Election maps (UK wide)

[jamie]

Oct 14, 2024 15:28:32 GMT @sanders said:

Reform winning a Mansfield ward here? They were quite a way behind. Mansfield does have small wards, however.

They won both wards which were included in Ashfield constituency. 

[Deleted]

Oct 14, 2024 16:29:17 GMT jamie said:

Oct 14, 2024 15:28:32 GMT @sanders said:

Reform winning a Mansfield ward here? They were quite a way behind. Mansfield does have small wards, however.

They won both wards which were included in Ashfield constituency. 

That makes sense. Mansfield should've been better for Reform than it was. I thought they might win the seat! 

[The Bishop]

Notts was a striking electoral desert for the LibDems - their weakest county in England?

[Pete Whitehead]

	Lab	Con	Ref	Grn	LD	Ind	Oth
Chesterfield	46.5%	20.6%	19.0%	6.3%	6.2%	0.8%	0.6%
NE Derbyshire	37.8%	34.5%	17.3%	5.9%	4.4%		0.2%
Bolsover	40.8%	24.9%	22.4%	8.6%	3.4%
Amber Valley	37.5%	26.6%	24.6%	6.5%	4.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Erewash	38.9%	27.4%	21.1%	5.8%	6.0%	0.8%	0.1%
South Derbyshire	38.1%	30.4%	19.1%	4.2%	5.4%	2.4%	0.4%
Derbyshire Dales	35.2%	33.2%	15.0%	5.7%	9.4%	0.7%	0.6%
High Peak	45.8%	29.7%	14.1%	6.9%	3.5%
Derbyshire (CC)	40.0%	28.5%	19.2%	6.1%	5.3%	0.6%	0.2%
Derby	40.6%	22.8%	19.8%	6.6%	4.4%	0.4%	5.3%
Derbyshire	40.1%	27.3%	19.3%	6.2%	5.1%	0.6%	1.3%

[YL]

What do you have for Hope Valley?

[Deleted]

Oct 17, 2024 16:38:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

	Lab	Con	Ref	Grn	LD	Ind	Oth
Chesterfield	46.5%	20.6%	19.0%	6.3%	6.2%	0.8%	0.6%
NE Derbyshire	37.8%	34.5%	17.3%	5.9%	4.4%		0.2%
Bolsover	40.8%	24.9%	22.4%	8.6%	3.4%
Amber Valley	37.5%	26.6%	24.6%	6.5%	4.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Erewash	38.9%	27.4%	21.1%	5.8%	6.0%	0.8%	0.1%
South Derbyshire	38.1%	30.4%	19.1%	4.2%	5.4%	2.4%	0.4%
Derbyshire Dales	35.2%	33.2%	15.0%	5.7%	9.4%	0.7%	0.6%
High Peak	45.8%	29.7%	14.1%	6.9%	3.5%
Derbyshire (CC)	40.0%	28.5%	19.2%	6.1%	5.3%	0.6%	0.2%
Derby	40.6%	22.8%	19.8%	6.6%	4.4%	0.4%	5.3%
Derbyshire	40.1%	27.3%	19.3%	6.2%	5.1%	0.6%	1.3%

What's the pink ward in Derby? Guessing a tie, but between whom?

[YL]

Oct 18, 2024 8:31:00 GMT @sanders said:

Oct 17, 2024 16:38:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

	Lab	Con	Ref	Grn	LD	Ind	Oth
Chesterfield	46.5%	20.6%	19.0%	6.3%	6.2%	0.8%	0.6%
NE Derbyshire	37.8%	34.5%	17.3%	5.9%	4.4%		0.2%
Bolsover	40.8%	24.9%	22.4%	8.6%	3.4%
Amber Valley	37.5%	26.6%	24.6%	6.5%	4.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Erewash	38.9%	27.4%	21.1%	5.8%	6.0%	0.8%	0.1%
South Derbyshire	38.1%	30.4%	19.1%	4.2%	5.4%	2.4%	0.4%
Derbyshire Dales	35.2%	33.2%	15.0%	5.7%	9.4%	0.7%	0.6%
High Peak	45.8%	29.7%	14.1%	6.9%	3.5%
Derbyshire (CC)	40.0%	28.5%	19.2%	6.1%	5.3%	0.6%	0.2%
Derby	40.6%	22.8%	19.8%	6.6%	4.4%	0.4%	5.3%
Derbyshire	40.1%	27.3%	19.3%	6.2%	5.1%	0.6%	1.3%

What's the pink ward in Derby? Guessing a tie, but between whom?

