Didcot and Wantage

[stb12]

Didcot and Wantage

[Clark]

Who are the main challengers here? Both Labour and the Lib Dems are similar odds to gain the seat - perhaps would could see the Tories hanging on against a split oppositions a bit like Robert Jackson did in 1997.

[gerrardwinstanley]

May 30, 2024 12:40:11 GMT Clark said:

Who are the main challengers here? Both Labour and the Lib Dems are similar odds to gain the seat - perhaps would could see the Tories hanging on against a split oppositions a bit like Robert Jackson did in 1997.

I would say the LibDems. While Labour still has some support in Didcot itself, the LibDems are far more competitive in the surrounding villages and other towns: Wantage, Wallingford, and Grove.

Checking the 2023 district results, the LibDems did manage to win four seats in Didcot.

[graham]

2017 might offer the best guide. At that GE Labour polled 26.9% with the LDs on 14.5%. The LDs came second in 2019 but Labour should now be stronger there than back in 2017.

[John Chanin]

My belief that the Liberal Democrats are going to be disappointed and win only a few seats is illustrated by seats like this. They aren't going to squeeze Labour votes - rather the Labour percentage will rise, as low information and occasional voters turn out and vote on national issues. The Liberal vote may well actually drop, and the Conservative vote would have to completely collapse for their sizeable lead (18% on the notionals) to be overcome by a larger drop in their vote than the Liberal vote.

[graham]

May 30, 2024 13:01:04 GMT John Chanin said:

My belief that the Liberal Democrats are going to be disappointed and win only a few seats is illustrated by seats like this. They aren't going to squeeze Labour votes - rather the Labour percentage will rise, as low information and occasional voters turn out and vote on national issues. The Liberal vote may well actually drop, and the Conservative vote would have to completely collapse for their sizeable lead (18% on the notionals) to be overcome by a larger drop in their vote than the Liberal vote.

I agree - and expect Labour to exceed 30% in the new seat.

[islington]

May 30, 2024 13:01:04 GMT John Chanin said:

My belief that the Liberal Democrats are going to be disappointed and win only a few seats is illustrated by seats like this. They aren't going to squeeze Labour votes - rather the Labour percentage will rise, as low information and occasional voters turn out and vote on national issues. The Liberal vote may well actually drop, and the Conservative vote would have to completely collapse for their sizeable lead (18% on the notionals) to be overcome by a larger drop in their vote than the Liberal vote.

Yes. There are a lot of seats that are broadly similar to Didcot and this is essentially my thinking about them. It's why my prediction of 17 for the Lib Dems is much lower than many other commentators'. I do, however, reserve the right to vary it upwards if the Lib Dems' polling shows signs of rising above its current 9 or 10% - but I don't think this will happen. 

In short I anticipate that southern England (outside London) will remain mainly blue, albeit with an increased number of splashes of a different colour dotted across it. Those splashes, however, will tend to be red rather than yellow.

Well, we'll soon know for sure. It's E-35 as of today.

[iain]

The Financial Times model, which basically uses uniform swing, shows a result here (using national voteshares of Lab 44%, Con 24%, LD 9%) of:
Conservative - 30.2%
Lib Dem - 28.5%
Labour - 24.6%

There certainly doesn't seem much, indeed any, evidence that Labour will be the main challenger in this seat.

[markgoodair]

The Newstateman/Britain Predicts Have
Lib Dem 38.9%
Con 29.9%
Lab 17.5%
Reform 7.0%
Green5.3%

[graham]

May 30, 2024 14:46:33 GMT markgoodair said:

The Newstateman/Britain Predicts Have
Lib Dem 38.9%
Con 29.9%
Lab 17.5%
Reform 7.0%
Green5.3%

That's not very credible given that Labour polled 27% in Wantage in 2017.

[jamesharrison93]

May 30, 2024 13:01:04 GMT John Chanin said:

My belief that the Liberal Democrats are going to be disappointed and win only a few seats is illustrated by seats like this. They aren't going to squeeze Labour votes - rather the Labour percentage will rise, as low information and occasional voters turn out and vote on national issues. The Liberal vote may well actually drop, and the Conservative vote would have to completely collapse for their sizeable lead (18% on the notionals) to be overcome by a larger drop in their vote than the Liberal vote.

Which seats do you think the Liberal Democrats are likely to win, if you don't mind me asking?

Even if they have a disappointing night, I can think of 15-20 seats that they should be well-placed to win. Are you expecting a repeat of 2019?

[Clark]

If us election geeks on this forum are unable to identify who the main challengers are, there's little chance that the electors of Didcot & Wantage will be tactically aware. Perhaps they weren't in 1997 either.

