stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 1:03:03 GMT
North Shropshire
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 15, 2024 12:20:52 GMT
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binky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by binky on Jun 3, 2024 16:28:02 GMT
For what it's worth, YouGov has this as "likely LibDem." Color me skeptical, but does Helen Morgan have a significant personal following?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 3, 2024 16:30:50 GMT
For what it's worth, YouGov has this as "likely LibDem." Color me skeptical, but does Helen Morgan have a significant personal following? We'll have to wait until July to know, but she has been extremely active since the moment of her election: easily the most high-profile Marches MP in the regional media. If she doesn't make it in the end, it won't be due to a lack of effort. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 3, 2024 17:32:49 GMT
I would go further and says she’s been really active since the by-election.
(I’m not an impartial source I grant you.)
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steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
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Post by steve on Jun 3, 2024 20:06:02 GMT
I would go further and says she’s been really active since the by-election. (I’m not an impartial source I grant you.) Yes, it's more than just a media presence with regular meetings with her constituents and community groups, continuous door knocking since the by-election, various forms of feedback, etc. Whether they like her or not her constituents are definitely very aware of her presence. In pretty much any other GE this would be a tough hold but in current circumstances I would think she has a pretty good chance of holding on and getting at least one full term. |
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hengog
Conservative
Posts: 1,414
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Post by hengog on Jun 3, 2024 20:29:15 GMT
My sister in law confirms this! Apparently she’s around town all the time and this goes down well in a place like Oswestry. Don’t know about the smaller communities which were always staunchly Tory , but from what I’m told she’s well liked.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 3, 2024 21:11:14 GMT
I would go further and says she’s been really active since the by-election. (I’m not an impartial source I grant you.) If you follow her on Facebook it's easy to get the impression that she must have met everyone in the constituency by now, some of them at least twice. The workrate must be phenomenal. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jun 3, 2024 23:20:06 GMT
For what it's worth, YouGov has this as "likely LibDem." Color me skeptical, but does Helen Morgan have a significant personal following? I think you’re gonna find out pretty comprehensively next month! |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Post by Rural Radical on Jun 4, 2024 9:32:35 GMT
For what it's worth, YouGov has this as "likely LibDem." Color me skeptical, but does Helen Morgan have a significant personal following? We'll have to wait until July to know, but she has been extremely active since the moment of her election: easily the most high-profile Marches MP in the regional media. If she doesn't make it in the end, it won't be due to a lack of effort. Most of my family live here (and all voted for her in the by election). I’m told that she is very well liked and a huge improvement on Owen Paterson |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 4, 2024 9:40:02 GMT
We'll have to wait until July to know, but she has been extremely active since the moment of her election: easily the most high-profile Marches MP in the regional media. If she doesn't make it in the end, it won't be due to a lack of effort. Most of my family live here (and all voted for her in the by election). I’m told that she is very well liked and a huge improvement on Owen Paterson Ah bless. All comfy and cosy then. Potholes all filled. Planning applications all refused. Pink spectacles for everyone. La La Land made real. Pass the sick bags please. |
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Post by noorderling on Jun 4, 2024 11:03:10 GMT
Most of my family live here (and all voted for her in the by election). I’m told that she is very well liked and a huge improvement on Owen Paterson Ah bless. All comfy and cosy then. Potholes all filled. Planning applications all refused. Pink spectacles for everyone. La La Land made real. Pass the sick bags please. Isn’t this the inevitable effect of FPTP? I would not expect a Dutch MP to solve my personal problems or be on the alert for potholes in my neighborhood. I pay him/her to in Parliament support/oppose/propose policies and be an advocate for a certain political direction. I would judge him/her and their party on their effort in parliament. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Jun 4, 2024 11:16:16 GMT
For what it's worth, YouGov has this as "likely LibDem." Color me skeptical, but does Helen Morgan have a significant personal following? Colour Sceptical. Ans: yes. Unlike the previous incumbent she has to be visible (emphasis added). |
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hengog
Conservative
Posts: 1,414
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Post by hengog on Jun 4, 2024 12:09:16 GMT
We'll have to wait until July to know, but she has been extremely active since the moment of her election: easily the most high-profile Marches MP in the regional media. If she doesn't make it in the end, it won't be due to a lack of effort. Most of my family live here (and all voted for her in the by election). I’m told that she is very well liked and a huge improvement on Owen Paterson Where I grew up and still have family. I think the Conservatives would have won the by-election if they hadn’t chosen a hopelessly inappropriate candidate. It’s one of those places where it really counts. And now some of the factors which make it so work in her favour. Oswestry itself though isn’t entirely typical of the constituency as a whole. It was always a working town with the railway as significant as the market, until its closure, and young farmer types outnumbered by squaddies in the 50 odd pubs on a Saturday night before the customary fight outside the Plaza! But the camp closed long ago as have many of the pubs, yet the town still has something of its old flavour- not obviously Conservative natural territory. It’s different though beyond the town and hard to guess what the feeling is among those small communities. |
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,265
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Post by WJ on Jun 6, 2024 17:34:07 GMT
I don't think I necessarily agree with the idea that it was the candidate that caused the Conservatives to loose the by-election here, though the result might have been a bit closer with a better fit. I think there are few middle-England, rural seats that they could have held.
