Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2024 12:52:51 GMT
The Lib Dems have a clear ad-Wantage in this seat.
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 22, 2024 12:57:46 GMT
I suspect Palmer has been sent there to run a wrecking operation? Nick Palmer sees it as a 3 way contest. The Sutton Courtney by election this week was not very inspiring for LDs. The seats were only narrowly held with big drops in LD vote share to the Greens. Not clear evidence of momentum in what should be good territory for them in relation to Labour in such a rural ward.
Nick Palmer will no doubt be expelled for not campaigning in Swindon. How dare he suggest that votes might be won in Didcot & Wantage. |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 22, 2024 13:05:19 GMT
Nick Palmer sees it as a 3 way contest. The Sutton Courtney by election this week was not very inspiring for LDs. The seats were only narrowly held with big drops in LD vote share to the Greens. Not clear evidence of momentum in what should be good territory for them in relation to Labour in such a rural ward.
Nick Palmer will no doubt be expelled for not campaigning in Swindon. How dare he suggest that votes might be won in Didcot & Wantage. From what I hear expulsion isn’t the penalty for failing to assist sufficiently in a target seat and instead campaigning locally. They instead remove access to some campaign tools and indicate disfavour for any future aspirations (but Palmer would be past that, I think). It’s a tough business organising a national campaign and focus on majority (as opposed to landslide) seats is necessary. But members are volunteers with varied motivations and it’s wise to work with those motivations as far as possible. |
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Post by luckyllama on Jun 22, 2024 13:09:27 GMT
Nick Palmer sees it as a 3 way contest. The Sutton Courtney by election this week was not very inspiring for LDs. The seats were only narrowly held with big drops in LD vote share to the Greens. Not clear evidence of momentum in what should be good territory for them in relation to Labour in such a rural ward.
Nick Palmer will no doubt be expelled for not campaigning in Swindon. How dare he suggest that votes might be won in Didcot & Wantage. Whereas he ought to be expelled for pretending to represent people in Surrey whilst actually living in Oxfordshire? |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 22, 2024 13:28:56 GMT
Some MRP surveys have put Labour ahead so it is not reasonable to expect Labour to stand aside there. Palmer does not expect the Tories to win. It is a bit reminiscent of the by elections in Mid Beds and Shropshire North. Had the latter taken place 6 - 12 months later ,Labour would have fought the set very hard and could well have emerged as the main challenger given the party was in second place in 2019. Labour polled 27% in the former Wantage seat in 2017 and could reasonably expect to exceed that this year.
Have they? Genuine question. Survation's did, but for me YouGov are the most credible when it comes to MRPs, and they showed Labour on 16% with the Lib Dems winning by a mile. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2024 14:11:25 GMT
This is the kind of seat - with many voters unclear as to how to vote tactically - where it would be perfectly legitimate to deploy the 'Tory little helper' argument.With such voters it is a point that still has resonance - as does the raising of tuition fees.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 22, 2024 14:27:23 GMT
This is the kind of seat - with many voters unclear as to how to vote tactically - where it would be perfectly legitimate to deploy the 'Tory little helper' argument.With such voters it is a point that still has resonance - as does the raising of tuition fees. And in both 1997 and 2001, Robert Jackson (who ironically defected to Labour shortly before he retired) held on precisely because of this problem; the anti-Conservative vote was almost evenly divided between Labour and the Liberal Democrats (who were in 1997 fielding a former Conservative GLC councillor, Jenny Riley). |
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Max
Labour
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Post by Max on Jun 22, 2024 14:37:50 GMT
The Lib Dems have a clear ad-Wantage in this seat. When Robert Jackson defected to Labour in January 2005, I joked that his constituency was a contraction of Want(s a peer)age - but that never came to be! |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 22, 2024 14:42:10 GMT
This is the kind of seat - with many voters unclear as to how to vote tactically - where it would be perfectly legitimate to deploy the 'Tory little helper' argument.With such voters it is a point that still has resonance - as does the raising of tuition fees. How do you know this? |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 22, 2024 14:56:05 GMT
This is the kind of seat - with many voters unclear as to how to vote tactically - where it would be perfectly legitimate to deploy the 'Tory little helper' argument.With such voters it is a point that still has resonance - as does the raising of tuition fees. If someone is determining their vote on the basis of opposition to the introduction or raising of tuition fess then it won't be for the Labour Party. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2024 15:01:24 GMT
This is the kind of seat - with many voters unclear as to how to vote tactically - where it would be perfectly legitimate to deploy the 'Tory little helper' argument.With such voters it is a point that still has resonance - as does the raising of tuition fees. How do you know this? Davey had a tough time on Question Time under fire for tuition fees during the Coalition years. The 'Tory little helpers' jibe still crops up in discussions with others to the extent that not everyone views the LDs as a left of centre option - many see them as centre-right under the influence of the Orange Bookers. The party is less transfer friendly than was the case pre- 2010. I include myself there -having voted LD in both 2001 and 2005 when I found Charles Kennedy far more acceptable than Blair - but would not be inclined to do so again.Many in the past who would have moved between Labour and the LDs are now much more likely to switch to the Greens - which is how I will vote on July 4th despite being in a Tory/Labour marginal.
