KS-03 is pretty solidly Democratic now. Texas will fall before Kansas does, however.

[aargauer]

Nov 5, 2024 14:12:44 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

Nov 5, 2024 12:24:54 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Popped in wondering why Kansas of all places had risen to the top, and - wow. That's quite a call. I've been paying no attention to KS, what lies behind your thoughts here?

Just that it has been relatively neglected in terms of campaigning and polling and is closer than people give it credit for. Rather like Indiana in 2008. Add in that I honestly wouldn't want to estimate national or regional swings on this election, and this one would be my "suprised but not surprised" one if it had an outlier result.

At the end of the day, yes, it is trending democrat, but its coming from a position way back - voting R by 15 points in a year D won by 4 last time. 

There are plenty of states outwith the 7 that would have been much, much closer were 2020 an even year. 

FL and TX are still the obvious candidates if R were have to have a shocker, and NM, VA, NH, MN, ME if D were.