Edinburgh South West

[stb12]

Edinburgh South West

[yellowfox]

Joanna Cherry, SNP incumbent since 2015, defends a 11,982 (23%) vote majority here. Her views on transgender rights issues, and increasing flirtations with pro-independence fundamentalism, have made her a thorn in the side of both the Sturgeon and Yousaf leaderships.

This majority is much larger than the 1,000 votes she held on by in 2017, and SNP HQ may now be beginning to wish that she'd lost that contest. Whilst this seat was gained from Labour in 2015, the tories have emerged as the nationalists' primary competitors here, with Labour 5,000 votes further back in 3rd in 2019 and its difficult to see a conservative victory here this year.

The tory candidate is Sue Webber, a Lothian region MSP since 2021 and previously a Pentland Hills councillor since 2017. Labour have selected Scott Arthur, who has been councillor for Colinton and Fairmilehead since 2017.

Labour might have a chance here on a very good day (it was Alistair Darling's seat after all) but at the moment, Cherry must be the favourite to hold on.

[Tony Otim]

Scott Arthur ... a very hard working local councillor in some ways, and the last council elections show he's certainly built up a personal vote in his ward, but the part of his ward where that's probably strongest is the part that's in Ian Murray's seat. Still, he could do ok here...

[ntyuk1707]

This part of the city has been trending to Labour and Scott Arthur is a popular local candidate, having managed to turn the once safely Tory Colinton/Fairmilehead ward to Labour. My instinct is, based on current polling, that he will win here.

[Tony Otim]

Apr 11, 2024 12:23:52 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

This part of the city has been trending to Labour and Scott Arthur is a popular local candidate, having managed to turn the once safely Tory Colinton/Fairmilehead ward to Labour. My instinct is, based on current polling, that he will win here.

Not so sure about this - in 2022 Labour were up in some wards here (Colinton/Fairmilehead, Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart) but down in others (Pentland Hills) - they would still have been 3rd overall in votes and start quite a way back.

There will, of course, have been a further significant swing to Labour since 2022, but also worth noting that only 2/3 of Scott Arthur's ward is in this seat (and as noted above, possibly the strongest parts for him are not). THe other thing that might count against him a little is that he is chair of the Transport and Environment committee and there are certainly some voices that would tend to hold him responsible for some of the more controversial traffic calming measures - which are much more popular in the parts of Edinburgh South where they are than in Edinburgh South West where people want to drive through them (gross simplification, but not without substance).

Of course, Cherry is something of a marmite figure on her side as well, so that may have impact.

I think Labour may well emerge as the main challengers here, but might just come up short (which will deny me a council by-election to be excited about), but I could well be wrong.

[iain]

www.edinburgh.gov.uk/elections-voting/ways-vote/6

8 candidates: Lab, Con, LD, SNP, Reform, Green, Family, Ind

[ntyuk1707]

This is likely to be a Labour gain based on current polling. 

[Deleted]

I've broken the tied poll and voted Labour gain - I think Labour will squeeze the Tories very hard here.

[ntyuk1707]

Calling this for Labour.

[Tony Otim]

Jun 7, 2024 23:57:08 GMT iain said:

www.edinburgh.gov.uk/elections-voting/ways-vote/6

8 candidates: Lab, Con, LD, SNP, Reform, Green, Family, Ind

Scott Arthur (Labour) - cllr for Colinton Fairmilehead (which is mainly in this seat, although the part he lives in/is particularly strong in is in Edinburgh South) since 2017 and maintains a higher profile in his ward than any of the other councillors. 2022 elections certainly showed a personal vote, although not universally liked.

Joanna Cherry (SNP) - the incumbent. Fair to say that she's something of a marmite figure amongst her own party, but has done well here in past elections.

Ian Harper (Reform) - not stood before that I'm aware of. Lives in Livingston, West Lothian.

Dan Heap (Green) - Sitting Councillor for Sighthill Gorgie (Mainly in this seat) since 2022.

Richard Lucas (Scottish Family Party) - founder and leader of the party, - I got his leaflet in Edinburgh South...

Sue Webber (Conservative) - List MSP for Lothian in 2021. Also contested Edinburgh Western in 2021 and was cllr for Pentland Hills (mainly in this seat) 2017-2022 (did not re-stand).

Mark Wilkinson (Independent) - actually the candidate for the Edinburgh People: edinburghpeople.org/ where you can decide their policies if you sign up.

Bruce Wilson (Lib Dem) - contested Edinburgh Central (SP) in 2021 and Edinburgh North & Leith in 2019.

This will be another SNP-Lab contest despite Labour starting in 3rd and the Tories having come close in 2017. I suspect this will easily be the closest of the Edinburgh seats and may be too close to call. I've swung a bit from SNP hold to Lab gain and am possibly swinging back the other way again at the moment.

Tories will probably hold 3rd with Lib Dems 4th, although both will lose votes, with Labour squeezing the Lib Dem vote, I think. Not sure either Green or Reform hold their deposit here, but they will be battling for 5th and 6th probably.

