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Post by arnieg on May 25, 2024 21:12:45 GMT
I don't think Northavon was much of a surprise in 1997. Guildford in 2001 was, though. North Avon was a stretch in 1997 (Kingston was thereal outlier in that campaign), but Guildford in '01 was certainly a target. (I worked on the national campaign in both these elections.) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 25, 2024 21:15:04 GMT
My recollection is that Northavon was certainly one of the more surprising/unexpected gains in 1997. I think there may be an element of thinking it was not surprising in retrospect, but it was at the time. There were several more 'likely' Lib Dem gains in the South West which didn't come off.
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Post by batman on May 25, 2024 22:09:23 GMT
I don't think Northavon was much of a surprise in 1997. Guildford in 2001 was, though. I'd agree. I think the other surprise in 2001 was Ludlow. that was certainly a major surprise even though the Tories were in particular disarray in that constituency at that time. |
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Post by batman on May 25, 2024 22:10:54 GMT
I remember not being surprised when Steve Webb won Northavon, local elections had suggested that the Tories were in serious difficulties there. Kingston & Surbiton was more of a surprise, although it would be a huge surprise if the Tories won it now........
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 22:20:45 GMT
I remember not being surprised when Steve Webb won Northavon, local elections had suggested that the Tories were in serious difficulties there. Kingston & Surbiton was more of a surprise, although it would be a huge surprise if the Tories won it now........ I wasn't surprised by Northavon either but it was I think the first Lib Dem gain of the 1997 GE so perhaps that is why it was unexpected in some people's minds. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on May 25, 2024 23:16:24 GMT
”North” and “Avon” might be a bit of a kloo Which one? The one that used to be a county, and not just a river. |
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Post by monksfield on May 26, 2024 7:13:06 GMT
I'd agree. I think the other surprise in 2001 was Ludlow. that was certainly a major surprise even though the Tories were in particular disarray in that constituency at that time. As a Ludlow voter and with some connections to the LibDem campaign - I shall confess to delivering leaflets - I had an inkling it was competitive and that (a) there was a tremendously effective squeeze on the Labour vote and (b) the local Tories were deeply disillusioned. It was still a very pleasant surprise to see the gain when it came through on Ceefax (!). Fairly sure they counted Friday am. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 26, 2024 19:16:55 GMT
that was certainly a major surprise even though the Tories were in particular disarray in that constituency at that time. As a Ludlow voter and with some connections to the LibDem campaign - I shall confess to delivering leaflets - I had an inkling it was competitive and that (a) there was a tremendously effective squeeze on the Labour vote and (b) the local Tories were deeply disillusioned. It was still a very pleasant surprise to see the gain when it came through on Ceefax (!). Fairly sure they counted Friday am. Forget National Service - bring back Ceefax! |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 26, 2024 20:16:04 GMT
As a Ludlow voter and with some connections to the LibDem campaign - I shall confess to delivering leaflets - I had an inkling it was competitive and that (a) there was a tremendously effective squeeze on the Labour vote and (b) the local Tories were deeply disillusioned. It was still a very pleasant surprise to see the gain when it came through on Ceefax (!). Fairly sure they counted Friday am. Forget National Service - bring back Ceefax! Never mind Ceefax, how about ERNIE the Premium Bonds machine, and the Littlewoods Treble Chance? |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 26, 2024 21:38:48 GMT
Forget National Service - bring back Ceefax! Never mind Ceefax, how about ERNIE the Premium Bonds machine, and the Littlewoods Treble Chance? Nana Foggy used to look at whether ERNIE had delivered for her via Ceefax at the start of every month. Nowadays I just check if I've won anything on an app on my phone. It's just not the same  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 0:31:22 GMT
that was certainly a major surprise even though the Tories were in particular disarray in that constituency at that time. As a Ludlow voter and with some connections to the LibDem campaign - I shall confess to delivering leaflets - I had an inkling it was competitive and that (a) there was a tremendously effective squeeze on the Labour vote and (b) the local Tories were deeply disillusioned. It was still a very pleasant surprise to see the gain when it came through on Ceefax (!). Fairly sure they counted Friday am. I think from memory the declaration came through sometime between 6am and 8am on the Friday morning. It was certainly one of the last handful of overnight results before they moved on to the Friday daytime counts. By that point Winchester had been suspended to give the counting staff a break and wasn't completed until around 6.30pm on Friday when it was the last result to be declared. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 27, 2024 10:49:09 GMT
Forget National Service - bring back Ceefax! Never mind Ceefax, how about ERNIE the Premium Bonds machine, and the Littlewoods Treble Chance? ERNIE is still in use, although a rather more modern model: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premium_Bond#ERNIE |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2024 11:23:26 GMT
As a Ludlow voter and with some connections to the LibDem campaign - I shall confess to delivering leaflets - I had an inkling it was competitive and that (a) there was a tremendously effective squeeze on the Labour vote and (b) the local Tories were deeply disillusioned. It was still a very pleasant surprise to see the gain when it came through on Ceefax (!). Fairly sure they counted Friday am. I think from memory the declaration came through sometime between 6am and 8am on the Friday morning. It was certainly one of the last handful of overnight results before they moved on to the Friday daytime counts. By that point Winchester had been suspended to give the counting staff a break and wasn't completed until around 6.30pm on Friday when it was the last result to be declared. Winchester did that in 1997, the LibDem gain in Ludlow was 2001  |
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Post by finsobruce on May 27, 2024 11:24:29 GMT
The fastest premium bond machine in the west |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 16:40:06 GMT
I think from memory the declaration came through sometime between 6am and 8am on the Friday morning. It was certainly one of the last handful of overnight results before they moved on to the Friday daytime counts. By that point Winchester had been suspended to give the counting staff a break and wasn't completed until around 6.30pm on Friday when it was the last result to be declared. Winchester did that in 1997, the LibDem gain in Ludlow was 2001 Thanks Bishop. My memory has been deteriorating for the last couple of years due to health issues and sadly this is another example. 🙄 |
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on Jun 2, 2024 8:44:38 GMT
Tugenhadt campaigning in Lavant yesterday. Has Keegan needed to call in support?
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Post by matureleft on Jun 7, 2024 21:54:01 GMT
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jun 7, 2024 22:03:43 GMT
The LD odds have moved from 11/2 to 15/8 in 2 weeks.
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polupolu
Lib Dem
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Post by polupolu on Jun 7, 2024 22:10:00 GMT
For what it's worth, I was in Chichester in March and heard people on the bus talking about what a rubbish MP they had; and a taxi driver sounding off on the same subject, unprompted.
I don't remember hearing that level of discontent in former years.
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Post by matureleft on Jun 8, 2024 4:55:54 GMT
For what it's worth, I was in Chichester in March and heard people on the bus talking about what a rubbish MP they had; and a taxi driver sounding off on the same subject, unprompted. I don't remember hearing that level of discontent in former years. Yes, Keegan doesn’t appear well-regarded. She was a local councillor in Chichester district before she became MP so she’s been on the local scene for quite a while. Lib Dem organisation across most of the seat seems reasonable and they have money, there are local issues, their control of the council hasn’t yet become a drag and they’ve chosen a candidate who is unlikely to put anyone off. The Tory local election debacle will have deflated and lost activists. There’s a decent Labour vote to squeeze. However on a brief trip back a couple of days ago the Lib Dem board display was lighter than I’d expected - the odd one here and there. |
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