For a bit more anecdata. I was chatting with my parents (who live in a small village in the middle of the constituency) the other day and both of them, who haven't voted anything other than Tory their whole lives were making very complementary noises about her. Whether that will translate into a vote for her or not, I don't know yet.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Jun 6, 2024 17:40:46 GMT
My sister in law confirms this! Apparently she’s around town all the time and this goes down well in a place like Oswestry. Don’t know about the smaller communities which were always staunchly Tory , but from what I’m told she’s well liked. Villages love someone coming around to fetes and church services. They're probably easier to please than more urban electorates - as long as you are around. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Post by Rural Radical on Jun 6, 2024 17:58:28 GMT
Most of my family live here (and all voted for her in the by election). I’m told that she is very well liked and a huge improvement on Owen Paterson Where I grew up and still have family. I think the Conservatives would have won the by-election if they hadn’t chosen a hopelessly inappropriate candidate. It’s one of those places where it really counts. And now some of the factors which make it so work in her favour. Oswestry itself though isn’t entirely typical of the constituency as a whole. It was always a working town with the railway as significant as the market, until its closure, and young farmer types outnumbered by squaddies in the 50 odd pubs on a Saturday night before the customary fight outside the Plaza! But the camp closed long ago as have many of the pubs, yet the town still has something of its old flavour- not obviously Conservative natural territory. It’s different though beyond the town and hard to guess what the feeling is among those small communities. I don't think a better candidate would have won for the Conservatives. However since the by election Helen Morgan has been very visible and she seems to be well liked by both former Conservative & former Labour voters which takes a skill. |
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steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
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Post by steve on Jun 6, 2024 22:45:39 GMT
Most of my family live here (and all voted for her in the by election). I’m told that she is very well liked and a huge improvement on Owen Paterson Where I grew up and still have family. I think the Conservatives would have won the by-election if they hadn’t chosen a hopelessly inappropriate candidate. It’s one of those places where it really counts. And now some of the factors which make it so work in her favour. Oswestry itself though isn’t entirely typical of the constituency as a whole. It was always a working town with the railway as significant as the market, until its closure, and young farmer types outnumbered by squaddies in the 50 odd pubs on a Saturday night before the customary fight outside the Plaza! But the camp closed long ago as have many of the pubs, yet the town still has something of its old flavour- not obviously Conservative natural territory. It’s different though beyond the town and hard to guess what the feeling is among those small communities. Can I just say how impressed I am by your ability to get around 50 pubs on a Saturday night! |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jun 7, 2024 12:24:52 GMT
Where I grew up and still have family. I think the Conservatives would have won the by-election if they hadn’t chosen a hopelessly inappropriate candidate. It’s one of those places where it really counts. And now some of the factors which make it so work in her favour. Oswestry itself though isn’t entirely typical of the constituency as a whole. It was always a working town with the railway as significant as the market, until its closure, and young farmer types outnumbered by squaddies in the 50 odd pubs on a Saturday night before the customary fight outside the Plaza! But the camp closed long ago as have many of the pubs, yet the town still has something of its old flavour- not obviously Conservative natural territory. It’s different though beyond the town and hard to guess what the feeling is among those small communities. Can I just say how impressed I am by your ability to get around 50 pubs on a Saturday night! He obviously use to train with William Hague in the past! |
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hengog
Conservative
Posts: 1,414
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Post by hengog on Jun 7, 2024 16:11:57 GMT
Well I think I had a drink in every one at some time or other. All those pubs, and almost every one , if you wanted draught beer, serving the same Border Bitter! Avoiding the ones where trouble was more likely I could start at the Sun , proceed down Church St to the cross, then up Willow St, finishing at the Top White Lion on my way home - another two miles walk. I think that, with a couple of short detours, gave something like 15 pubs to choose from , over maybe 800 yards. There were course several other routes. Sadly, several of the pubs are now gone, but I’m fairly sure, if asked , the current MP will promise to get them reopened , or at least work hard to do so. Along with the ‘ Gobowen Flyer’ ( train).
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