Weston-super-Mare

[stb12]

Weston-super-Mare

[r34t]

Labour have selected Dan Aldridge, head of policy at British Computer Society. From WSM which explains a very clear win in the selection, ahead of an ex-MEP

[haroldthepolitician]

I reckon this could be a shockingly clear cut victory for Labour

Labour - 44%
Conservative - 36%
Liberal Democrat - 9%
Reform - 8%
Green - 3%

[Clark]

Yeah Labour a paltry 3/10 to win here.

[WestCountryRadical]

SOPN

Dan Aldridge (Lab)
Thomas Daw (Grn)
Patrick Keating (LD)
Richard Pearse (Ref)
John Penrose (Con)

[November_Rain]

My old constituency. I think it'll be a three way between Reform, Lab and Cons. LDs will probably get a few and Green candidate won't do well.

[November_Rain]

Why not:

Lab 31.1%
Ref 27.7% (I believe this is a target for them, and I see this as a referendum on the council. Could nick it)
Cons 25.9%
LD 11.4%
Grn 3.9%

[batman]

I really don't see Reform coming close to winning this seat. I know you're infinitely more local than I am, but I think you are wrong about this.

[haroldthepolitician]

Mar 14, 2024 0:51:17 GMT stb12 said:

Weston-super-Mare

Dan Aldridge is an incredibly strong candidate. Reform are certainly not going to win or come close here (UKIP were no where near) however they will definitely sink the tories.

I'd now consider this a very likely Labour gain in the general election.

[haroldthepolitician]

Labour - 43%
Conservative - 30%
Reform - 18%
Liberal Democrat - 7%
Green - 2%

[froome]

Jun 9, 2024 21:37:45 GMT haroldthepolitician said:

Labour - 43%
Conservative - 30%
Reform - 18%
Liberal Democrat - 7%
Green - 2%

This looks a pretty good prediction on current polling. This is probably Labour's best chance to win a constituency in the old county of Somerset, though in the current situation they obviously have a fair chance of winning others as well. I would expect Reform to do better here than in North Somerset. 2% for us would be very disappointing, as much of our vote will be in the villages where Labour are unlikely to poll very well.

It feels almost like ancient history remembering that the constituency based on this town had a Lib Dem MP not that long ago!

[Ports]

Jun 9, 2024 21:37:45 GMT haroldthepolitician said:

Labour - 43%
Conservative - 30%
Reform - 18%
Liberal Democrat - 7%
Green - 2%

Well the margin was the average of your two predictions, so well done.

[batman]

the Tories had an absolute mare here.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 24, 2024 8:08:40 GMT batman said:

the Tories had an absolute mare here.

They jockeyed for position but fell at the final fence in this two-horse race. But it was a bumpers year for Labour, who did well in many a Newmarket for them. But is this only a short-term win or the real AP McCoy? The electorate were not well turned-out.

[batman]

we didn't have to wait fur long for a reply

[froome]

The nearest Weston gets to horse racing is the beach, where the donkeys don't exactly gallop, more plod around at a very, very slow pace.

Fortunately it is a Flat Holm straight for them.

[Foggy]

Jul 24, 2024 8:51:16 GMT froome said:

The nearest Weston gets to horse racing is the beach, where the donkeys don't exactly gallop, more plod around at a very, very slow pace.

Fortunately it is a Flat Holm straight for them.

That's part of Cardiff. The going is steeper on the English side of the Bristol Channel. 

[john07]

Jul 24, 2024 8:08:40 GMT batman said:

the Tories had an absolute mare here.

Super!

[bsjmcr]

Jul 24, 2024 8:08:40 GMT batman said:

the Tories had an absolute mare here.

I wonder how many people knew that John Penrose is married to ‘the TalkTalk Baroness’ who made a mess over test and trace and voted accordingly? The pandemic may be a distant memory but people do remember these things.

[batman]

It is well-known & is presumably even better-known in his own constituency.