Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,011
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 14, 2024 16:35:12 GMT
For what it's worth, I was in Chichester in March and heard people on the bus talking about what a rubbish MP they had; and a taxi driver sounding off on the same subject, unprompted. I don't remember hearing that level of discontent in former years. Yes, Keegan doesn’t appear well-regarded. She was a local councillor in Chichester district before she became MP so she’s been on the local scene for quite a while. Lib Dem organisation across most of the seat seems reasonable and they have money, there are local issues, their control of the council hasn’t yet become a drag and they’ve chosen a candidate who is unlikely to put anyone off. The Tory local election debacle will have deflated and lost activists. There’s a decent Labour vote to squeeze. However on a brief trip back a couple of days ago the Lib Dem board display was lighter than I’d expected - the odd one here and there. You were obviously in the wrong part of town. I was there on Sunday and there were stacks of window posters and stakeboards for the Lib Dems in the four rounds of delivery I did. In that time my delivery colleague and I only spotted one poster each for Labour, Green and Tory. |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 14, 2024 17:29:10 GMT
Yes, Keegan doesn’t appear well-regarded. She was a local councillor in Chichester district before she became MP so she’s been on the local scene for quite a while. Lib Dem organisation across most of the seat seems reasonable and they have money, there are local issues, their control of the council hasn’t yet become a drag and they’ve chosen a candidate who is unlikely to put anyone off. The Tory local election debacle will have deflated and lost activists. There’s a decent Labour vote to squeeze. However on a brief trip back a couple of days ago the Lib Dem board display was lighter than I’d expected - the odd one here and there. You were obviously in the wrong part of town. I was there on Sunday and there were stacks of window posters and stakeboards for the Lib Dems in the four rounds of delivery I did. In that time my delivery colleague and I only spotted one poster each for Labour, Green and Tory. Perhaps the gap of a week explains the difference? My journeys were on the main roads through the city not on estates. The other point is the little city has been pretty strong for the party for quite a while. While boundary changes have made it a somewhat more urban seat than before there remains a large rural area where the party is less strong. But, if I were a betting man, I’d put money on a Lib Dem win (and I’ve had that view for a while). The candidate doesn’t seem fantastic but she won’t put any off. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 11:39:06 GMT
LD 43%
CON 40%
LAB 10%
REF 5%
OTH 2%
The Tories are getting their arse handed to them on a plate on the Sussex coast at this election.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 23, 2024 12:09:56 GMT
LD 43% CON 40% LAB 10% REF 5% OTH 2% The Tories are getting their arse handed to them on a plate on the Sussex coast at this election. I have seen some maps, after either MRP or Baxtered polls, where there is no Tory MP on the South Coast between Havant and Thanet. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 23, 2024 14:38:36 GMT
LD 43% CON 40% LAB 10% REF 5% OTH 2% The Tories are getting their arse handed to them on a plate on the Sussex coast at this election. I have seen some maps, after either MRP or Baxtered polls, where there is no Tory MP on the South Coast between Havant and Thanet. If it comes to pass (and I hope it does!), I shall feel completely disoriented for a long time - it will be like living in a parallel universe. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 27, 2024 15:11:42 GMT
Interesting vox pop in Chichester from, of all people, Aaron Bastani. This is some evidence, I get it's one vox pop lads, that the purported rise of support for Reform UK among the youngest cohort of voters may be true.
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observer
Non-Aligned
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Post by observer on Jun 27, 2024 15:17:12 GMT
Interesting vox pop in Chichester from, of all people, Aaron Bastani. This is some evidence, I get it's one vox pop lads, that the purported rise of support for Reform UK among the youngest cohort of voters may be true. I've read similar things a few times... even that poll subsets show Reform second only to Labour among the young I haven't studied the subsets so I don't know if that's correct. A guess... they've seen all the stultifying political correctness on schools and are rebelling |
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 27, 2024 15:55:25 GMT
Interesting vox pop in Chichester from, of all people, Aaron Bastani. This is some evidence, I get it's one vox pop lads, that the purported rise of support for Reform UK among the youngest cohort of voters may be true. I've read similar things a few times... even that poll subsets show Reform second only to Labour among the young I haven't studied the subsets so I don't know if that's correct. A guess... they've seen all the stultifying political correctness on schools and are rebelling Or they are just rebelling? ‘What are you rebelling against?’ ‘What’ve you got?’ |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 27, 2024 17:58:17 GMT
I've read similar things a few times... even that poll subsets show Reform second only to Labour among the young I haven't studied the subsets so I don't know if that's correct. A guess... they've seen all the stultifying political correctness on schools and are rebelling Or they are just rebelling? ‘What are you rebelling against?’ ‘What’ve you got?’ Maybe, but I don't see why we would be immune from what's going on in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Spain etc. with portions of the youth moving far right. It started small there too, and look where they are now. Especially with immigration hurting the youngest hardest. Indeed, I'm not all that young anymore and it's affecting me really badly too. Here in Dundee rents are pretty much unaffordable right now in my new immediate post graduation state. I'm probably going to have to move as far afield as Brechin in order to get an affordable place. Only Reform is telling the truth on that, so it makes sense that some young voters would start to move in that direction and he's only been back in politics for 3½ weeks. |
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 27, 2024 18:07:04 GMT
Or they are just rebelling? ‘What are you rebelling against?’ ‘What’ve you got?’ Maybe, but I don't see why we would be immune from what's going on in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Spain etc. with portions of the youth moving far right. It started small there too, and look where they are now. Especially with immigration hurting the youngest hardest. Indeed, I'm not all that young anymore and it's affecting me really badly too. Here in Dundee rents are pretty much unaffordable right now in my new immediate post graduation state. I'm probably going to have to move as far afield as Brechin in order to get an affordable place. Only Reform is telling the truth on that, so it makes sense that some young voters would start to move in that direction and he's only been back in politics for 3½ weeks. The truth is that we need to build more houses… |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 27, 2024 18:11:01 GMT
