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Post by manchesterman on Jun 22, 2024 11:22:34 GMT
I think looking at past results is one thing, but you have to also consider how much political (and literal) capital they will invest in the seat.
According to my figures, D&W is 28th on the Lib Dems target list, but 219th on Labour's list.
Now I appreciate Labour are smashing the national polls, but I can't imagine they'd invest a lot of political capital here. If the LDs however can get their usual excellent ground game in play here, then I fully expect them to either win this seat or come within a whisker of doing so.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2024 11:22:44 GMT
Nick Palmer sees it as a 3 way contest. The Sutton Courtney by election this week was not very inspiring for LDs. The seats were only narrowly held with big drops in LD vote share to the Greens. Not clear evidence of momentum in what should be good territory for them in relation to Labour in such a rural ward.
Because they concentrated on the general election whilst the Greens threw everything at the local election. It is not a three way marginal. Some MRP surveys have put Labour ahead so it is not reasonable to expect Labour to stand aside there. Palmer does not expect the Tories to win. It is a bit reminiscent of the by elections in Mid Beds and Shropshire North. Had the latter taken place 6 - 12 months later ,Labour would have fought the set very hard and could well have emerged as the main challenger given the party was in second place in 2019. Labour polled 27% in the former Wantage seat in 2017 and could reasonably expect to exceed that this year.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 22, 2024 11:35:08 GMT
I suspect Palmer has been sent there to run a wrecking operation? Nick Palmer sees it as a 3 way contest. The Sutton Courtney by election this week was not very inspiring for LDs. The seats were only narrowly held with big drops in LD vote share to the Greens. Not clear evidence of momentum in what should be good territory for them in relation to Labour in such a rural ward.
When did Labour merge with the Greens? |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2024 11:40:20 GMT
Nick Palmer sees it as a 3 way contest. The Sutton Courtney by election this week was not very inspiring for LDs. The seats were only narrowly held with big drops in LD vote share to the Greens. Not clear evidence of momentum in what should be good territory for them in relation to Labour in such a rural ward.
When did Labour merge with the Greens? Not my point at all - rather that it was a ward where Labour made little effort overall. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2024 11:41:53 GMT
I think the fact that the Lib Dems only lost by under 20% here in 2019 seals the deal. That said, I don't see Didcot as natural territory for them at all.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 22, 2024 11:47:25 GMT
When did Labour merge with the Greens? Not my point at all - rather that it was a ward where Labour made little effort overall. Right, Labour made little effort and their vote share went down (in the county - they hadn't stood before in the district). |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2024 11:48:17 GMT
I think the fact that the Lib Dems only lost by under 20% here in 2019 seals the deal. That said, I don't see Didcot as natural territory for them at all. Non sequitur. Labour was second in both 2017 and 2015 and is clearly taking the seat far more seriously this year. Leapfrogging is not restricted to a single party. In 1997 Labour leapfrogged the LDs in many seats cross the country. In 2010 the LDs reversed that to a fair extent only for Labour to reverse it again in 2015.In 2019 the LDs were the leapfroggers - but 2024 feels more like 1997 than 2019. Of course, there will always be exceptions to the national trend. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2024 11:50:57 GMT
Not my point at all - rather that it was a ward where Labour made little effort overall. Right, Labour made little effort and their vote share went down (in the county - they hadn't stood before in the district). But if Labour polled circa 10% in Sutton Courtney with little effort, the party is likely to poll much higher than that across Didcot & Wantage as a whole. |
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 22, 2024 11:52:04 GMT
I think the fact that the Lib Dems only lost by under 20% here in 2019 seals the deal. That said, I don't see Didcot as natural territory for them at all. In Didcot, 4 out of the 8 councillors elected were LibDem in 2023. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2024 11:53:53 GMT
I think the fact that the Lib Dems only lost by under 20% here in 2019 seals the deal. That said, I don't see Didcot as natural territory for them at all. In Didcot, 4 out of the 8 councillors elected were LibDem in 2023. Sure, but it's like a mini Slough with that godawful power station and I wonder how much of that will crossover to the GE. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2024 11:56:04 GMT