Arboretum, and I assume he has it as being carried by Chris Williamson.

[Deleted]

Oct 17, 2024 16:38:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

	Lab	Con	Ref	Grn	LD	Ind	Oth
Chesterfield	46.5%	20.6%	19.0%	6.3%	6.2%	0.8%	0.6%
NE Derbyshire	37.8%	34.5%	17.3%	5.9%	4.4%		0.2%
Bolsover	40.8%	24.9%	22.4%	8.6%	3.4%
Amber Valley	37.5%	26.6%	24.6%	6.5%	4.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Erewash	38.9%	27.4%	21.1%	5.8%	6.0%	0.8%	0.1%
South Derbyshire	38.1%	30.4%	19.1%	4.2%	5.4%	2.4%	0.4%
Derbyshire Dales	35.2%	33.2%	15.0%	5.7%	9.4%	0.7%	0.6%
High Peak	45.8%	29.7%	14.1%	6.9%	3.5%
Derbyshire (CC)	40.0%	28.5%	19.2%	6.1%	5.3%	0.6%	0.2%
Derby	40.6%	22.8%	19.8%	6.6%	4.4%	0.4%	5.3%
Derbyshire	40.1%	27.3%	19.3%	6.2%	5.1%	0.6%	1.3%

North East Derbyshire was a respectable loss for Lee Rowley. Only a three-point win for Labour. 

[nyx]

Oct 18, 2024 8:31:00 GMT @sanders said:

Oct 17, 2024 16:38:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

	Lab	Con	Ref	Grn	LD	Ind	Oth
Chesterfield	46.5%	20.6%	19.0%	6.3%	6.2%	0.8%	0.6%
NE Derbyshire	37.8%	34.5%	17.3%	5.9%	4.4%		0.2%
Bolsover	40.8%	24.9%	22.4%	8.6%	3.4%
Amber Valley	37.5%	26.6%	24.6%	6.5%	4.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Erewash	38.9%	27.4%	21.1%	5.8%	6.0%	0.8%	0.1%
South Derbyshire	38.1%	30.4%	19.1%	4.2%	5.4%	2.4%	0.4%
Derbyshire Dales	35.2%	33.2%	15.0%	5.7%	9.4%	0.7%	0.6%
High Peak	45.8%	29.7%	14.1%	6.9%	3.5%
Derbyshire (CC)	40.0%	28.5%	19.2%	6.1%	5.3%	0.6%	0.2%
Derby	40.6%	22.8%	19.8%	6.6%	4.4%	0.4%	5.3%
Derbyshire	40.1%	27.3%	19.3%	6.2%	5.1%	0.6%	1.3%

What's the pink ward in Derby? Guessing a tie, but between whom?

I would assume Workers Party

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 18, 2024 8:28:30 GMT YL said:

What do you have for Hope Valley?

Neck and neck basically - Con 35% Lab 34.5%. Greens in third with 13.6%

[Clark]

I've been waiting for Derbyshire and knew the 2 x Heanor wards would definitely be Reform.

[Deleted]

Thanks Pete Whitehead for the excellent work.

[YL]

Oct 18, 2024 16:46:28 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Oct 18, 2024 8:28:30 GMT YL said:

What do you have for Hope Valley?

Neck and neck basically - Con 35% Lab 34.5%. Greens in third with 13.6%

My guess would have been that it voted Labour but that is only based on analogies with the neighbouring Dales wards (which I think it has much more in common with than it does with the rest of its constituency and district) together with a rather impressive Labour poster display in Edale (of course only one part of the ward).

Re the Dales wards, the colour you have for Tideswell is interesting in the context of this post.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 18, 2024 18:40:07 GMT YL said:

Oct 18, 2024 16:46:28 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Neck and neck basically - Con 35% Lab 34.5%. Greens in third with 13.6%

My guess would have been that it voted Labour but that is only based on analogies with the neighbouring Dales wards (which I think it has much more in common with than it does with the rest of its constituency and district) together with a rather impressive Labour poster display in Edale (of course only one part of the ward).

Re the Dales wards, the colour you have for Tideswell is interesting in the context of this post.

It's probable Labour squeezed the Green vote down a bit more in reality than my figures suggest

[Pete Whitehead]

[heslingtonian]



Oct 12, 2024 6:23:13 GMT 1 Pete Whitehead said:

Leciestershire must be the Conservatives' best county all things considered, and not only because of the freakish circumstances in Leicester East. They were closer to holding NW Leices than in any other seat of that type and had Bridgen been the Conservative candidate its likely they'd have held on.

