stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:54:22 GMT
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 15, 2024 12:33:17 GMT
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Post by Yaffles on Mar 28, 2024 10:06:19 GMT
The boundary changes here are bound to dampen Liam Byrne's majority a little. The seat becomes noticeably more white working class as a result of the addition of Castle Bromwich and Smiths Wood (and yes I know Castle Brom residents probably think they are middle class). However, the lion's share of the vote will still be coming from the largely Pakistani Asian areas of Hodge Hill, Ward End and Heartlands. A strong ant-Labour pro-Gaza candidate or campaign could have some impact but I suspect the Labour majority will be on the high side.
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 1, 2024 13:02:51 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 1, 2024 13:24:32 GMT
Workers Party are standing: |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 1, 2024 13:37:48 GMT
Although still substantial, most observers don't seem to have clocked that this is a much less muslim seat than the old Hodge Hill, after the boundary changes. It is now only the 5th largest muslim population in Birmingham. Conversely, presumably because of the presence of Moseley in the name, people haven't clocked that that seat now has the highest muslim population in Birmingham, and the second highest in the whole country.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 1, 2024 15:49:48 GMT
Although still substantial, most observers don't seem to have clocked that this is a much less muslim seat than the old Hodge Hill, after the boundary changes. It is now only the 5th largest muslim population in Birmingham. Conversely, presumably because of the presence of Moseley in the name, people haven't clocked that that seat now has the highest muslim population in Birmingham, and the second highest in the whole country. Yes, can't see the Workers party doing anything in Castle Brom |
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Post by batman on Jun 1, 2024 16:44:35 GMT
James Giles remains on Kingston-upon-Thames Council. He does not sit as a Workers' Party councillor there and is remarkably silent about his activities in that party to local voters.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 1, 2024 20:32:20 GMT
Although still substantial, most observers don't seem to have clocked that this is a much less muslim seat than the old Hodge Hill, after the boundary changes. It is now only the 5th largest muslim population in Birmingham. Conversely, presumably because of the presence of Moseley in the name, people haven't clocked that that seat now has the highest muslim population in Birmingham, and the second highest in the whole country. Yes, can't see the Workers party doing anything in Castle Brom The same is true in Smiths Wood which is also transferred in and has a very low Muslim population. However, neither are particularly good for Labour at the local level and Smiths Wood has very poor turnout. Galloway's creature could do OK, depending on if there is another Gaza candidate from the Kashmiri community or not, I've heard two names mentioned, whether this happens or not - Inshallah. However, if it does, he will find out that except for the Gorgeous One, that the Kashmiri community will vote for an Indo of their own as long as they are reasonable well known and connected rather than some gora from London. If he is the sole Gaza candidate, then he will stand a chance of second place and will keep his deposit. Let's see after SOPN day. |
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bd
Labour
Posts: 109
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Post by bd on Jun 2, 2024 7:58:47 GMT
It’s not just how a particular community might vote it is also about resources. In this sort of seat there are two ways to get out the vote in a general election. There’s tried and tested identifying your supporters and motivating them to go and vote or there’s using links into a closely knit community to promote a particular candidate. In a by-election you might also benefit from a heightened level of media attention and concentration of resources in one particular seat but this is much less available in a general election.
The Workers Party is going to have next to no intelligence in this constituency so voter identification/mobilisation is out. If other independent candidates stand then they are far more likely to have in roads to community networks which leaves the Workers Party with no route to a meaningful operation. Maybe the population will tend to vote for a candidate of one ethnicity over another but it is also about practicalities.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 2, 2024 10:57:34 GMT
It’s not just how a particular community might vote it is also about resources. In this sort of seat there are two ways to get out the vote in a general election. There’s tried and tested identifying your supporters and motivating them to go and vote or there’s using links into a closely knit community to promote a particular candidate. In a by-election you might also benefit from a heightened level of media attention and concentration of resources in one particular seat but this is much less available in a general election. The Workers Party is going to have next to no intelligence in this constituency so voter identification/mobilisation is out. If other independent candidates stand then they are far more likely to have in roads to community networks which leaves the Workers Party with no route to a meaningful operation. Maybe the population will tend to vote for a candidate of one ethnicity over another but it is also about practicalities. Galloway has some contacts from Respect days in East Birmingham, although some of then are not very friendly to him these days. Roughly, yes, that's the way it will pan out - but there is a groundswell amongst younger voters which falls outside of that and may have been the cause of a distinct portion of the "Lawyer with a Lambo" vote. As the creature of Galloway, who has name recognition unless any other Indo has name recognition, he should receive some of that. Liam, of course, will be campaigning hard in the east of the seat whilst his proxies. I don't think there's a real danger here, but let's see the runners and riders first. |
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ExLib
Non-Aligned
Posts: 174
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Post by ExLib on Jun 5, 2024 20:21:35 GMT
Might be a few Green votes in the Solihull Council bits of the constituency. What wa lost of the old one on the Brum side?
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 5, 2024 23:39:42 GMT
Might be a few Green votes in the Solihull Council bits of the constituency. What wa lost of the old one on the Brum side? Lots of Muslim inner city areas. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 6, 2024 6:17:22 GMT
Might be a few Green votes in the Solihull Council bits of the constituency. What was lost of the old one on the Brum side? Said Green votes haven't really shown up at a GE yet and they are in decline in The Wood. Parts of the old Bordesley Green and Washwood Heath wards were lost, super-majority working class Muslim wards. Liam will not miss Alum Rock. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 7, 2024 11:54:22 GMT
James Giles remains on Kingston-upon-Thames Council. He does not sit as a Workers' Party councillor there and is remarkably silent about his activities in that party to local voters. He's just a paper candidate surely. Just like the four Kingston Lib Dem councillors standing to make up the numbers. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2024 12:32:32 GMT
Lib Dems would probably have won the 2004 by-election on these boundaries.
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 7, 2024 12:43:20 GMT
Lib Dems would probably have won the 2004 by-election on these boundaries. I’m not sure that’s true - the Labour voting coalition was very different in 2004 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 7, 2024 12:45:22 GMT
Lib Dems would probably have won the 2004 by-election on these boundaries. You obviously have no understanding of why the Lib Dems came close to winning the by-election (either that, or you don't understand the boundary changes, but to give you a clue, the Lib Dems didn't storm ahead in Shard End) |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 7, 2024 13:37:09 GMT
Lib Dems would probably have won the 2004 by-election on these boundaries. I’m not sure that’s true - the Labour voting coalition was very different in 2004 Well, when compared to 2019. Perhaps this year not so much here. |
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 7, 2024 13:53:42 GMT
I’m not sure that’s true - the Labour voting coalition was very different in 2004 Well, when compared to 2019. Perhaps this year not so much here. Yes - very true |
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