Torbay

[stb12]

Torbay

[binky]

Is this one gone forever for the Liberals post-Sanders?

[johnt64]

May 29, 2024 13:09:42 GMT binky said:

Is this one gone forever for the Liberals post-Sanders?

Not sure, it’s some way down the Lib Dem target list. Foster will survive if the opposition vote is split. But if the anti Tory vote joins he will probably lose. The Lib Dem candidate is well know, former head of the council and worked for Sanders. So if he can persuade people he is the anti government candidate he might just get over the line. 
Will be an interesting one on election night. 

[steve]

May 29, 2024 13:09:42 GMT binky said:

Is this one gone forever for the Liberals post-Sanders?

I think the top targets in Devon are likely Honiton & Sidmouth where they are defending their by-election winner's seat, North Devon given its tradition and South Devon where former MEP Caroline Voaden has been running a strong campaign for sometime. However, I wouldn't discount them in either Torbay or Newton Abbot on a good night. In last year's LE they won 15 of the 26 seats which lie within the constituency so they clearly still have a vote there at least at local level.

There's a council by-election in one of the Conservative wards in the constituency on 6/6 so that may give some hint as to how things stand there before the GE.

[johnt64]

Sunak has been in the southwest today pushing people not to vote Lib Dem but to vote tactically for the Tories to keep Starmer out. I appreciate that the Lib Dem’s are very unlikely to do a deal with the current Tory party but I do find it amusing that they seem to forget that the last two minority administrations were both Tory led.

[evergreenadam]

May 29, 2024 16:13:19 GMT steve said:

May 29, 2024 13:09:42 GMT binky said:

Is this one gone forever for the Liberals post-Sanders?

I think the top targets in Devon are likely Honiton & Sidmouth where they are defending their by-election winner's seat, North Devon given its tradition and South Devon where former MEP Caroline Voaden has been running a strong campaign for sometime. However, I wouldn't discount them in either Torbay or Newton Abbot on a good night. In last year's LE they won 15 of the 26 seats which lie within the constituency so they clearly still have a vote there at least at local level.

There's a council by-election in one of the Conservative wards in the constituency on 6/6 so that may give some hint as to how things stand there before the GE.

Tories clung on by 9 votes in what was a rock solid ward for them, high turnout as control of the Council was at stake. The winning candidate was the wife of the Tory Parliamentary candidate.

[carlton43]

Jun 7, 2024 8:56:49 GMT evergreenadam said:

May 29, 2024 16:13:19 GMT steve said:

I think the top targets in Devon are likely Honiton & Sidmouth where they are defending their by-election winner's seat, North Devon given its tradition and South Devon where former MEP Caroline Voaden has been running a strong campaign for sometime. However, I wouldn't discount them in either Torbay or Newton Abbot on a good night. In last year's LE they won 15 of the 26 seats which lie within the constituency so they clearly still have a vote there at least at local level.

There's a council by-election in one of the Conservative wards in the constituency on 6/6 so that may give some hint as to how things stand there before the GE.

Tories clung on by 9 votes in what was a rock solid ward for them, high turnout as control of the Council was at stake. The winning candidate was the wife of the Tory Parliamentary candidate.

But it is always only the headline that matters.  They won it.  Period.  Only anoraks are interested in the scores on the doors.

[johnt64]

Jun 7, 2024 10:38:44 GMT carlton43 said:

Jun 7, 2024 8:56:49 GMT evergreenadam said:

Tories clung on by 9 votes in what was a rock solid ward for them, high turnout as control of the Council was at stake. The winning candidate was the wife of the Tory Parliamentary candidate.

But it is always only the headline that matters.  They won it.  Period.  Only anoraks are interested in the scores on the doors.

That may be true. But that is not what the headlines will say. They will say

There was a 19% swing from the Tories to the Liberal Democrat’s, to take the parliamentary constituency there would need to be a 17% swing.

The Labour and Green votes were well down suggesting that, in this one seat at least, maybe the tactical voting message is landing with the left leaning voters at least.

There was quite a strong reform vote which might have been part of the reason for the lower labour vote, but certainly also hurts the local Tory

I also wonder if winning helps the Tories and harms the Lib Dem’s anyway. Being 9 votes away is a great selling point to activists and voters. I seem to recall the last time the Lib Dem’s took Torbay from the Tories it was by 12 votes. This will certainly motivate those committed on both sides.

There will be a bar chart appearing before long, I can feel it!

[carlton43]

Jun 7, 2024 11:08:27 GMT johnt64 said:

Jun 7, 2024 10:38:44 GMT carlton43 said:

But it is always only the headline that matters.  They won it.  Period.  Only anoraks are interested in the scores on the doors.

