Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,711
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Post by Tony Otim on May 6, 2024 9:33:19 GMT
BIRMINGHAM MBC; Kingstanding (Ind elected as Con resigned)
Candidates:
HAYWARD, Lucy (Liberal Democrat)
HIGGINS, Pete (Workers Party)
LEE, Patrick Christopher (Green)
O’SULLIVAN, Kris (TUSC)
RASHEED, Naz (Labour)
WELCH, Clifton Frederick (Conservative)
2022: Lab 1350, 1221; Con 1286, 1274; LD 142; Grn 125, 99; TUSC 50; We Matter 19
2018: Con 1745, 1577; Lab 1465, 1459; LD 97, 89
Naz Rasheed was the unsuccessful Labour candidate here last time, whilst Kris O’Sullivan stood for TUSC in Castle Vale and Clifton Welch for the Conservatives in Pype Hayes.
Current Council: Lab 65; Con 21; LD 12; Grn 2; 1 vacancy
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Post by phil156 on May 29, 2024 8:32:02 GMT
This ward by-election will count on the night
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,582
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 30, 2024 7:29:21 GMT
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,582
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 30, 2024 12:51:05 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 30, 2024 22:42:10 GMT
Not sure what this means as there aren't really any 'early numbers'. Might mean tallies I suppose.
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Post by manchesterman on May 30, 2024 23:15:36 GMT
Not sure what this means as there aren't really any 'early numbers'. Might mean tallies I suppose. "Not found" message, David |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,646
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 30, 2024 23:21:05 GMT
Not sure what this means as there aren't really any 'early numbers'. Might mean tallies I suppose. "Not found" message, David I think the poster was unaware he was breaking the law by sharing info about the count, so took the post down. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 30, 2024 23:22:57 GMT
I don't think that's breaking the law. If the count staff are collecting the counted ballots in a way which makes it clear what the total is, then it's perfectly lawful to report on that.
The only thing that's illegal is to disclose how an individual has voted.
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Post by phil156 on May 30, 2024 23:43:35 GMT
Conservatives have held it according to Andrew
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Post by lackeroftalent on May 31, 2024 0:03:19 GMT
Con 829
Lab 680
LDm 82
Grn 72
Wkr 46
TUSC 20
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Post by manchesterman on May 31, 2024 0:17:46 GMT
wow!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
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Post by The Bishop on May 31, 2024 9:34:01 GMT
Wow?? Its surely not that remarkable a result given the local situation and the fact this ward was split last time. Plus there was a previous byelection in Birmingham all of <checks notes> four weeks ago, and that was actually significantly worse for Labour than this one even though it was a hold.
(looks like most of our predictors forgot about it too)
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Post by iainbhx on May 31, 2024 10:44:37 GMT
Wow?? Its surely not that remarkable a result given the local situation and the fact this ward was split last time. Plus there was a previous byelection in Birmingham all of <checks notes> four weeks ago, and that was actually significantly worse for Labour than this one even though it was a hold. (looks like most of our predictors forgot about it too) If you think those two by-elections are even remotely similar then you really don‘t know Brummagem. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
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Post by The Bishop on May 31, 2024 10:48:41 GMT
Different in many ways, but Labour currently being in the doghouse locally is surely the common factor?
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Post by iainbhx on May 31, 2024 11:11:42 GMT
Different in many ways, but Labour currently being in the doghouse locally is surely the common factor? Not as much as you‘d think. Remember Selly Oak and Bournbrook is very student and local issues really don’t impinge there much. Kingstanding, a lot of people would have really noticed that 10% council tax rise. |
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,067 
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Post by Sg1 on May 31, 2024 15:32:44 GMT
Also, the Conservatives in this area are very capable campaigners and usually do well in low turnout local elections.
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Post by safc26 on May 31, 2024 18:13:42 GMT
Different in many ways, but Labour currently being in the doghouse locally is surely the common factor? Not as much as you‘d think. Remember Selly Oak and Bournbrook is very student and local issues really don’t impinge there much. Kingstanding, a lot of people would have really noticed that 10% council tax rise. What was the cause of the 26% decrease in the Labour vote in Bournbrook & Selly Park then? |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 1, 2024 9:17:35 GMT
And the first statistics for this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections, which I will keep updated.
There have been 3 ordinary by elections since 2nd May 2024, all defended by the Conservatives
The Conservatives have defended 3- Held 2 and lost 1 to Labour ( retention rate 66%)
Labour have gained 1
Overall totals and net changes
Con 2 (-1)
Lab 1 (+1)
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 1, 2024 10:37:17 GMT
Not as much as you‘d think. Remember Selly Oak and Bournbrook is very student and local issues really don’t impinge there much. Kingstanding, a lot of people would have really noticed that 10% council tax rise. What was the cause of the 26% decrease in the Labour vote in Bournbrook & Selly Park then? Gaza - especially at the student vote, Green issues - the Greens made a big play and the usual moaning from the more permanent residents about bloody students. It was interesting in that because there were four decent campaigns going on, the turnout in the by-election was higher than the dismal 19.9% in 2022. Not often that happens. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,751
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Post by iang on Jun 3, 2024 20:17:37 GMT
Five or six campaigns in fact. The Independent and the Workers Party also fought active campaigns (and in a sense helped Labour, because no one could emerge from the pack to establish themselves as the main challenger)
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