stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 1:53:51 GMT
East Renfrewshire
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Post by yellowfox on Mar 21, 2024 17:51:27 GMT
Kirsten Oswald, SNP incumbent since 2019, defends a 5,426 (10%) vote majority here. She previously held the seat between 2015 and 17 before a Conservative interlude. Oswald is part of the SNP mainstream, is currently the SNP party chair and was previously deputy party leader at Westminster during Ian Blackford's leadership.
Her tory challenger is Sandesh Gulhane, a GP who has been an MSP for Glasgow since 2021. Labour, who held this seat from 1997 until 2015 but only polled 12% in 2019, have nominated Blair McDougall. McDougall, who stood here for the party in 2017, is most notable for being the chief strategist of the better together campaign in 2014. He's of the Labour mainstream, which will play well here, and has previously worked for David Milliband and Jess Philips.
A hard one to call, because Conservative tactical votes for Labour are presumably more viable in Scotland this year than Labour tactical votes for the tories. My view is still that any of the three big parties could win here.
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Post by uthacalthing on Mar 21, 2024 17:59:35 GMT
Blair McDougall's reputation seems to be enhanced by his previous role, even though he ran a disastrous campaign and nearly lost it. I vaguely recall however that he wrote an impressive piece about his private life, although sadly can't recall what it was about.
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Post by mrsir on Mar 23, 2024 19:29:25 GMT
I think either this seat or East Lothian are the most likely seat where the SNP won’t finish first or second.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Apr 11, 2024 12:16:22 GMT
I think either this seat or East Lothian are the most likely seat where the SNP won’t finish first or second. The most likely is easily Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - a seat where both Conservatives and Labour seem to be competitive. This is reflected in YouGov's MRP poll, which also suggests it is the most likely seat in Scotland where the SNP will come third. |
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 11, 2024 17:56:47 GMT
I think either this seat or East Lothian are the most likely seat where the SNP won’t finish first or second. The most likely is easily Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - a seat where both Conservatives and Labour seem to be competitive. This is reflected in YouGov's MRP poll, which also suggests it is the most likely seat in Scotland where the SNP will come third. I agree. I expect a sharp drop in the Conservative vote in East Lothian due to tactical voting, which should keep the SNP in a distant second place. |
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Post by Antiochian on Jun 3, 2024 16:49:03 GMT
The Liberal Party is running Allan Steele, a military lawyer in this constituency.
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jun 3, 2024 18:59:59 GMT
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Post by batman on Jun 3, 2024 21:46:18 GMT
I don't like the idea of lawyers being armed.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 3, 2024 21:47:01 GMT
Serious question Kristofer: why join the SNP now (I know it was a little while ago, but you know what I mean)? They are facing so many challenges, making decisions that show arrogance rather than common sense, and are likely to get, at best, a bit of a drubbing at the General election. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 4, 2024 6:52:45 GMT
Serious question Kristofer: why join the SNP now (I know it was a little while ago, but you know what I mean)? They are facing so many challenges, making decisions that show arrogance rather than common sense, and are likely to get, at best, a bit of a drubbing at the General election. IIRC he joined when Lisa Cameron left, because she was the reason why he wasn't a member. |
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jun 4, 2024 6:56:09 GMT
Serious question Kristofer: why join the SNP now (I know it was a little while ago, but you know what I mean)? They are facing so many challenges, making decisions that show arrogance rather than common sense, and are likely to get, at best, a bit of a drubbing at the General election. I rejoined the day that Lisa Cameron left the party, that solved a lot of the local issues... I have been a member for a long time now - I first joined the SNP in 2011, left in 2014 when I moved to England, rejoined in 2016 when I was planning to move back to Scotland, left in 2018 over the local issues but remained on friendly terms with most of the branch, then rejoined 2023 (and I also haven't been a member of any other parties since 2011). So this was more a return to normal. The SNP is also at a bit of a crossroads. Yes, it seems quite possible we're heading into a period in opposition at Holyrood (Westminster is less important from an SNP perspective), but given that the party has been in government continuously since I was a teenager that feels inevitable eventually. If anything, I think that's more reason to be involved now. The SNP manages the big tent thing quite successfully but I'd like to see the party remaining firmly on the progressive left, and I think key to that is that tendency has to keep turning up and doing the work. And drubbings are relative - as no one is ever likely to let me forget I started out politically as a Green and being SNP on a bad night is still likely to be a much better result than being Green on a good night.  |
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jun 7, 2024 17:53:29 GMT
Matt Alexander - Reform
Alan Grant - Lib Dems
Sandesh Gulhane - Conservatives and Unionists
Blair McDougall - Labour
Kirsten Frances Oswald - SNP
Maria Reid - Scottish Family Party
Karen Sharkey - Greens
Allan Steele - Liberal Party
Colette Walker - Independence for Scotland Party
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 7, 2024 17:56:40 GMT
I am going to stick my neck out. I think this seat will be a sign of the bad night for the SNP, with the seat going to Blair McDougall.
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Eastwood
Non-Aligned
Politically restricted post
Posts: 2,122
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Post by Eastwood on Jun 21, 2024 7:32:23 GMT
Just had a paid Facebook advert pop up for the Liberal Party.
“Allan Steele promises to safeguard the dignity of women and girls”
Hmm. Previous actions may slightly undermine this pledge…
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2024 1:42:55 GMT
A reverse of 2017 when Labour voters from 2015 helped the Conservatives win - now Labour will be the beneficiary of tactical voting here, and the SNP's fall.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 26, 2024 21:19:34 GMT
Calling this for Labour.
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Post by irish observer on Jul 1, 2024 12:31:25 GMT
Labour gain of Jim Murphy's seat but given that this was initially a strong Tory area is this good for them for this to return to Labour?
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Post by adlai52 on Jul 1, 2024 12:42:13 GMT
Labour gain of Jim Murphy's seat but given that this was initially a strong Tory area is this good for them for this to return to Labour? Makes regaining this harder for the Conservatives in the future. Although, this type of seat is unlikely to be one the Scots Tories prioritize in the future. Depending on the scale of the defeat on Thursday, Conservatives will focus on more rural seats in the North East and Borders. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jul 3, 2024 7:36:05 GMT
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