steve
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Post by steve on Jul 7, 2024 3:47:31 GMT
I don't see why Hunt should be condemned for fighting a good campaign in what he knew was a marginal seat. This is the second time he has defied predictions to survive; the first was his initial election in 2005, when Virginia Bottomley bequeathed him a very small majority but he increased it very handily indeed. This is easily his smallest majority despite basically favourable boundary changes. But the Tories held Farnham & Bordon too; things could have been even worse, and I am surprised by these two particular Tory holds. I think these two seats plus perhaps Romsey & Southampton N were the Lib Dems only misses among their targets, although there were a few they came close in that weren't on the radar like East Hampshire, North Dorset and to a lesser degree South Shropshire. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jul 7, 2024 4:01:41 GMT
No there are some others, Hinckley and Bosworth comes to mind for starters. But not many
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 4:12:11 GMT
South West Surrey / Godalming & Ash - 2001 / 2024
CON 45.3 / 42.6
LD 42.6 / 41
LAB 8.7 / 5
UKIP/RFM 2.4 / 8.6
Majority 861 / 891
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 7, 2024 6:21:12 GMT
One factor which may save Hunt is that unlike certain other MP's (and cabinet ministers) he knows how to campaign. Because he has had to. Will stick by this. I get very few right so I will chalk this one up. A couple of conversations a week or so out pricked my ears up that Hunt may hold on because people actually liked him and that he's a decent constituency MP. Anyway, well done JH. www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001249 |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 7, 2024 6:58:37 GMT
The giveaway that he would survive was that Graun article where they clearly wanted to write a piece about everyone hating him and found to their horror that his constituents liked him. Too many in the press would rather write up MPs according to their own political prejudices and not do the leg-work to go and see what it's like on the ground. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 7, 2024 7:01:03 GMT
He's also (as even the Graun admitted) more more liked than some people's prejudices allow them to admit. Yes, a personable chap with a good rep locally who abandoned the national campaign and completely commited himself and his team to staying in. And who can blame him. I would argue that he deserved to be able to do that. His work as chancellor, steadying the ship and clearing away the Truss mayhem, probably contributed to the survival of another dozen MPs. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 7, 2024 8:04:28 GMT
No there are some others, Hinckley and Bosworth comes to mind for starters. But not many H & B was never really a target in the sense the others were. It was the best opportunity in my part of the world but at best a slim one. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 7, 2024 10:17:59 GMT
Yes, a personable chap with a good rep locally who abandoned the national campaign and completely commited himself and his team to staying in. And who can blame him. I would argue that he deserved to be able to do that. His work as chancellor, steadying the ship and clearing away the Truss mayhem, probably contributed to the survival of another dozen MPs. Another interesting counterfactual is what if Truss hadn't sacked Kwarteng before she stepped down or chosen someone else as Chancellor. I'm not sure Hunt would have even stood again. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 10:20:32 GMT
Is this the only seat in the land where the Tory candidate's school might likely have saved him? Hunt went to Charterhouse, which I think is in the constituency.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 7, 2024 10:27:05 GMT
Is this the only seat in the land where the Tory candidate's school might likely have saved him? Hunt went to Charterhouse, which I think is in the constituency. You've tried pushing this line earlier. It is totally irrelevant. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 10:28:35 GMT
Is this the only seat in the land where the Tory candidate's school might likely have saved him? Hunt went to Charterhouse, which I think is in the constituency. You've tried pushing this line earlier. It is totally irrelevant. Why? It's easier Hunting for votes if you are Godalming & Ash through and through. This is a fairly elitist constituency (look at the Remain vote) where his background probably helped. Some CCHQ Spad apparatchik plant with next to nothing in terms of local ties (or local ties, if you get my meaning) would have lost. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 7, 2024 10:31:49 GMT
I think the fact he’s been the MP and a high profile one for 19 years might have a tad more to do with it than where he went to school.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 7, 2024 10:37:16 GMT
I think the fact he’s been the MP and a high profile one for 19 years might have a tad more to do with it than where he went to school. And the fact that he was a lot more acceptable to floating voters than 95% of his Conservative colleagues. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 7, 2024 10:40:13 GMT
You've tried pushing this line earlier. It is totally irrelevant. Why? It's easier Hunting for votes if you are Godalming & Ash through and through. This is a fairly elitist constituency (look at the Remain vote) where his background probably helped. Some CCHQ Spad apparatchik plant with next to nothing in terms of local ties (or local ties, if you get my meaning) would have lost. I'm going to let you into a secret. Local candidates who went to a local school sometimes win. And they sometimes lose. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 10:45:23 GMT
I think the fact he’s been the MP and a high profile one for 19 years might have a tad more to do with it than where he went to school. Fair enough. I personally would find it hard to vote for someone who didn't go to Oxford or Cambridge, LSE, UCL or Imperial, for example. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jul 7, 2024 12:18:46 GMT
I think the fact he’s been the MP and a high profile one for 19 years might have a tad more to do with it than where he went to school. Fair enough. I personally would find it hard to vote for someone who didn't go to Oxford or Cambridge, LSE, UCL or Imperial, for example. And you claim the voters of Godalming and Ash to be elitists? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 14:00:17 GMT
Fair enough. I personally would find it hard to vote for someone who didn't go to Oxford or Cambridge, LSE, UCL or Imperial, for example. And you claim the voters of Godalming and Ash to be elitists? It takes one to know one? |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jul 7, 2024 18:36:14 GMT
I went out of my way not to vote for a particular Cambridge-educated candidate in the 1983 general election. It's taken a few decades for me to be proved completely right about that. I warned the CLP he would betray his party, though he only finally did so 41 years later. He was known to be dodgy years before that though. Thankfully I had a vote in a different constituency in the 1983 election & used that instead. That candidate has never left the Labour Party (unlike me, of course)
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jul 8, 2024 3:47:32 GMT
No there are some others, Hinckley and Bosworth comes to mind for starters. But not many H & B was never really a target in the sense the others were. It was the best opportunity in my part of the world but at best a slim one. I don't think having 0 MPs out of 72 representing an East Midlands constituency is a good look for a nationwide party. Failing to crack any of the 27 seats left in the North East is a tad more forgivable. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 3:50:50 GMT
I went out of my way not to vote for a particular Cambridge-educated candidate in the 1983 general election. It's taken a few decades for me to be proved completely right about that. I warned the CLP he would betray his party, though he only finally did so 41 years later. He was known to be dodgy years before that though. Thankfully I had a vote in a different constituency in the 1983 election & used that instead. That candidate has never left the Labour Party (unlike me, of course) Yes. I will be annoyed if the Tory leadership election isn't a final battle Royale between Tom Tugendhat and Suella Braverman. On that note, I'll make a poll for that. |
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