Woking

[Clark]

Lib Dems are 11/10 here - some forum member (can't remember who) was adamant they were gaining this seat but I'd be nervous about backing against the Tories in a seat like this.

[steve]

May 29, 2024 9:29:49 GMT Clark said:

Lib Dems are 11/10 here - some forum member (can't remember who) was adamant they were gaining this seat but I'd be nervous about backing against the Tories in a seat like this.

I'd imagine that the Conservatives will be struggling for workers here after seeing all of their cllrs wiped out here in each of the last three years. It can't be much fun knocking on doors in Woking if you're wearing a blue rosette given their record running both the council and the country. You can never completely write them off but apart from Guildford I would think that this is their most vulnerable seat in Surrey.

[bigfatron]

May 29, 2024 9:29:49 GMT Clark said:

Lib Dems are 11/10 here - some forum member (can't remember who) was adamant they were gaining this seat but I'd be nervous about backing against the Tories in a seat like this.

The Tories bankrupted the local council in some style, and the local residents are now seeing the impact in their bills and (lack of) services; thus there are local factors at play in Woking that increase the chance of a Lib Dem win beyond what would appear reasonable based solely on 2019 results and the current national situation.
I agree that it is definitely not in the bag though...

[carolus]

May 29, 2024 10:34:24 GMT steve said:

May 29, 2024 9:29:49 GMT Clark said:

Lib Dems are 11/10 here - some forum member (can't remember who) was adamant they were gaining this seat but I'd be nervous about backing against the Tories in a seat like this.

I'd imagine that the Conservatives will be struggling for workers here after seeing all of their cllrs wiped out here in each of the last three years. It can't be much fun knocking on doors in Woking if you're wearing a blue rosette given their record running both the council and the country. You can never completely write them off but apart from Guildford I would think that this is their most vulnerable seat in Surrey.

Esher, surely?

[batman]

The LDs didn't do as well as they'd hoped in the Elmbridge council elections this year, but I still think it is a real stretch for the Tories to save Esher & Walton. With neighbouring K&S & Twickenham both totally safe for the LDs surely they will have the ground game to take the seat.

[steve]

May 29, 2024 11:57:47 GMT carolus said:

May 29, 2024 10:34:24 GMT steve said:

I'd imagine that the Conservatives will be struggling for workers here after seeing all of their cllrs wiped out here in each of the last three years. It can't be much fun knocking on doors in Woking if you're wearing a blue rosette given their record running both the council and the country. You can never completely write them off but apart from Guildford I would think that this is their most vulnerable seat in Surrey.

Esher, surely?

I think they probably will take Esher but I just fancy their chances in Woking a little more. Their ability to gain a seat in the constituency's solitary Labour stronghold this year strengthened my conviction.

And as someone once said my name's not Shirley! 🙂

[john07]

Apr 2, 2024 14:52:53 GMT stb12 said:

Apr 2, 2024 14:02:06 GMT batman said:

There's a qualitative difference here. In 2019, there was literally nothing except a hunch to explain the Liberal Democrats pouring resources into certain seats. In 2024, the opinion polls are strong evidence that Labour can indeed win, at least in these circumstances, in various seats that would normally not be winnable at all. On the basis of opinion polls, Labour would have some moral justification for campaigning hard in, for example, Woking or Epsom & Ewell, even though there are obviously seats which might be a better bet for various reasons. Whereas in 2019 the Lib Dems tried to argue that only they or the Tories could win Kensington, which was a lie. If however Labour were to campaign hard in Winchester or Harrogate, to give two further examples, that would be ridiculous & not justified by any polls, or even reasonable hunches.

I suppose my line of argument is mainly around this idea, why does a party need that kind of justification? Going in hard for a certain seat may be a total and embarrassing waste of time, money and resources but they’re still entitled to do it if they want. There might be a common interest in getting rid of the Tories after all these years but without Labour and the Lib Dems having a formal pact surely they can’t expect anything from each other as such

Tactical voting comes from the electorate regardless of what the parties might say or do. The electorate can be quite savvy regarding tactical votes as demonstrated by the Tory wipe-out in Scotland last century in Scotland. This favoured Labour, the Lib Dems, and the SNP as appropriate. The Tory recovery in Scotland came when new tactical voting patterns emerged. This included anti-Lib Dem votes in 2015, anti-SNP voting in Edinburgh West and South, and some anti-Labour voting.

[k9]

A lot of scrolling but found the list.

Six candidates:

Lib Dem, Lab, Green, Con and Heritage - Woking
Reform - Surrey Heath

www.woking.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/council-and-democracy/elections/Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20and%20Notice%20of%20Poll.pdf

[londonseal80]

May 29, 2024 15:36:56 GMT steve said:

May 29, 2024 11:57:47 GMT carolus said:

Esher, surely?

I think they probably will take Esher but I just fancy their chances in Woking a little more. Their ability to gain a seat in the constituency's solitary Labour stronghold this year strengthened my conviction.

And as someone once said my name's not Shirley! 🙂

I think they will win both Woking and Esther seats but I feel this one will have a higher majority.

[YL]

Lib Dems claiming victory apparently.