Wokingham

[stb12]

Wokingham

[nobodyimportant]

My estimate at the vote share within this constituency at the locals using top vote method: (figures in brackets afterwards are percentage in the wards entirely within the constituency)
LD 45% (46.6%)
Con 34% (32.9%)
Lab 14% (13.6%)
Green 5.7% (6.4%)
TUSC 0.4% (0.5%)

Note: Green and TUSC did not stand in all wards, and only stood the one candidate where they did. Neither stood in the wards that are partially in the constituency, which is why they get figures to 1dp rather than to the nearest whole number

[connor]

Conservative Hold

John Redwood MP (Conservative)

Been A Tory seat since...well, it's inception. They've resisted wipeouts before and they'll resist this one. Redwood will survive for another term in Parliament.

[steve]

May 22, 2024 19:28:25 GMT connor said:

Conservative Hold

John Redwood MP (Conservative)

Been A Tory seat since...well, it's inception. They've resisted wipeouts before and they'll resist this one. Redwood will survive for another term in Parliament.

It seems Redwood didn't share your confidence as he's announced his retirement.

[right]

Retirement statement

order-order.com/2024/05/24/sir-john-redwood-standing-down/

[Deleted]

May 22, 2024 19:28:25 GMT connor said:

Conservative Hold

John Redwood MP (Conservative)

Been A Tory seat since...well, it's inception. They've resisted wipeouts before and they'll resist this one. Redwood will survive for another term in Parliament.

The Conservatives start on less than 50% of the vote here and the Lib Dems only need a 6% swing to take it. Not sure the Tories will resist this 'wipeout'. 

[batman]

On the new boundaries it will take quite a bit bigger swing for the Lib Dems to unseat the Tories. Not straightforward by any means. I will have to edit my profile of the constituency.

[carlton43]

May 24, 2024 7:35:55 GMT steve said:

May 22, 2024 19:28:25 GMT connor said:

Conservative Hold

John Redwood MP (Conservative)

Been A Tory seat since...well, it's inception. They've resisted wipeouts before and they'll resist this one. Redwood will survive for another term in Parliament.

It seems Redwood didn't share your confidence as he's announced his retirement.

He is 72 and I did not expect him to want to be an opposition backbencher at that age.

[steve]

May 24, 2024 10:32:35 GMT carlton43 said:

May 24, 2024 7:35:55 GMT steve said:

It seems Redwood didn't share your confidence as he's announced his retirement.

He is 72 and I did not expect him to want to be an opposition backbencher at that age.

Then perhaps he should have had the courtesy to give his local party more time to get a new candidate in place if he always planned to retire.

[johnloony]

May 24, 2024 12:09:17 GMT steve said:

May 24, 2024 10:32:35 GMT carlton43 said:

He is 72 and I did not expect him to want to be an opposition backbencher at that age.

Then perhaps he should have had the courtesy to give his local party more time to get a new candidate in place if he always planned to retire.

Then perhaps the prime minister should have had the courtesy to give everybody more time to prepare for the general election in October rather than springing it on us in July.

[Deleted]

May 24, 2024 8:38:48 GMT batman said:

On the new boundaries it will take quite a bit bigger swing for the Lib Dems to unseat the Tories. Not straightforward by any means. I will have to edit my profile of the constituency.

Very helpful changes here for the Tories. 

[Wisconsin]

Does Redwood retiring increase or decrease the Tory vote?

[steve]

May 24, 2024 12:13:08 GMT johnloony said:

May 24, 2024 12:09:17 GMT steve said:

Then perhaps he should have had the courtesy to give his local party more time to get a new candidate in place if he always planned to retire.

Then perhaps the prime minister should have had the courtesy to give everybody more time to prepare for the general election in October rather than springing it on us in July.

If he wasn't planning to stand again he didn't need to wait for the PM's decision re the GE. Plenty of other MPs have given their constiturncy parties plenty of notice about their future plans to enable them to get their successors in place.

[batman]

May 24, 2024 12:21:47 GMT Wisconsin said:

Does Redwood retiring increase or decrease the Tory vote?

I'd say it doesn't do the Tories any good but it won't make all that much difference one way or the other

[carlton43]

May 24, 2024 12:09:17 GMT steve said:

May 24, 2024 10:32:35 GMT carlton43 said:

He is 72 and I did not expect him to want to be an opposition backbencher at that age.

Then perhaps he should have had the courtesy to give his local party more time to get a new candidate in place if he always planned to retire.

Since when do you get to be the arbiter of the conduct of MPs?  Mind your own business!  Perhaps, like others, he was wrong-footed by a sudden and probably not very sensible lurch to a GE?  Many would have had a round of garden parties and dinner party gatherings to give thanks and make their farewells whilst introducing the new candidate, from mid to late summer.  All that was cut away by grapeshot from their own side on Wednesday.

