Election maps (UK wide)

[Tony Otim]

Oct 1, 2024 4:24:31 GMT @sanders said:

The almost unbroken Reform is aesthetic. The 2021 locals will be interesting. Still, Reform will need many candidates. They could win Boston council eventually. What local authrotieis did Reform carry? I'm asking about the whole UK. Ashfield, Boston, Great Yarmouth, and Tendring?

Having candidates will be a key. Will be interesting to see how many they manage come May, but so far by-election candidates in England are still quite few. There's a by-election in Tice's constituency coming up in a few weeks, but no Reform candidate. However, there does seem to be somebody in the Scottish party who is getting them organised and coverage is much better up here...

[East Anglian Lefty]

Sept 28, 2024 16:55:04 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

	Lab	Con	Ref	Grn	LD	Ind	Oth
Corby	52.7%	20.5%	16.2%	5.5%	4.1%	1.0%
East Northamptonshire	33.7%	35.3%	19.5%	6.4%	4.3%	0.5%	0.3%
Wellingborough	37.6%	29.2%	21.8%	5.3%	5.2%	0.3%	0.5%
Kettering	35.6%	28.3%	17.1%	14.0%	2.6%	2.1%	0.3%
North Northamptonshire	38.6%	29.1%	18.7%	8.3%	4.0%	1.0%	0.3%
Northampton	40.9%	25.7%	17.8%	5.8%	6.4%	1.2%	2.2%
Daventry	28.3%	33.7%	19.6%	5.4%	13.0%
South Northamptonshire	28.6%	35.5%	16.8%	5.7%	9.7%	3.2%	0.4%
West Northamptonshire	34.4%	30.4%	17.9%	5.7%	8.9%	1.5%	1.2%
Northamptonshire	36.3%	29.8%	18.3%	6.9%	6.6%	1.3%	0.8%

Could I trouble you for the projected results for Riverside Park and Duston West & St Crispins? Surprised you have Labour carrying the former (which is an absolute Tory fortress) and not the latter (which has been swingy in the past.) Judging from the party support maps, it looks like that's because you've got the Tories bleeding more to Reform in the former than the latter (where again I'd ordinarily have assumed the opposite) but it'd be interesting to see the precise figures.

[stb12]

Oct 1, 2024 6:25:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 1, 2024 4:24:31 GMT @sanders said:

The almost unbroken Reform is aesthetic. The 2021 locals will be interesting. Still, Reform will need many candidates. They could win Boston council eventually. What local authrotieis did Reform carry? I'm asking about the whole UK. Ashfield, Boston, Great Yarmouth, and Tendring?

Having candidates will be a key. Will be interesting to see how many they manage come May, but so far by-election candidates in England are still quite few. There's a by-election in Tice's constituency coming up in a few weeks, but no Reform candidate. However, there does seem to be somebody in the Scottish party who is getting them organised and coverage is much better up here...

You’d imagine that’s with the Scottish Parliament elections and the list system proving a real opening. Maybe be similar for Wales?

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 1, 2024 15:32:49 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Sept 28, 2024 16:55:04 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

	Lab	Con	Ref	Grn	LD	Ind	Oth
Corby	52.7%	20.5%	16.2%	5.5%	4.1%	1.0%
East Northamptonshire	33.7%	35.3%	19.5%	6.4%	4.3%	0.5%	0.3%
Wellingborough	37.6%	29.2%	21.8%	5.3%	5.2%	0.3%	0.5%
Kettering	35.6%	28.3%	17.1%	14.0%	2.6%	2.1%	0.3%
North Northamptonshire	38.6%	29.1%	18.7%	8.3%	4.0%	1.0%	0.3%
Northampton	40.9%	25.7%	17.8%	5.8%	6.4%	1.2%	2.2%
Daventry	28.3%	33.7%	19.6%	5.4%	13.0%
South Northamptonshire	28.6%	35.5%	16.8%	5.7%	9.7%	3.2%	0.4%
West Northamptonshire	34.4%	30.4%	17.9%	5.7%	8.9%	1.5%	1.2%
Northamptonshire	36.3%	29.8%	18.3%	6.9%	6.6%	1.3%	0.8%

Could I trouble you for the projected results for Riverside Park and Duston West & St Crispins? Surprised you have Labour carrying the former (which is an absolute Tory fortress) and not the latter (which has been swingy in the past.) Judging from the party support maps, it looks like that's because you've got the Tories bleeding more to Reform in the former than the latter (where again I'd ordinarily have assumed the opposite) but it'd be interesting to see the precise figures.