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Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Jun 22, 2024 15:58:40 GMT
This is the kind of seat - with many voters unclear as to how to vote tactically - where it would be perfectly legitimate to deploy the 'Tory little helper' argument.With such voters it is a point that still has resonance - as does the raising of tuition fees. Firstly, I think you overestimate the resonance the issue still has a decade on. Secondly, there is a risk - if not effectively targeted to left-leaning voters - that it reminds soft Conservatives of a Coalition government that most of them feel was a hell of a lot better than the current one, and pushes them towards the Lib Dems. The wiser approach for Labour here would be to essentially ignore the Lib Dems and say only Starmer or Sunak can be PM, show the most attractive graph they can etc. |
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Post by batman on Jun 22, 2024 16:19:16 GMT
The Lib Dems have a clear ad-Wantage in this seat. you have been warned against very bad puns, although very bad puns are a regular feature of this august forum. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 22, 2024 18:47:40 GMT
The Lib Dems have a clear ad-Wantage in this seat. you have been warned against very bad puns, although very bad puns are a regular feature of this august forum. Are you suggesting they should be punished? |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 22, 2024 19:10:02 GMT
This is the kind of seat - with many voters unclear as to how to vote tactically - where it would be perfectly legitimate to deploy the 'Tory little helper' argument.With such voters it is a point that still has resonance - as does the raising of tuition fees. If someone is determining their vote on the basis of opposition to the introduction or raising of tuition fess then it won't be for the Labour Party. I am not sure it simply about voting for the tuition fee hike. It was doing so after a specific pre-election pledge not to do so. It was more a question of trust rather than of policy. Also for a party so heavily dependent on tactical votes in southern seats largely from the Labour inclined, forming a formal coalition with the Tories was a ‘courageous’ decision, in the words of Sir Humphrey. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2024 19:49:34 GMT
you have been warned against very bad puns, although very bad puns are a regular feature of this august forum. Are you suggesting they should be punished? starting with that one? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 22, 2024 21:51:28 GMT
Are you suggesting they should be punished? starting with that one? Dunno what you mean, Guv. 😇 |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 23, 2024 12:27:26 GMT
If someone is determining their vote on the basis of opposition to the introduction or raising of tuition fess then it won't be for the Labour Party. I am not sure it simply about voting for the tuition fee hike. It was doing so after a specific pre-election pledge not to do so. It was more a question of trust rather than of policy. Also for a party so heavily dependent on tactical votes in southern seats largely from the Labour inclined, forming a formal coalition with the Tories was a ‘courageous’ decision, in the words of Sir Humphrey. Labour pledged not to introduce them and later not to increase them. They also disgracefully kicked the issue into the long grass by setting up the Browne Review which they made sure wasn't to report until after a full term Parliament. The crisis in university funding was entirely down to their negligence |
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jul 9, 2024 21:38:52 GMT
One of the stories of election night has to be the wipe out of the Tories in Oxfordshire - something I never thought would ever happen. It'll be interesting to see if the LibDems can now entrench themselves in these rural Oxfordshire/Berkshire seats, or if this will simply be a one election cycle abnormality.
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Post by ccoleman on Jul 9, 2024 22:16:31 GMT
One of the stories of election night has to be the wipe out of the Tories in Oxfordshire - something I never thought would ever happen. It'll be interesting to see if the LibDems can now entrench themselves in these rural Oxfordshire/Berkshire seats, or if this will simply be a one election cycle abnormality. All depends on the direction the Tories move in I suppose. Surely they'll have no chance winning these Home County seats back if they move to the right to appeal to Reform voters. |
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