Also as noted elsewhere, Oadby & Wigston must have shown the biggest gulf anywhere at this election between Lib Dem local strength and general election performance.

Agree with this. I think the Conservatives under Sunak will have been helped by wealthier Hindu voters moving out of Leicester City itself and into the more rural seats. Similar to how seats like South West Hertfordshire and Hertsmere held up relatively well. 

[John Chanin]

Oct 19, 2024 8:20:13 GMT heslingtonian said:

Pete Whitehead said:Leicestershire must be the Conservatives' best county all things considered, and not only because of the freakish circumstances in Leicester East. They were closer to holding NW Leices than in any other seat of that type and had Bridgen been the Conservative candidate its likely they'd have held on.Also as noted elsewhere, Oadby & Wigston must have shown the biggest gulf anywhere at this election between Lib Dem local strength and general election performance.

Agree with this. I think the Conservatives under Sunak will have been helped by wealthier Hindu voters moving out of Leicester City itself and into the more rural seats. Similar to how seats like South West Hertfordshire and Hertsmere held up relatively well. 

The Conservative vote also held up well in Worcestershire.  There is certainly an asian presence in many of the commuter villages around Leicester, but they are not all Hindus.  Focaldata have just produced an analysis showing that voting patterns among minority communities generally are much more traditionally class based, than is now the pattern among the white community, where the class differential has virtually disappeared.

The Liberal Democrats did not target Harborough -they targeted Hinckley, very unsuccessfully.  It was more likely that Labour would win Harborough, but in line with their general strategy they didn't target it either.  It is scarcely unusual that Liberal Democrat strongholds at local level do not translate into General Election votes, something we are starting to see with the Greens too.

[Deleted]

Oct 19, 2024 7:37:40 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Reform's weakest area in Bolsover - Barlborough. That doesn't surprise me at all. It's a fairly middle class area. Used to elect the solitary Tories. Now they win in other areas. The Dixons lost their seats recently. 2023 elections were interesting in Bolsover. You saw a realignment of sorts. Other parts have Tory councillors though. 

[YL]

Here, thanks of course to bjornhattan, are the Hindu proportions (and England & Wales ranks) for each constituency at least partly in Leicestershire:

Leicester East 37.6% (1)
Leicester South 8.3% (16)
Leicester West 7.4% (21)
Mid Leicestershire 6.9% (23)
Harborough, Oadby & Wigston 6.7% (26)
Melton & Syston 5.1% (36)
Loughborough 4.0% (49)
Rutland & Stamford 1.5% (159)
South Leicestershire 1.1% (200)
Hinckley & Bosworth 0.8% (254)
North West Leicestershire 0.5% (332)

The Tories held Mid Leics by 4.6 percentage points and HO&W by 4.7. So those two could just about have been down to an unusually strong performance among Hindu voters but it would have had to have been dramatic. The other Tory seats, except of course Leicester East, were won by too much for it to have been a factor.

It would be quite interesting to see whether demographic modelling, with or without taking religion into account, suggests these Leicester suburban seats were Labour underperformances/Conservative overperformances.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 15, 2024 10:44:13 GMT The Bishop said:

Notts was a striking electoral desert for the LibDems - their weakest county in England?

Staffordshire says 'hold my beer!'

	Lab	Con	Ref	Grn	LD	Ind	Oth
Tamworth	37.2%	29.4%	26.2%	3.3%	2.8%	0.7%	0.4%
Lichfield	35.1%	33.1%	20.5%	3.8%	6.8%	0.8%	0.1%
East Staffordshire	34.2%	32.5%	20.7%	4.5%	4.1%	0.1%	3.9%
Cannock Chase	36.5%	29.2%	26.9%	5.0%	2.4%
South Staffordshire	28.3%	44.8%	10.7%	5.2%	6.2%	0.9%	3.9%
Stafford	38.2%	34.5%	14.2%	5.8%	4.7%	0.2%	2.4%
Newcastle under Lyme	40.3%	29.0%	21.5%	4.4%	4.4%	0.3%	0.1%
Staffordshire Moorlands	32.6%	35.2%	23.1%	5.3%	3.5%	0.2%
Staffordshire (CC)	35.3%	33.7%	19.8%	4.7%	4.5%	0.4%	1.5%
Stoke on Trent	39.9%	23.8%	24.0%	3.7%	2.8%	5.7%
Staffordshire	36.1%	32.0%	20.6%	4.5%	4.2%	1.4%	1.2%