I think the fact that the Lib Dems only lost by under 20% here in 2019 seals the deal. That said, I don't see Didcot as natural territory for them at all. In Didcot, 4 out of the 8 councillors elected were LibDem in 2023. LD support in Local Elections tends to greatly flatter the party in that it is often not transferred to parliamentary elections - particularky at GEs. Watford - and probably Gloucester this year - are good examples. |
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 22, 2024 12:00:09 GMT
In Didcot, 4 out of the 8 councillors elected were LibDem in 2023. Sure, but it's like a mini Slough with that godawful power station and I wonder how much of that will crossover to the GE. Most of the "godawful" power station has now been demolished. Growing up in the Vale, I came - in a strange way - to love it. I would always know that I was nearly home when I could see those towers. We'll have to wait until 4th July to see how much crossover there is, but I don't think the fact that the LibDems have had local success can simply be dismissed completely. |
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 22, 2024 12:02:52 GMT
In Didcot, 4 out of the 8 councillors elected were LibDem in 2023. LD support in Local Elections tends to greatly flatter the party in that it is often not transferred to parliamentary elections - particularky at GEs. Watford - and probably Gloucester this year - are good examples. While I agree, if you take Abingdon as an example - a local one as well - it demonstrates that the LibDems can turn local election success into general election success. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2024 12:04:29 GMT
LD support in Local Elections tends to greatly flatter the party in that it is often not transferred to parliamentary elections - particularky at GEs. Watford - and probably Gloucester this year - are good examples. While I agree, if you take Abingdon as an example - a local one as well - it demonstrates that the LibDems can turn local election success into general election success. Over decades yeah. As someone who once campaigned in OxWAb, I can test to how bedded in the Lib Dems are. |
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 22, 2024 12:06:16 GMT
While I agree, if you take Abingdon as an example - a local one as well - it demonstrates that the LibDems can turn local election success into general election success. Over decades yeah. As someone who once campaigned in OxWAb, I can test to how bedded in the Lib Dems are. Yes, and in Wantage, Grove and other parts of the seat/the Vale, the LibDems have been imbedding themselves for decades. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2024 12:12:42 GMT
Over decades yeah. As someone who once campaigned in OxWAb, I can test to how bedded in the Lib Dems are. Yes, and in Wantage, Grove and other parts of the seat/the Vale, the LibDems have been imbedding themselves for decades. But were a distant third place in the former Wantage seat in both 2017 and 2015. The 2019 outcome may have been the aberration - particularly in the context of big changes in national voting shares. |
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 22, 2024 12:16:03 GMT
Yes, and in Wantage, Grove and other parts of the seat/the Vale, the LibDems have been imbedding themselves for decades. But were a distant third place in the former Wantage seat in both 2017 and 2015. The 2019 outcome may have been the aberration - particularly in the context of big changes in national voting shares. There is no getting away from the fact that the Tory opposition has been split since the seat was created. However, where are all the Cameronite, socially liberal/fiscally conservative Tory voters going to go if they do desert the party? More likely the LibDems than Labour. |
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2024 12:23:29 GMT
But were a distant third place in the former Wantage seat in both 2017 and 2015. The 2019 outcome may have been the aberration - particularly in the context of big changes in national voting shares. There is no getting away from the fact that the Tory opposition has been split since the seat was created. However, where are all the Cameronite, socially liberal/fiscally conservative Tory voters going to go if they do desert the party? More likely the LibDems than Labour. On the new boundaries Labour would likely have polled circa 30% in 2017. Many of thise who switched from Labour to LD in 2019 are now likely to be switching back - particularly as Labour is fighting hard.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 22, 2024 12:47:30 GMT
The record's stuck ... The record's stuck ... The record's stuck ...
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Post by cathyc on Jun 22, 2024 12:52:12 GMT
Because they concentrated on the general election whilst the Greens threw everything at the local election. It is not a three way marginal. Some MRP surveys have put Labour ahead so it is not reasonable to expect Labour to stand aside there. Palmer does not expect the Tories to win. It is a bit reminiscent of the by elections in Mid Beds and Shropshire North. Had the latter taken place 6 - 12 months later ,Labour would have fought the set very hard and could well have emerged as the main challenger given the party was in second place in 2019. Labour polled 27% in the former Wantage seat in 2017 and could reasonably expect to exceed that this year.
Have they? Genuine question. |
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