[steve]

May 24, 2024 12:41:46 GMT carlton43 said:

May 24, 2024 12:09:17 GMT steve said:

Then perhaps he should have had the courtesy to give his local party more time to get a new candidate in place if he always planned to retire.

Since when do you get to be the arbiter of the conduct of MPs?  Mind your own business!  Perhaps, like others, he was wrong-footed by a sudden and probably not very sensible lurch to a GE?  Many would have had a round of garden parties and dinner party gatherings to give thanks and make their farewells whilst introducing the new candidate, from mid to late summer.  All that was cut away by grapeshot from their own side on Wednesday.

I'll give you marks for your sheer arrogance. I have as much right to express my opinion as anyone. It's called free speech.

[carlton43]

May 24, 2024 12:51:21 GMT steve said:

May 24, 2024 12:41:46 GMT carlton43 said:

Since when do you get to be the arbiter of the conduct of MPs?  Mind your own business!  Perhaps, like others, he was wrong-footed by a sudden and probably not very sensible lurch to a GE?  Many would have had a round of garden parties and dinner party gatherings to give thanks and make their farewells whilst introducing the new candidate, from mid to late summer.  All that was cut away by grapeshot from their own side on Wednesday.

I'll give you marks for your sheer arrogance. I have as much right to express my opinion as anyone. It's called free speech.

"... he should have had the courtesy to give his local party more time to get a new candidate in place ..."

And you have the confounded effrontery to accuse me of arrogance!

He was sandbagged by a witless announcement and had no chance to do any such thing.  

[steve]

May 24, 2024 13:03:30 GMT carlton43 said:

May 24, 2024 12:51:21 GMT steve said:

I'll give you marks for your sheer arrogance. I have as much right to express my opinion as anyone. It's called free speech.

"... he should have had the courtesy to give his local party more time to get a new candidate in place ..."

And you have the confounded effrontery to accuse me of arrogance!

He was sandbagged by a witless announcement and had no chance to do any such thing.  

What utter nonsense. He's had 4.5 years to notify his local party he wasn't planning to stand again.

[carlton43]

May 24, 2024 13:39:25 GMT steve said:

May 24, 2024 13:03:30 GMT carlton43 said:

"... he should have had the courtesy to give his local party more time to get a new candidate in place ..."

And you have the confounded effrontery to accuse me of arrogance!

He was sandbagged by a witless announcement and had no chance to do any such thing.  

What utter nonsense. He's had 4.5 years to notify his local party he wasn't planning to stand again.

I assume you are very young with that trite bombast of the young?

People have changes of heart and changes of mood, crises of confidence, loss of faith, imposed health issues, different family responsibilities all crowding in upon their life decisions.

You assume it it is all so simplistic, so mechanical and so politics based!  After 2019 he may well have expected to do at least one more GE; then was passed over yet again for lesser dross; then saw the May carnage; the Boris bluster and the Truss disaster. 

At times he might have wondered if he should resign as a point of principle or that his 'hour had come'?  He is of an age when bad health news can suddenly occur or a spouse insists on more attention.  Many things will affect his decision.  He is not a party apparatchik or placeman.  He has made his own decision to suit him and his nearest and dearest as should everyone.  He may well have warned his local party (or not)?  We don't know.  His party did not 'have the courtesy' to warn him of the early GE so I suggest you tone it down.

[John Chanin]

May 24, 2024 14:00:44 GMT carlton43 said:

May 24, 2024 13:39:25 GMT steve said:

What utter nonsense. He's had 4.5 years to notify his local party he wasn't planning to stand again.

I assume you are very young with that trite bombast of the young?

People have changes of heart and changes of mood, crises of confidence, loss of faith, imposed health issues, different family responsibilities all crowding in upon their life decisions.

You assume it it is all so simplistic, so mechanical and so politics based!  After 2019 he may well have expected to do at least one more GE; then was passed over yet again for lesser dross; then saw the May carnage; the Boris bluster and the Truss disaster. 

At times he might have wondered if he should resign as a point of principle or that his 'hour had come'?  He is of an age when bad health news can suddenly occur or a spouse insists on more attention.  Many things will affect his decision.  He is not a party apparatchik or placeman.  He has made his own decision to suit him and his nearest and dearest as should everyone.  He may well have warned his local party (or not)?  We don't know.  His party did not 'have the courtesy' to warn him of the early GE so I suggest you tone it down.

As possibly the most hyberbolic ranter on this site, telling someone to "tone it down" is a bit rich.