Maybe, but I don't see why we would be immune from what's going on in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Spain etc. with portions of the youth moving far right. It started small there too, and look where they are now. Especially with immigration hurting the youngest hardest. Indeed, I'm not all that young anymore and it's affecting me really badly too. Here in Dundee rents are pretty much unaffordable right now in my new immediate post graduation state. I'm probably going to have to move as far afield as Brechin in order to get an affordable place. Only Reform is telling the truth on that, so it makes sense that some young voters would start to move in that direction and he's only been back in politics for 3½ weeks. The truth is that we need to build more houses… We can't build at least 750,000 houses per annum even in an ideal environment, and that's only to meet the net number. If we have to meet anywhere near the gross figure, well... |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 27, 2024 18:12:42 GMT
Maybe, but I don't see why we would be immune from what's going on in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Spain etc. with portions of the youth moving far right. It started small there too, and look where they are now. Especially with immigration hurting the youngest hardest. Indeed, I'm not all that young anymore and it's affecting me really badly too. Here in Dundee rents are pretty much unaffordable right now in my new immediate post graduation state. I'm probably going to have to move as far afield as Brechin in order to get an affordable place. Only Reform is telling the truth on that, so it makes sense that some young voters would start to move in that direction and he's only been back in politics for 3½ weeks. The truth is that we need to build more houses… Or get rid of 2M immigrants. |
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observer
Non-Aligned
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Post by observer on Jun 27, 2024 19:51:45 GMT
My niece complains bitterly about rents/house prices and insecure work so she will vote Labour or LD...who will make the causes of her upset worse.
The brighter young people are joining the dots
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jul 2, 2024 13:11:56 GMT
Spent a portion of the morning delivering in the leafy south of constituency (Birdham). Spotted 3 Keegan boards and 2 LD stakeboards. 2 people volunteered they would vote for us and one person was definitely not a LD voter...
There is an awful lot of money there...
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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Post by polupolu on Jul 2, 2024 13:25:36 GMT
Spent a portion of the morning delivering in the leafy south of constituency (Birdham). Spotted 3 Keegan boards and 2 LD stakeboards. 2 people volunteered they would vote for us and one person was definitely not a LD voter... There is an awful lot of money there... I don't know how true this is but I do remember reading something suggesting one of the parishes in the area had the highest median family income in the country outside London. Might have been Itchenor, which I guess would be in Birdham ward. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 2, 2024 15:59:44 GMT
Spent a portion of the morning delivering in the leafy south of constituency (Birdham). Spotted 3 Keegan boards and 2 LD stakeboards. 2 people volunteered they would vote for us and one person was definitely not a LD voter... There is an awful lot of money there... I don't know how true this is but I do remember reading something suggesting one of the parishes in the area had the highest median family income in the country outside London. Might have been Itchenor, which I guess would be in Birdham ward. Isn't the ward called Harbour Villages? A lot of very salubrious villages included - I have a long standing friend and one-time LiBDem council running mate now living in Bosham, and a great-grandson living in Fishbourne, which are two of the other Harbour villages, so I know the area a bit. Looking at the last local elections for this ward I spot: LD 2342/2257/ 2066 Con 855/755/690 GP 705 Ind 341 Lab 309. Of course , no guarantee that would translate in a GE, but one might expect the LDs to be in contention here. |
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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Post by polupolu on Jul 2, 2024 16:13:51 GMT
I don't know how true this is but I do remember reading something suggesting one of the parishes in the area had the highest median family income in the country outside London. Might have been Itchenor, which I guess would be in Birdham ward. Isn't the ward called Harbour Villages? A lot of very salubrious villages included - I have a long standing friend and one-time LiBDem council running mate now living in Bosham, and a great-grandson living in Fishbourne, which are two of the other Harbour villages, so I know the area a bit. Looking at the last local elections for this ward I spot: LD 2342/2257/ 2066 Con 855/755/690 GP 705 Ind 341 Lab 309. Of course , no guarantee that would translate in a GE, but one might expect the LDs to be in contention here. I was going on a very fuzzy memory from some time ago - I bow to your local knowledge. Fishbourne Roman villa is worth a visit if people are in the area incidentally.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 2, 2024 16:15:37 GMT
Fishbourne is excellent.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Post by john07 on Jul 2, 2024 16:19:45 GMT
Especially in the Matrix. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,011
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 2, 2024 19:04:03 GMT
I don't know how true this is but I do remember reading something suggesting one of the parishes in the area had the highest median family income in the country outside London. Might have been Itchenor, which I guess would be in Birdham ward. Isn't the ward called Harbour Villages? A lot of very salubrious villages included - I have a long standing friend and one-time LiBDem council running mate now living in Bosham, and a great-grandson living in Fishbourne, which are two of the other Harbour villages, so I know the area a bit. Looking at the last local elections for this ward I spot: LD 2342/2257/ 2066 Con 855/755/690 GP 705 Ind 341 Lab 309. Of course , no guarantee that would translate in a GE, but one might expect the LDs to be in contention here. No, Birdham & [West] Itchenor are in The Witterings ward. Harbour Villages ward, which includes Bosham, Fishbourne (which I'm literally passing though as I type this) and others, takes in areas on the north and east side of Chichester Harbour only. |
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