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Post by edgbaston on Aug 13, 2024 12:29:52 GMT
An impressive result here for them yes and not enough talk about this and Greens being second in quite a few places (whereas Reform...). Clearly Cllr Cooper must have attracted votes from not only his own ward. They did of course gain Crossland Moor at the LEs this year but that is only two wards - this is no Bristol, Brighton, Suffolk or Herefordshire where they had a clear local government base. An interesting symmetry when it comes to the 4 Green seats - two urban 'metropolitan', graduate heavy areas where they attack Labour and two very rural areas they took form the conservatives - so next time Huddersfield, a more average town, could well be put on the map and nobody could see it coming. Who knows how much of a personal vote Barry Sherman had which disappeared even though safe to say I heard mixed reviews about him. How much of the impressive increase in the Green vote is down to the fact that the well respected Labour incumbent retired this election? Barry was seen to have a negative personal vote, perhaps unfairly, but correctly |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 13, 2024 12:47:58 GMT
How much of the impressive increase in the Green vote is down to the fact that the well respected Labour incumbent retired this election? Barry was seen to have a negative personal vote, perhaps unfairly, but correctly There were no Independent candidates. The Green candidate, Andrew Cooper, is very pro-Palestinian and I think many Muslim voters voted Green. Read this kirklees.greenparty.org.uk/2024/06/11/a-letter-on-gaza-to-voters-in-huddersfield/ |
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 13, 2024 13:37:05 GMT
indeed see the local election results in greenhead and crossland moor |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 13, 2024 15:11:08 GMT
On paper at least, Huddersfield, Bristol East and Bristol South where the Greens have established a clear second place to Labour would appear to be their best prospects for future gains. I suspect the Greens will probably be a lot more ambitious than that next election unless they are doing very poorly nationally. Their strategy of copying the Lib Dems' local focus has worked and they'll have seen the Lib Dems get 72 MPs with only 12% of the national vote. They'll want a target list reasonably distributed across the country so as to give local activists everywhere something to aim for; I'd expect the Green target list to be something along the lines of: Huddersfield, all four Bristol seats, Sheffield Central, Brighton Kemptown, Hove, Norwich South, Leeds Central, Leeds South, Kettering, Cambridge, Manchester Rusholme, Manchester Withington, Canterbury, Hastings, Bath, Isle of Wight East, South Shields, Exeter, Birkenhead, Reading Central, Worcester, Cardiff South (24 seats in total) Plus some London seats- this is the hardest one to work out prioritization with as there aren't really any that clearly stand out as priorities- this may become clear in the coming years depending on local election strength, agreements with independents, etc. |
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Post by batman on Aug 13, 2024 16:03:41 GMT
some of those look more sensible than others. Quite a few of those are patently beyond them. I mean, South Shields? Come on.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2024 16:05:29 GMT
Hebden Bridge has Green Party potential? I think Holmfirth might as well. Obviously Leed in the student areas.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 13, 2024 16:13:35 GMT
some of those look more sensible than others. Quite a few of those are patently beyond them. I mean, South Shields? Come on. Two months ago I recall widespread mockery of the concept that the Greens may be able to win North Herefordshire. South Shields is somewhere where the Greens were narrowly ahead of Labour at the last local elections; it's their strongest area in the Northeast. Definitely winnable for them with enough effort; they got 15% this election and would probably only need 30% or so to win the seat. |
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Post by ccoleman on Aug 13, 2024 18:39:16 GMT
Leeds Central & Headingley and Sheffield Central are probably their best chances of winning anything in Yorkshire.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2024 18:44:52 GMT
Leeds Central & Headingley and Sheffield Central are probably their best chances of winning anything in Yorkshire. Maybe Leeds NW, and Sheffield Hallam too one day. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 13, 2024 20:52:02 GMT
Leeds Central & Headingley and Sheffield Central are probably their best chances of winning anything in Yorkshire. Maybe Leeds NW, and Sheffield Hallam too one day. Leeds NW had the second-worst Green performance out of the seven Leeds seats... Leeds Central 23.5% Leeds South 18.4% Leeds North East 13.1% Leeds West 9.9% Leeds East 8.9% Leeds North West 6.5% Leeds South West 6.3% |
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Post by ccoleman on Aug 13, 2024 21:29:55 GMT
Leeds Central & Headingley and Sheffield Central are probably their best chances of winning anything in Yorkshire. Maybe Leeds NW, and Sheffield Hallam too one day. The current Leeds NW doesn't have a sizable student population like the old one. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 14, 2024 12:14:06 GMT
I tend to think that Huddersfield is a particularly hard nut to crack for them. They have some strong wards but quite a few where Labour will continue to be well ahead of them. The Bristol seats may possibly have more potential. Possible declining (GB) student numbers and the growth of new housing (especially in the north of the constituency) are unlikely to favour the Greens even if Labour continued to lose votes on their left flank. New housing on greenbelt on the other hand though can be a magnet for green protest votes from a different part of the constituency a la Waveney Valley. 5,000 votes behind is a very creditable result and they will throw the kitchen sink at this one next time, and who can blame them. There is also probably a general dissatisfaction with Kirklees council (though this is more pronounced in Batley/Dewsbury/Spen) and the Greens may use this as a stick to beat Labour with. After the two Green wards here I think Greenhead (aptly named) could also be a good area for them. Lindley would be even better (LD voters could go Green) except it is in Colne Valley. On the other side of the Pennines, Withington could have a slightly higher chance of an upset than Central which now has Failsworth which you wouldn’t think be fertile for the Greens - having said that, it has enjoyed punishing Labour locally in recent times. And 2005 MW was a bit of a shock result for the LD so who knows if it could happen again now the Greens are a clear second. |
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Post by batman on Aug 14, 2024 13:05:53 GMT
well up to a point. Labour is still objectively very strong in Manchester Central as a whole.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 15, 2024 10:49:46 GMT
some of those look more sensible than others. Quite a few of those are patently beyond them. I mean, South Shields? Come on. Two months ago I recall widespread mockery of the concept that the Greens may be able to win North Herefordshire. South Shields is somewhere where the Greens were narrowly ahead of Labour at the last local elections; it's their strongest area in the Northeast. Definitely winnable for them with enough effort; they got 15% this election and would probably only need 30% or so to win the seat. Yes but the South Tyneside elections this May were a total bin fire (choice of words very much intentional) for Labour - I would hesitate to read too much into them just yet. All the opposition parties have to be prepared for the *possibility* that Labour will increase their vote share at the next GE, rather than the opposite. Its one of the potential plus points of getting elected with an overall vote of 34% rather than 44%. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 15, 2024 12:19:00 GMT
Two months ago I recall widespread mockery of the concept that the Greens may be able to win North Herefordshire. South Shields is somewhere where the Greens were narrowly ahead of Labour at the last local elections; it's their strongest area in the Northeast. Definitely winnable for them with enough effort; they got 15% this election and would probably only need 30% or so to win the seat. Yes but the South Tyneside elections this May were a total bin fire (choice of words very much intentional) for Labour - I would hesitate to read too much into them just yet. All the opposition parties have to be prepared for the *possibility* that Labour will increase their vote share at the next GE, rather than the opposite. Its one of the potential plus points of getting elected with an overall vote of 34% rather than 44%. Sure, if Labour significantly improves their performance then that is a possibility and in such a case the Greens probably wouldn't gain any seats at all. But if the Greens continue to gain a bit whilst Labour doesn't do as well, there's definitely a chance of a breakthrough in quite a few seats. |
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