graham
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Post by graham on May 30, 2024 16:35:15 GMT
If us election geeks on this forum are unable to identify who the main challengers are, there's little chance that the electors of Didcot & Wantage will be tactically aware. Perhaps they weren't in 1997 either. I can't help but feel that "unable" is a slight overstatement. The notional 2019 result was 50-31-16. That was when the national polling was 45 - 33 -12. n the basis of current national polling it might not be far off 30 - 29 - 30 |
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Post by nobodyimportant on May 30, 2024 16:56:19 GMT
From guesstimates at our chances in each seat last week I came up with a prediction that we would get 28 seats at the next election.
This one was the one I had as the 28th most likely.
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graham
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Post by graham on May 30, 2024 17:06:28 GMT
Which seats do you think the Liberal Democrats are likely to win, if you don't mind me asking? Even if they have a disappointing night, I can think of 15-20 seats that they should be well-placed to win. Are you expecting a repeat of 2019? That's a good question. Firstly there are the seats that are 'traditional' Liberal-Conservative marginals, with small Conservative majorities. They should win most of these: Carshalton, Cheltenham, Lewes, Cheadle, Mid Dumbartonshire. Eastbourne and St Ives are trickier. Then there's a whole raft of more distant targets, that may or may not have been won by the Liberal Democrats between 1997 and 2010, but where they are considerably behind since 2015. It's hard to say which will come off and which won't, as much may depend on local campaigns, and where Labour has a significant presence it will be more difficult, eg Wimbledon, South Cambridgeshire, Hazel Grove, none of which are nailed on. I think their performance in some southern seats, particularly Surrey, flattered them in 2019, and expect disappointment in most. Woking looks a good bet though. Everything else has a Conservative lead of 14% or greater. Current polling suggests that the Conservative share will drop about 14%, but not all of this will go to the Liberals - indeed sometimes none of it will, and in reality the drop will probably be smaller. They should win a few of these seats - maybe 3 or 4 - but I'm not going to venture which. In total probably they will make around 10 gains, no more. Your point that they are 'well placed' in 15-20 seats is fair, but being well placed doesn't mean they will win them all. I suspect that Eastbourne and St Ives are more likely than Carshalton and Mid Dunbartonshire. Guildford is also a likely gain - as is Hazel Grove. Carshalton may be less straightforward despite having been held 1997 - 2019. That seat had been a Tory/Labour marginal in the 1970s with Labour only falling to third place in 1983. For some reason, Labour failed to fully recover there with the LDs winning in 1997. Thereafter, there was massive Labour tactical voting for the LDs against the Tories, but that could unwind now that the LDs have lost the seat with the former MP - Tom Brake - not standing again. There may as a result be a significant jump in the Labour vote. Mid Dunbaronshire is really a new seat albeit effectively the successor to Jo Swinson's former constituency. which currently held by the SNP had been Labour until 2005.Labour's surge in Scotland plus loss of Jo Swinson's personal vote could actually mean this ends up as a LD/Labour battle but is difficult to call.
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YL
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Post by YL on May 30, 2024 17:53:00 GMT
I don't think it's that easy to tell unless you've been on the ground; some seats where the 1992 order was Con/LD/Lab behaved very differently from others.
Personally my guess would be that the strong Lib Dem local government base in this constituency combined with the fact that they are clearly ahead on the notionals would give them a distinct advantage in getting a tactical squeeze going, and I also don't get the impression that Labour are putting much effort in in this sort of seat. But I am not going to make a confident prediction from Yorkshire based on that.