[Sibboleth]

May 30, 2024 15:37:26 GMT Clark said:

If us election geeks on this forum are unable to identify who the main challengers are, there's little chance that the electors of Didcot & Wantage will be tactically aware. Perhaps they weren't in 1997 either.

Sometimes there's a split opposition, and sometimes the electorate locally just works it out. No one quite knows how sometimes.

[jamesharrison93]

May 30, 2024 15:37:26 GMT Clark said:

If us election geeks on this forum are unable to identify who the main challengers are, there's little chance that the electors of Didcot & Wantage will be tactically aware. Perhaps they weren't in 1997 either.

From watching the 1997 election footage, I can think of a few constituencies were the Conservative was saved by an electorate that didn't quite know who to plonk far tactically.

Folkestone and Hythe is the one that immediately springs to mind; I'm sure there'll be others.

[markgoodair]

May 30, 2024 15:43:28 GMT Sibboleth said:

May 30, 2024 15:37:26 GMT Clark said:

If us election geeks on this forum are unable to identify who the main challengers are, there's little chance that the electors of Didcot & Wantage will be tactically aware. Perhaps they weren't in 1997 either.

Sometimes there's a split opposition, and sometimes the electorate locally just works it out. No one quite knows how sometimes.

Oxfordshire Compass, the local afflicaate of Compass Office have formally lent their support to Liberal Democrat candidate , Olly Glover as the best placed candidate to defeat the Tories .

[eastmidlandsright]

Shocking as this may be not everyone fails to vote for the best placed non-Tory through ignorance. Some may for example have preferences along the line of 1. Lab, 2. Con, 3. Satan, 4 Lib Dem

[finsobruce]

May 30, 2024 15:43:28 GMT Sibboleth said:

May 30, 2024 15:37:26 GMT Clark said:

If us election geeks on this forum are unable to identify who the main challengers are, there's little chance that the electors of Didcot & Wantage will be tactically aware. Perhaps they weren't in 1997 either.

Sometimes there's a split opposition, and sometimes the electorate locally just works it out. No one quite knows how sometimes.

That's democracy for you.

[finsobruce]

May 30, 2024 15:55:45 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

Shocking as this may be not everyone fails to vote for the best placed non-Tory through ignorance. Some may for example have preferences along the line of 1. Lab, 2. Con, 3. Satan, 4 Lib Dem

I bet Satan has some impressive bar charts.

[carolus]

May 30, 2024 15:37:26 GMT Clark said:

If us election geeks on this forum are unable to identify who the main challengers are, there's little chance that the electors of Didcot & Wantage will be tactically aware. Perhaps they weren't in 1997 either.

I can't help but feel that "unable" is a slight overstatement.

The notional 2019 result was 50-31-16.

[John Chanin]

May 30, 2024 15:35:46 GMT jamesharrison93 said:

May 30, 2024 13:01:04 GMT John Chanin said:

My belief that the Liberal Democrats are going to be disappointed and win only a few seats is illustrated by seats like this. They aren't going to squeeze Labour votes - rather the Labour percentage will rise, as low information and occasional voters turn out and vote on national issues. The Liberal vote may well actually drop, and the Conservative vote would have to completely collapse for their sizeable lead (18% on the notionals) to be overcome by a larger drop in their vote than the Liberal vote.

Which seats do you think the Liberal Democrats are likely to win, if you don't mind me asking?

Even if they have a disappointing night, I can think of 15-20 seats that they should be well-placed to win. Are you expecting a repeat of 2019?

That's a good question.  Firstly there are the seats that are 'traditional' Liberal-Conservative marginals, with small Conservative majorities.  They should win most of these:  Carshalton, Cheltenham, Lewes, Cheadle, Mid Dumbartonshire.  Eastbourne and St Ives are trickier. 

Then there's a whole raft of more distant targets, that may or may not have been won by the Liberal Democrats between 1997 and 2010, but where they are considerably behind since 2015.  It's hard to say which will come off and which won't, as much may depend on local campaigns, and where Labour has a significant presence it will be more difficult, eg Wimbledon, South Cambridgeshire, Hazel Grove, none of which are nailed on. I think their performance in some southern seats, particularly Surrey, flattered them in 2019, and expect disappointment in most.  Woking looks a good bet though.  

Everything else has a Conservative lead of 14% or greater.  Current polling suggests that the Conservative share will drop about 14%, but not all of this will go to the Liberals - indeed sometimes none of it will, and in reality the drop will probably be smaller.  They should win a few of these seats - maybe 3 or 4 - but I'm not going to venture which.  In total probably they will make around 10 gains, no more.

Your point that they are 'well placed' in 15-20 seats is fair, but being well placed doesn't mean they will win them all.