SFP probably get a few hundred, which will be enough to beat the indy/Edinburgh People...

[Sandy]

I want Joanna Cherry to survive for the sole reason her being among a small rump of SNP MPs would be an utterly hilarious embarrassment for the lobotomised LGBT extremists.

[john07]

Apr 11, 2024 13:13:32 GMT Tony Otim said:

Apr 11, 2024 12:23:52 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

This part of the city has been trending to Labour and Scott Arthur is a popular local candidate, having managed to turn the once safely Tory Colinton/Fairmilehead ward to Labour. My instinct is, based on current polling, that he will win here.

Not so sure about this - in 2022 Labour were up in some wards here (Colinton/Fairmilehead, Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart) but down in others (Pentland Hills) - they would still have been 3rd overall in votes and start quite a way back.

There will, of course, have been a further significant swing to Labour since 2022, but also worth noting that only 2/3 of Scott Arthur's ward is in this seat (and as noted above, possibly the strongest parts for him are not).

There is still a considerable conservative vote in this constituency that may be squeezable by Labour.

Because of Cherry's outspoken stance on some 'issues', I can see defections from leftish SNP supporters to the Greens. This faultline was not really an issue in 2019.

[irish observer]

I think Cherry deserves to hold for being a critic of her own party on several issues and is also a legislator. Those kind of people have political cojones are good MPs and Westminster is the place for them. Why replace a National figure with let's face it a lobby-fodder backbencher?

[ntyuk1707]

Jul 1, 2024 11:49:43 GMT irish observer said:

I think Cherry deserves to hold for being a critic of her own party on several issues and is also a legislator. Those kind of people have political cojones are good MPs and Westminster is the place for them. Why replace a National figure with let's face it a lobby-fodder backbencher?

She's been a pretty absent MP and she is certainly a controversial figure for many would-be SNP voters, contrasting Scott Arthur who is quite well respected.

[right]

Jul 1, 2024 11:49:43 GMT irish observer said:

I think Cherry deserves to hold for being a critic of her own party on several issues and is also a legislator. Those kind of people have political cojones are good MPs and Westminster is the place for them. Why replace a National figure with let's face it a lobby-fodder backbencher?

She certainly seems to be trading on her independent streak, had to check if she was SNP at all - like a lot of the Tory leaflets

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20279/

[aberdeensouth]

Jul 3, 2024 15:44:43 GMT right said:

Jul 1, 2024 11:49:43 GMT irish observer said:

I think Cherry deserves to hold for being a critic of her own party on several issues and is also a legislator. Those kind of people have political cojones are good MPs and Westminster is the place for them. Why replace a National figure with let's face it a lobby-fodder backbencher?

She certainly seems to be trading on her independent streak, had to check if she was SNP at all - like a lot of the Tory leaflets

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20279/

And seems to be using a rather younger looking picture of herself!!

[No Offence Alan]

Jul 1, 2024 11:49:43 GMT irish observer said:

I think Cherry deserves to hold for being a critic of her own party on several issues and is also a legislator. Those kind of people have political cojones are good MPs and Westminster is the place for them. Why replace a National figure with let's face it a lobby-fodder backbencher?

I recently read about a study of voters and their attitudes to "rebel" MPs.
They liked MPs who rebelled 10% of the time, but didn't like MPs who followed the party line 90% of the time.

[right]

Jul 3, 2024 16:12:07 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Jul 1, 2024 11:49:43 GMT irish observer said:

I think Cherry deserves to hold for being a critic of her own party on several issues and is also a legislator. Those kind of people have political cojones are good MPs and Westminster is the place for them. Why replace a National figure with let's face it a lobby-fodder backbencher?

I recently read about a study of voters and their attitudes to "rebel" MPs.
They liked MPs who rebelled 10% of the time, but didn't like MPs who followed the party line 90% of the time.

That's why bar charts help

[john07]

Apr 11, 2024 13:13:32 GMT Tony Otim said:

Apr 11, 2024 12:23:52 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

This part of the city has been trending to Labour and Scott Arthur is a popular local candidate, having managed to turn the once safely Tory Colinton/Fairmilehead ward to Labour. My instinct is, based on current polling, that he will win here.

Not so sure about this - in 2022 Labour were up in some wards here (Colinton/Fairmilehead, Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart) but down in others (Pentland Hills) - they would still have been 3rd overall in votes and start quite a way back.

I don’t see local authority results, especially ones using STV being much use to predict this seat. Cherry might have some appeal to conservative voters but most have proved very anti-nationalist and prepared to use tactical votes.

It remains a difficult one to call although I expect Scott Arthur to edge it.

[irish observer]

Jul 3, 2024 16:05:34 GMT aberdeensouth said:

Jul 3, 2024 15:44:43 GMT right said:

She certainly seems to be trading on her independent streak, had to check if she was SNP at all - like a lot of the Tory leaflets

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20279/

And seems to be using a rather younger looking picture of herself!!

Well alot of politicians do that now, even some male ones!