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graham
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Post by graham on May 30, 2024 18:03:22 GMT
I don't think it's that easy to tell unless you've been on the ground; some seats where the 1992 order was Con/LD/Lab behaved very differently from others. Personally my guess would be that the strong Lib Dem local government base in this constituency combined with the fact that they are clearly ahead on the notionals would give them a distinct advantage in getting a tactical squeeze going, and I also don't get the impression that Labour are putting much effort in in this sort of seat. But I am not going to make a confident prediction from Yorkshire based on that. The former Labour MP - Nick Palmer - is chairman of the CLP and has stated on Political Betting.com that the party is working hard here. There has already been a lot of work done - and LDs are not too pleased! |
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Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2024 18:09:29 GMT
I don't think it's that easy to tell unless you've been on the ground; some seats where the 1992 order was Con/LD/Lab behaved very differently from others. Personally my guess would be that the strong Lib Dem local government base in this constituency combined with the fact that they are clearly ahead on the notionals would give them a distinct advantage in getting a tactical squeeze going, and I also don't get the impression that Labour are putting much effort in in this sort of seat. But I am not going to make a confident prediction from Yorkshire based on that. The former Labour MP - Nick Palmer - is chairman of the CLP and has stated on Political Betting.com that the party is working hard here. There has already been a lot of work done - and LDs are not too pleased! He is in Godalming - not Didcot & Wantage |
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Post by iainbhx on May 30, 2024 18:11:36 GMT
My belief that the Liberal Democrats are going to be disappointed and win only a few seats is illustrated by seats like this. They aren't going to squeeze Labour votes - rather the Labour percentage will rise, as low information and occasional voters turn out and vote on national issues. The Liberal vote may well actually drop, and the Conservative vote would have to completely collapse for their sizeable lead (18% on the notionals) to be overcome by a larger drop in their vote than the Liberal vote. I agree - and expect Labour to exceed 30% in the new seat. You are both going to be so wrong on election night. There will be seats where Labour overtakes the LibDems on election night just like in 1997, this won't be one of them. |
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graham
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Post by graham on May 30, 2024 18:17:54 GMT
The former Labour MP - Nick Palmer - is chairman of the CLP and has stated on Political Betting.com that the party is working hard here. There has already been a lot of work done - and LDs are not too pleased! He is in Godalming - not Didcot & Wantage He was and still sits there as a councillor but has now moved to Oxfordshire! |
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Post by evergreenadam on May 30, 2024 20:20:01 GMT
He is in Godalming - not Didcot & Wantage He was and still sits there as a councillor but has now moved to Oxfordshire! He must love living in Lib Dem towns. |
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Post by greenhert on May 30, 2024 20:43:53 GMT
My belief that the Liberal Democrats are going to be disappointed and win only a few seats is illustrated by seats like this. They aren't going to squeeze Labour votes - rather the Labour percentage will rise, as low information and occasional voters turn out and vote on national issues. The Liberal vote may well actually drop, and the Conservative vote would have to completely collapse for their sizeable lead (18% on the notionals) to be overcome by a larger drop in their vote than the Liberal vote. This in fact happened in many seats in 1997 where the Liberal Democrats were the clear challengers e.g. in much of Wiltshire and in rural Lincolnshire. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on May 30, 2024 22:30:06 GMT
FWIW, my prediction for Didcot & Wantage (according to the algorithm I described in the prediction thread) is “Con hold 1k (3 way marginal)”. Technically, the percentages I got for the three main parties were Con 29 LD 26 Lab 31, but I “adjusted” it a bit.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 8, 2024 9:51:50 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 11, 2024 3:40:17 GMT
Mocky Khan I think is a Didcot Labour councillor. If they campaign hard the vote, they'll potentially split the LD vote and make sure the Tories come through the middle - although Reform will likely do well in parts like Ladygrove too. This should be counteracted by the Lib Dem strength and popularity in Wantage/Grove itself, and I expect them to do well in Wally in this election, at least.
Ultimately, I'd say that it is too close to call between the Lib Dems and the Tories.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jun 14, 2024 12:06:12 GMT
Layla Moran campaigning in this seat today...
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Post by luckyllama on Jun 22, 2024 7:38:57 GMT
I suspect Palmer has been sent there to run a wrecking operation?
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Post by matureleft on Jun 22, 2024 8:20:25 GMT
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Post by luckyllama on Jun 22, 2024 10:41:43 GMT
He's still a councillor in Surrey, and would surely have left that council if he now lives in Oxfordshire |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 22, 2024 10:44:56 GMT
He's still a councillor in Surrey, and would surely have left that council if he now lives in Oxfordshire Lol. That doesn't always happen. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 22, 2024 10:58:12 GMT
I suspect Palmer has been sent there to run a wrecking operation? Nick Palmer sees it as a 3 way contest. The Sutton Courtney by election this week was not very inspiring for LDs. The seats were only narrowly held with big drops in LD vote share to the Greens. Not clear evidence of momentum in what should be good territory for them in relation to Labour in such a rural ward.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 22, 2024 11:00:38 GMT
I suspect Palmer has been sent there to run a wrecking operation? Nick Palmer sees it as a 3 way contest. The Sutton Courtney by election this week was not very inspiring for LDs. The seats were only narrowly held with big drops in LD vote share to the Greens. Not clear evidence of momentum in what should be good territory for them in relation to Labour in such a rural ward.
Because they concentrated on the general election whilst the Greens threw everything at the local election. It is not a three way marginal. |
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