Riverside Park: Con 32.4% Lab 35.2% Ref 20.8% LD 6.4% Grn 4.4%
Duston West etc: Con 35.9% Lab 34.4% Ref 15.6% Grn 7.0% LD 6.2%

I never use one set of local elections for the base data and while in 2023 Labour were slightly stronger in Duston West (Con 54.5% Lab 31.2%) than Riverside Park (54.2% / 29.7%) in the county council elections in 2017 the reverse was the case and the UKIP vote was higher in RP(9.1%) than DW&SC (7%) but more significantly in 2013 there was a substantial UKIP vote in the latter while they didnt stand in the former.
I can't say whether I think it is right as I don't know those areas ( I really only know the central areas of the town and the southern approaches - Castle, Delapre, the old St James ward etc) and this is a problem when we get to areas I don't know so well as I only have the data to go on and can't be sure if a result feels right or wrong from one random Northampton suburb to the next in the way I would be able to in eg. Luton

[The Bishop]

Oct 1, 2024 6:25:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 1, 2024 4:24:31 GMT @sanders said:

The almost unbroken Reform is aesthetic. The 2021 locals will be interesting. Still, Reform will need many candidates. They could win Boston council eventually. What local authrotieis did Reform carry? I'm asking about the whole UK. Ashfield, Boston, Great Yarmouth, and Tendring?

Having candidates will be a key. Will be interesting to see how many they manage come May, but so far by-election candidates in England are still quite few. There's a by-election in Tice's constituency coming up in a few weeks, but no Reform candidate. However, there does seem to be somebody in the Scottish party who is getting them organised and coverage is much better up here...

Prior to the last election being called, Reform candidates were thin on the ground in both local by-elections and (a few places excepted) the regular May elections - and this made several sceptical over whether they would either get close to a full slate in a GE, or indeed achieve much even if they did. In retrospect, it is clear they were targeting almost everything into July 4th even at the cost of maybe somewhat neglecting things elsewhere - and it was tbf a strategy that didn't work out too badly for them.

I wonder if something similar is happening now, with next May being prioritised. And it is mostly county councils at stake with bigger divisions and fewer seats in total than other local election cycles, which should make it easier to achieve substantial coverage overall.

[Pete Whitehead]

[Deleted]

Oct 5, 2024 7:08:08 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Excellent work as ever here Pete Whitehead. Will Reform contest Lincs next May? 

[batman]

of course they will, even if not every single seat.

[carolus]

Oct 5, 2024 16:02:56 GMT batman said:

of course they will, even if not every single seat.

I wonder whether @sanders may have meant the Lincolnshire mayorality which will be having its first election next May. Of course I should think Reform almost certainly will have a candidate.

Ben Bradley appears to be feeling the reduction in the number of his jobs, and is reportedly going for the Conservative nomination. www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news/local-news/ben-bradley-considers-trying-again-9598180

[Deleted]

Oct 5, 2024 19:30:26 GMT carolus said:

Oct 5, 2024 16:02:56 GMT batman said:

of course they will, even if not every single seat.

I wonder whether @sanders may have meant the Lincolnshire mayorality which will be having its first election next May. Of course I should think Reform almost certainly will have a candidate.

Ben Bradley appears to be feeling the reduction in the number of his jobs, and is reportedly going for the Conservative nomination. www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news/local-news/ben-bradley-considers-trying-again-9598180

Does he want to lose again? Though Lincs is a better bet. Reform could win it, of course. It'd be a coup if so. Lincs is their best area though 

[batman]

The Conservatives really ought to be able to win the Lincolnshire mayoralty. If they can’t win in Lincs as a whole they might as well pack up and go home

[The Bishop]

Going from Three Jobs Ben to No Jobs Ben in just a year would be very satisfying, ngl.

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	Lab	Ref	LD	Grn	Ind	Oth
Harborough	38.9%	26.4%	16.3%	11.5%	6.5%		0.3%
Oadby & Wigston	35.5%	34.1%	11.4%	10.6%	8.0%		0.4%
Blaby	33.7%	28.6%	19.2%	12.3%	6.2%
Hinckley & Bosworth	35.7%	19.6%	18.7%	21.7%	3.9%	0.4%
NW Leicestershire	33.0%	34.2%	20.1%	3.7%	5.6%	3.3%
Charnwood	34.8%	34.3%	17.3%	5.8%	7.2%	0.3%	0.3%
Melton	35.9%	27.6%	21.1%	5.0%	7.9%	1.1%	1.4%
Leicestershire (CC)	35.3%	29.5%	17.8%	10.1%	6.3%	0.7%	0.3%
Leicester	21.3%	32.0%	8.7%	8.0%	8.1%	17.7%	4.1%
Leicestershire	31.6%	30.2%	15.4%	9.6%	6.8%	5.2%	1.3%
Rutland	40.9%	22.8%	13.6%	14.9%	6.9%	0.0%	0.9%

[Pete Whitehead]

[Deleted]

