stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,379 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:18:29 GMT
Reading West and Mid Berkshire
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Post by loderingo on Jun 7, 2024 21:55:59 GMT
Con - Ross Mackinnon - lives in constituency
Lab - Olivia Bailey - lives in constituency
LD - Helen Belcher - lives in Wiltshire
Reform - Kathrin Bosley - lives in Reading C
Green - Carolyn Culver - lives in Oxfordshire
Indie - Adrian Abbs -lives in Newbury
Indie - Adie Peppiatt - lives in constituency
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 3:57:04 GMT
Con - Ross Mackinnon - lives in constituency Lab - Olivia Bailey - lives in constituency LD - Helen Belcher - lives in Wiltshire Reform - Kathrin Bosley - lives in Reading C Green - Carolyn Culver - lives in Oxfordshire Indie - Adrian Abbs -lives in Newbury Indie - Adie Peppiatt - lives in constituency Probably a Tory hold on split opposition, as Labour don't have a good enough candidate to beat the Tory strength in the villages and the Liberal strength (in Thatcham + Theale particularly) will get them a solid second place, close on a good night. A local candidate for the Liberals would have really helped them here, Wilts is too far away. The Green position will be interesting here - a potential future target if Carolyne Culver keeps standing. She is a very popular cllr for the Downs villages and the Greens have some fertile territory along the Kennet Valley too. |
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Post by arnieg on Jun 11, 2024 6:57:50 GMT
Con - Ross Mackinnon - lives in constituency Lab - Olivia Bailey - lives in constituency LD - Helen Belcher - lives in Wiltshire Reform - Kathrin Bosley - lives in Reading C Green - Carolyn Culver - lives in Oxfordshire Indie - Adrian Abbs -lives in Newbury Indie - Adie Peppiatt - lives in constituency A local candidate for the Liberals would have really helped them here, Wilts is too far away. Helen previously lived in Wokingham. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 13:17:16 GMT
A local candidate for the Liberals would have really helped them here, Wilts is too far away. Helen previously lived in Wokingham. Wokingham is a bit too far away for a proper local connection. You need someone from Theale/Aldermaston/one of the other Kennet Valley villages (even Thatcham would have probably been fine). |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 11, 2024 18:11:03 GMT
Con - Ross Mackinnon - lives in constituency Lab - Olivia Bailey - lives in constituency LD - Helen Belcher - lives in Wiltshire Reform - Kathrin Bosley - lives in Reading C Green - Carolyn Culver - lives in Oxfordshire Indie - Adrian Abbs -lives in Newbury Indie - Adie Peppiatt - lives in constituency Probably a Tory hold on split opposition, as Labour don't have a good enough candidate to beat the Tory strength in the villages and the Liberal strength (in Thatcham + Theale particularly) will get them a solid second place, close on a good night. A local candidate for the Liberals would have really helped them here, Wilts is too far away. The Green position will be interesting here - a potential future target if Carolyne Culver keeps standing. She is a very popular cllr for the Downs villages and the Greens have some fertile territory along the Kennet Valley too. Thatcham is in Newbury constituency. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 18:21:35 GMT
Probably a Tory hold on split opposition, as Labour don't have a good enough candidate to beat the Tory strength in the villages and the Liberal strength (in Thatcham + Theale particularly) will get them a solid second place, close on a good night. A local candidate for the Liberals would have really helped them here, Wilts is too far away. The Green position will be interesting here - a potential future target if Carolyne Culver keeps standing. She is a very popular cllr for the Downs villages and the Greens have some fertile territory along the Kennet Valley too. Thatcham is in Newbury constituency. Ah sorry, I meant in general along that strip of the Kennet Valley. Should probably have phrased it between Thatcham and Theale. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 11, 2024 18:34:54 GMT
'That strip of the Kennet Valley' is usually pretty solidly Tory. At the locals last year Bradfield was 57% Tory and Aldermaston 51%.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 12, 2024 1:50:11 GMT
'That strip of the Kennet Valley' is usually pretty solidly Tory. At the locals last year Bradfield was 57% Tory and Aldermaston 51%. Theale/Burghfield/Mortimer? |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 12, 2024 7:37:11 GMT
Burghfield and Mortimer are out the other side of Theale.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 13, 2024 3:12:39 GMT
Burghfield and Mortimer are out the other side of Theale. But I'd say they fit the definition of Kennet Valley - you may disagree. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 13, 2024 11:26:40 GMT
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,907
Member is Online
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Post by YL on Jul 13, 2024 12:41:19 GMT
Some of the "Mid Berkshire" component of this constituency might be quite surprised to have a Labour MP. |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 13, 2024 12:41:23 GMT
Looking at the general area on Boundary Assistant, I didn't realise until now just how much of the electorate here is in the Reading portion of this seat (~30% when just including Reading Borough Council wards, >50% when also including all other wards that were previously in Reading West or even just the three West Berks wards fully contiguous with bits of Reading proper).
In light of this, I'm now somewhat less surprised that this ended up being a LAB gain (though I would have probably still predicted a CON hold had I been aware prior to the GE), however even then this was a good result for them.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
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Post by jamie on Jul 13, 2024 13:22:04 GMT
Looking at the general area on Boundary Assistant, I didn't realise until now just how much of the electorate here is in the Reading portion of this seat (~30% when just including Reading Borough Council wards, <50% when also including all other wards that were previously in Reading West or even just the three West Berks wards fully contiguous with bits of Reading proper). In light of this, I'm now somewhat less surprised that this ended up being a LAB gain (though I would have probably still predicted a CON hold had I been aware prior to the GE), however even then this was a good result for them. Labour seem very poorly organised in West Berkshire and achieved the grand total of one split ward last year so I think some scepticism was warranted, so a 12% increase is a very impressive result for Labour. |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Jul 13, 2024 20:50:46 GMT
I gather Labour flooded this with activists very late, presumably once someone worked out Earley & Woodley was ok.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 13, 2024 20:58:58 GMT
Indeed. It was one of the stretch targets added in the last fortnight.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 13, 2024 21:35:26 GMT
Indeed. It was one of the stretch targets added in the last fortnight. Is there a list of those somewhere? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2024 21:43:50 GMT
Looking at the general area on Boundary Assistant, I didn't realise until now just how much of the electorate here is in the Reading portion of this seat (~30% when just including Reading Borough Council wards, <50% when also including all other wards that were previously in Reading West or even just the three West Berks wards fully contiguous with bits of Reading proper). In light of this, I'm now somewhat less surprised that this ended up being a LAB gain (though I would have probably still predicted a CON hold had I been aware prior to the GE), however even then this was a good result for them. However Labour don't really do very well in the reading portion of this seat. Occasionally win Kentwood and usually win Norcot solidly but unspectacularly, but are a very distant third in Tilehurst |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 13, 2024 21:59:09 GMT
However Labour don't really do very well in the reading portion of this seat. Occasionally win Kentwood and usually win Norcot solidly but unspectacularly, but are a very distant third in Tilehurst I'm aware of that, all I had meant was that it would presumably still be significantly better for them than the West Berks portion of the seat. |
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