Ports
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Post by Ports on Jun 11, 2024 7:24:03 GMT
www.rbwm.gov.uk/media/3432/download/No Reform candidate here, but: Con: Tania Mathias LD: Joshua Reynolds Lab: Jo Smith Green: Andrew Cooney SDP: Tim Burt Ind: Qazi Yasir Irshad Ind: George Wright Strong chance of a LD gain here. Born and bred Maidenhead man as the Lib Dem candidate, the Tory candidate is suitable, but name recognition is important in some more rural parts of the seat. With local knowledge (the seat where my family still live) I would agree with what you said. The Lib Dems have had the best local presence - though it's a low bar - and it doesn't seem like the Conservatives have raised their game. Unsurprisingly the Lib Dems are trying to make it clear they are the tactical choice, but they do need to drive that home perhaps a bit more. The memory of the last Conservative administration on RBWM still stings a bit in Maidenhead town. It's obviously a steep climb for one election, but like you I don't believe the lack of a Reform candidate will put it out of play for the LDs. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 13:22:50 GMT
Strong chance of a LD gain here. Born and bred Maidenhead man as the Lib Dem candidate, the Tory candidate is suitable, but name recognition is important in some more rural parts of the seat. With local knowledge (the seat where my family still live) I would agree with what you said. The Lib Dems have had the best local presence - though it's a low bar - and it doesn't seem like the Conservatives have raised their game. Unsurprisingly the Lib Dems are trying to make it clear they are the tactical choice, but they do need to drive that home perhaps a bit more. The memory of the last Conservative administration on RBWM still stings a bit in Maidenhead town. It's obviously a steep climb for one election, but like you I don't believe the lack of a Reform candidate will put it out of play for the LDs. Strongly agreed, especially because you highlighted the state of Maidenhead town centre. It's an absolute shadow of what it was - especially the Nicholsons Centre. |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jun 17, 2024 10:21:50 GMT
Anyone know what Qazi Irshad's platform is here? Something Gaza related? No, it doesn't seem like it. He's just one of those business-type independents you might see at the tail end of a London Mayoral election result. |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jun 25, 2024 19:26:19 GMT
Essentially Tania Mathias' campaign here is pitching herself as the natural successor to Theresa May as a constituency MP, aided by genuine though somewhat limited local links. That might be a good idea, though she cannot out-local the Lib Dem candidate as previously mentioned. Said Lib Dem is fighting extremely hard, and the quantity of literature sent out is on a par with similar Lib Dem target seats (the quality perhaps less so, the ones I've seen are a bit inane and I could probably write a better one). The opposite of the Tories who I know have sent out fewer leaflets but probably higher quality (though people might be understandably unamenable of course).
Sadly I don't have any 'internal' knowledge, but with all the local knowledge I have picked up, I expect a reasonably close race. The safer bet and the one I would probably go for is a close Tory hold - maybe about 5% here too? But nothing would surprise me with all the reasons mentioned previously in the thread.
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Post by norflondon on Jun 26, 2024 13:09:09 GMT
Reform UK absence means Con hold, just.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 26, 2024 13:22:48 GMT
Reform UK absence means Con hold, just. Or LibDem? |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 26, 2024 13:59:35 GMT
We would have to see large amounts of tactical voting Lab>LD, GRN >LD but yes moderately likely a LD gain, it's probably around 60%/40% Con/LD
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 3, 2024 16:12:25 GMT
Well I don't believe YouGov's result of 56 LD 28 Con... but I still believe it'll be a pretty tight two horse race here and everything about the campaign suggested it. Based on what I know has happened locally, I'll stick with my prediction from before.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 3, 2024 17:19:04 GMT
Well I don't believe YouGov's result of 56 LD 28 Con... but I still believe it'll be a pretty tight two horse race here and everything about the campaign suggested it. Based on what I know has happened locally, I'll stick with my prediction from before. I believe the Lib Dems have given more resources to this one in the past week so it must be competitive. |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 3, 2024 17:20:02 GMT
Well I don't believe YouGov's result of 56 LD 28 Con... but I still believe it'll be a pretty tight two horse race here and everything about the campaign suggested it. Based on what I know has happened locally, I'll stick with my prediction from before. I believe the Lib Dems have given more resources to this one in the past week so it must be competitive. That sounds like what I heard too - thank you for the corroboration! |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jul 4, 2024 9:03:57 GMT
I have switched my vote here from Tory hold to LD gain.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 9:31:06 GMT
I have switched my vote here from Tory hold to LD gain. Any particular reason? I believe they've received additional support this week so it's clearly competitive. |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jul 4, 2024 9:37:45 GMT
I have switched my vote here from Tory hold to LD gain. Any particular reason? I believe they've received additional support this week so it's clearly competitive. Because of the extra support. I would imagine the LD agent is pretty good at maths as well - they wouldn't have called in the extra support if the numbers didn't look right. We'll see. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 5:39:30 GMT
Lib Dems won
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 5, 2024 7:16:27 GMT
Fantastic result - it seemed as if it was going to happen in the last few days and a decent margin too.
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iain
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Post by iain on Jul 7, 2024 0:01:20 GMT
I think this result (among a few others) should serve as a sobering reminder to certain right wingers who think it could be a relatively smooth result back to power.
No Reform on the ballot, but a straight 20% swing to the Lib Dems. Voters did what they had to do to kick the Tories out, and pretending that the Tory and Reform votes can simply be added together is unlikely to prove fruitful.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 7, 2024 3:31:21 GMT
I think this result (among a few others) should serve as a sobering reminder to certain right wingers who think it could be a relatively smooth result back to power. No Reform on the ballot, but a straight 20% swing to the Lib Dems. Voters did what they had to do to kick the Tories out, and pretending that the Tory and Reform votes can simply be added together is unlikely to prove fruitful. Some seats may be easily recoverable but in others the new MP will get dug in and prove difficult to shift as we've witnesses in North Shropshire. Although Labour's majority is built on shallow foundations the Conservatives won't find it easy to turn things around. Labour had to wait 23 years for another majority after Oct 1974. The Conservatives also 23 years after 1992. And finally Labour 19 years after 2005. Recovery after losing power is not a quick process. |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jul 7, 2024 5:58:54 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 6:02:30 GMT
What a result! The Tories lost here because it's now just plain old Maidenhead, rather than Theresa Maydenhead. I would like a concert here for Iron Maidenhead.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jul 7, 2024 7:37:13 GMT
It is my task to learn all the many new MPs but this one’s name will be very easy to remember.
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