That may be true. But that is not what the headlines will say. They will say

There was a 19% swing from the Tories to the Liberal Democrat’s, to take the parliamentary constituency there would need to be a 17% swing.

The Labour and Green votes were well down suggesting that, in this one seat at least, maybe the tactical voting message is landing with the left leaning voters at least.

There was quite a strong reform vote which might have been part of the reason for the lower labour vote, but certainly also hurts the local Tory

I also wonder if winning helps the Tories and harms the Lib Dem’s anyway. Being 9 votes away is a great selling point to activists and voters. I seem to recall the last time the Lib Dem’s took Torbay from the Tories it was by 12 votes. This will certainly motivate those committed on both sides.

There will be a bar chart appearing before long, I can feel it!

No they won't.  That is all anorak-speak of no interest to anyone except us.

They will say 'Tory beats the LDs to control the council'.

[WestCountryRadical]

SOPN

Steve Darling (LD)
Kevin Foster (Con)
Paul Moor (Workers)
Gordon Scott (Ref)
Charlie West (Grn)
Chris Wongsosaputro (Lab)

[cogload]

Ed Davey here today, on a boat.

[batman]

could this be the constituency with the lowest Workers' Party score in the country? It's likely to be one of Labour's lowest also

[carlton43]

Jun 11, 2024 15:40:47 GMT cogload said:

Ed Davey here today, on a boat.

On the 'Davey McDavey McLocker Boatface'  Battle boat!

[john07]

Jun 11, 2024 15:40:47 GMT cogload said:

Ed Davey here today, on a boat.

Has it sunk yet? Cue dramatic rescue for the benefit of the cameras.

He just needs to keep out of his namesake Jones's locker.

[noorderling]

Jun 11, 2024 15:57:59 GMT john07 said:

Jun 11, 2024 15:40:47 GMT cogload said:

Ed Davey here today, on a boat.

Has it sunk yet? Cue dramatic rescue for the benefit of the cameras.

He just needs to keep out of his namesake Jones's locker.

This is the Lib Dem target number 79.

[noorderling]

Jun 11, 2024 16:21:40 GMT noorderling said:

Jun 11, 2024 15:57:59 GMT john07 said:

Has it sunk yet? Cue dramatic rescue for the benefit of the cameras.

He just needs to keep out of his namesake Jones's locker.

This is 79th on the Lib Dem target list.

[steve]

Jun 11, 2024 16:21:40 GMT noorderling said:

Jun 11, 2024 15:57:59 GMT john07 said:

Has it sunk yet? Cue dramatic rescue for the benefit of the cameras.

He just needs to keep out of his namesake Jones's locker.

This is the Lib Dem target number 79.

Part of the Torbay council area is in South Devon which is a higher placed target so I'd imagine that's a big factor in his presence.

[iainbhx]

Jun 11, 2024 19:09:35 GMT steve said:

Jun 11, 2024 16:21:40 GMT noorderling said:

This is the Lib Dem target number 79.

Part of the Torbay council area is in South Devon which is a higher placed target so I'd imagine that's a big factor in his presence.

The two Brixham wards and Churston, not exactly known for their LibDem support.

I'm actually on holiday here are that moment and spent the day in Torcross.

[graham]

Jun 7, 2024 11:08:27 GMT johnt64 said:

Jun 7, 2024 10:38:44 GMT carlton43 said:

But it is always only the headline that matters.  They won it.  Period.  Only anoraks are interested in the scores on the doors.

That may be true. But that is not what the headlines will say. They will say

There was a 19% swing from the Tories to the Liberal Democrat’s, to take the parliamentary constituency there would need to be a 17% swing.

The Labour and Green votes were well down suggesting that, in this one seat at least, maybe the tactical voting message is landing with the left leaning voters at least.

There was quite a strong reform vote which might have been part of the reason for the lower labour vote, but certainly also hurts the local Tory

I also wonder if winning helps the Tories and harms the Lib Dem’s anyway. Being 9 votes away is a great selling point to activists and voters. I seem to recall the last time the Lib Dem’s took Torbay from the Tories it was by 12 votes. This will certainly motivate those committed on both sides.

There will be a bar chart appearing before long, I can feel it!

On what basis was the Labour vote well down? They last contested the ward in 2011!

[heslingtonian]

Jun 11, 2024 19:55:54 GMT iainbhx said:

Jun 11, 2024 19:09:35 GMT steve said:

Part of the Torbay council area is in South Devon which is a higher placed target so I'd imagine that's a big factor in his presence.

The two Brixham wards and Churston, not exactly known for their LibDem support.

I'm actually on holiday here are that moment and spent the day in Torcross.

Churston is of course most famous for being one of the locations of the murders in Agatha Christie's classic "The ABC Murders"