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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 12:57:54 GMT
It's going to be an uphill struggle for the Libs to gain here with the unusually wise choice of Conservative candidate (born and bred South Oxon and crucially not remotely a posh incomer), but it is possible. Freddie Van Mierlo is a good choice to energize voters into turning out for the LDs, and the LD/Green district administration is reasonably popular. They'll have to cover every fallen leaf in South Oxon to make sure the villages don't fall into the usual pattern of "I vote Tory because I always have done" - especially given the Tory candidate Caroline Brown lives in Britwell Salome near Watlington and Wallingford. Won't take long though, as very few fallen leaves in June. Pedantry, but fair nonetheless |
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Post by swindonlad on Jun 12, 2024 17:11:37 GMT
Someone will have to call up Michael Heseltine if this falls. He's still active and does the odd interview with the BBC. I'm not sure Heseltine would get on with the current Tory party tbh. He's a non affiliated Life Peer, so presumably not a member of the Tories any more. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 12, 2024 18:26:42 GMT
I'm not sure Heseltine would get on with the current Tory party tbh. He's a non affiliated Life Peer, so presumably not a member of the Tories any more. When Heseltine appears on the TV for virtual interviews from his home, it states he is in Northamptonshire not Oxfordshire so I'd guess he lives in South Northamptonshire constituency not that he's eligible to vote being a Peer. His wife is still alive so presumably she votes. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 12, 2024 19:26:41 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2024 19:29:12 GMT
Not a fan of Johnson at all. I also think if Farage became Tory leader, then David Cameron would become a cross bencher. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 12, 2024 21:12:56 GMT
Someone will have to call up Michael Heseltine if this falls. He's still active and does the odd interview with the BBC. I'm not sure Heseltine would get on with the current Tory party tbh. Didn't he vote for the Lib Dems at the last GE over Brexit? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 12, 2024 21:18:01 GMT
I'm not sure Heseltine would get on with the current Tory party tbh. Didn't he vote for the Lib Dems at the last GE over Brexit? Peers can’t vote at GE. I think he said he was voting LD in the 2019 Euros though. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 13, 2024 1:54:56 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 13, 2024 1:55:22 GMT
I'm not sure Heseltine would get on with the current Tory party tbh. He's a non affiliated Life Peer, so presumably not a member of the Tories any more. Demonstrates my point very well then! Thank you |
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Post by Strontium Dog on Jun 13, 2024 2:18:59 GMT
I'm not sure Heseltine would get on with the current Tory party tbh. He's a non affiliated Life Peer, so presumably not a member of the Tories any more. As of last year, he was still a member of the Conservative party. |
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 13:51:36 GMT
He's a non affiliated Life Peer, so presumably not a member of the Tories any more. As of last year, he was still a member of the Conservative party. According to the UK Parliament website he's been unaffiliated since 21 May 2019. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 13, 2024 14:00:54 GMT
As of last year, he was still a member of the Conservative party. According to the UK Parliament website he's been unaffiliated since 21 May 2019. An unaffiliated peer does not nessearaly mean he isn’t a party member. |
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 14:08:27 GMT
According to the UK Parliament website he's been unaffiliated since 21 May 2019. An unaffiliated peer does not nessearaly mean he isn’t a party member. No, but it would be odd if someone who actively campaigned for people to vote in opposition to his own party was allowed to remain a member of that party, but then I don't know the internal workings of the Conservative party. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 13, 2024 14:24:23 GMT
An unaffiliated peer does not nessearaly mean he isn’t a party member. No, but it would be odd if someone who actively campaigned for people to vote in opposition to his own party was allowed to remain a member of that party, but then I don't know the internal workings of the Conservative party. True, but Strontium Dog seems to think he was (still) a member last year, so I'd imagine he still is and is making a choice to sit as a non-affiliated peer. He's hardly active - he made his maiden speech in 2011 and has only made 3 speeches and asked 1 question since the last general so I wouldn't imagine he's bothered nor are the Conservative whips. Ken Clark (and others) sat as independent MPs in 2019 after loosing the whip, I'll bet money he and others remained a paid up member throughout the process however. |
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Post by Strontium Dog on Jun 13, 2024 15:49:26 GMT
As of last year, he was still a member of the Conservative party. According to the UK Parliament website he's been unaffiliated since 21 May 2019. Correct, since he had the whip suspended. According to him, he was still a party member last year. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 6:03:26 GMT
LDEM 43%
CON 42%
LAB 12%
OTH 2%
OTH 1%
This seat's proximity to London and astronomical house prices means the mini budget debacle will hurt the Tories more here than elsewhere. The Lib Dem is decent.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 3, 2024 23:53:00 GMT
LDEM 43% CON 42% LAB 12% OTH 2% OTH 1% This seat's proximity to London and astronomical house prices means the mini budget debacle will hurt the Tories more here than elsewhere. The Lib Dem is decent. Make no mistake, a lot of the rural Oxon section is still very typical agricultural village territory and relying on the assumption that they vote like the London commuter belt would be stupid. However, I think your prediction is broadly right. |
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Jul 4, 2024 0:22:53 GMT
I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win by at least 5 percentage points, probably closer to 10.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 4, 2024 0:55:16 GMT
I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win by at least 5 percentage points, probably closer to 10. I don't think it's that clear cut. They'll probably eke out a win, but the Tories really are ingrained in a lot of the seat. |
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