Oct 12, 2024 5:13:49 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

	Con	Lab	Ref	LD	Grn	Ind	Oth
Harborough	38.9%	26.4%	16.3%	11.5%	6.5%		0.3%
Oadby & Wigston	35.5%	34.1%	11.4%	10.6%	8.0%		0.4%
Blaby	33.7%	28.6%	19.2%	12.3%	6.2%
Hinckley & Bosworth	35.7%	19.6%	18.7%	21.7%	3.9%	0.4%
NW Leicestershire	33.0%	34.2%	20.1%	3.7%	5.6%	3.3%
Charnwood	34.8%	34.3%	17.3%	5.8%	7.2%	0.3%	0.3%
Melton	35.9%	27.6%	21.1%	5.0%	7.9%	1.1%	1.4%
Leicestershire (CC)	35.3%	29.5%	17.8%	10.1%	6.3%	0.7%	0.3%
Leicester	21.3%	32.0%	8.7%	8.0%	8.1%	17.7%	4.1%
Leicestershire	31.6%	30.2%	15.4%	9.6%	6.8%	5.2%	1.3%
Rutland	40.9%	22.8%	13.6%	14.9%	6.9%	0.0%	0.9%

The Leicester map is aesthetically satisfying. Here's the 2023 locals for comparison. LAB 40.4% CON 34.8% OTH 24.8%. 

[Pete Whitehead]

Leciestershire must be the Conservatives' best county all things considered, and not only because of the freakish circumstances in Leicester East. They were closer to holding NW Leices than in any other seat of that type and had Bridgen been the Conservative candidate its likely they'd have held on.
Also as noted elsewhere, Oadby & Wigston must have shown the biggest gulf anywhere at this election between Lib Dem local strength and general election performance.

[Deleted]

Oct 12, 2024 5:23:13 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Leciestershire must be the Conservatives' best county all things considered, and not only because of the freakish circumstances in Leicester East. They were closer to holding NW Leices than in any other seat of that type and had Bridgen been the Conservative candidate its likely they'd have held on.
Also as noted elsewhere, Oadby & Wigston must have shown the biggest gulf anywhere at this election between Lib Dem local strength and general election performance.

Yes although similar to PCC election. I agree about Bridgen holding on. NW Leics should never have fallen. Compare that to 1992 (ultra-marginal seat). Tories are well-placed to reclaim it. Yes, contrast O&W to e.g. Eastleigh. Lib Dem strength disappears in GEs. 

[Pete Whitehead]

	Lab	Con	Ref	Grn	LD	Ind	Oth
Nottingham	50.9%	13.7%	14.7%	10.0%	5.0%	1.5%	4.1%
Broxtowe	39.5%	25.1%	17.5%	7.9%	7.4%	1.9%	0.7%
Rushcliffe	42.4%	32.1%	11.6%	6.9%	5.5%	1.4%	0.1%
Gedling	45.6%	25.2%	17.3%	6.1%	5.0%	0.7%	0.0%
Newark & Sherwood	35.9%	34.5%	17.8%	4.5%	4.8%	2.1%	0.3%
Bassetlaw	39.6%	30.4%	20.9%	4.4%	4.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Mansfield	38.9%	29.8%	23.7%	3.2%	1.9%	1.2%	1.3%
Ashfield	31.5%	12.4%	38.3%	3.4%	2.5%	11.9%	0.0%
Nottinghamshire (CC)	39.2%	27.2%	20.6%	5.3%	4.6%	2.8%	0.3%
Nottinghamshire	41.5%	24.5%	19.4%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	1.1%

[Pete Whitehead]

[Deleted]

Oct 14, 2024 13:30:31 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

	Lab	Con	Ref	Grn	LD	Ind	Oth
Nottingham	50.9%	13.7%	14.7%	10.0%	5.0%	1.5%	4.1%
Broxtowe	39.5%	25.1%	17.5%	7.9%	7.4%	1.9%	0.7%
Rushcliffe	42.4%	32.1%	11.6%	6.9%	5.5%	1.4%	0.1%
Gedling	45.6%	25.2%	17.3%	6.1%	5.0%	0.7%	0.0%
Newark & Sherwood	35.9%	34.5%	17.8%	4.5%	4.8%	2.1%	0.3%
Bassetlaw	39.6%	30.4%	20.9%	4.4%	4.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Mansfield	38.9%	29.8%	23.7%	3.2%	1.9%	1.2%	1.3%
Ashfield	31.5%	12.4%	38.3%	3.4%	2.5%	11.9%	0.0%
Nottinghamshire (CC)	39.2%	27.2%	20.6%	5.3%	4.6%	2.8%	0.3%
Nottinghamshire	41.5%	24.5%	19.4%	6.3%	4.7%	2.5%	1.1%

Reform winning a Mansfield ward here? They were quite a way behind. Mansfield does have small wards, however.