Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,506
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Post by Foggy on Oct 23, 2020 22:37:36 GMT
B.C. goes to the polls this weekend. The NDP are fielding a full quota of 87 candidates, the Liberals are standing 86 (after one was denounced as noted above by maxque) and the Greens are running 74. The Libertarians have a slate of 25, ahead of the BC Conservatives (whom one polling company still appears to prompt for) on just 19. There are also 25 independent candidates. A further 16 candidates come from 5 micro-parties, one of which – the former Western Canada Concept – has recently rebranded itself 'Wexit'. Premier John Horgan's Dippers are favoured to win a majority despite dragging voters to the polls seven months early. The Green Party under Sonia Furstenau will again get a decent share of the vote, but will do well to hang onto all of their current 3 seats, particularly as former leader Andrew Weaver is retiring and any personal vote in his riding will be lost. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson will hope to defy the polls in the way his predecessor Christie Clark did in 2013.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 25, 2020 1:07:37 GMT
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,506
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Post by Foggy on Oct 25, 2020 2:08:01 GMT
The BC Conservatives haven't had any formal link with their federal counterparts for decades. That said, they at least ran a full slate of candidates not so long ago and had their leader included in the debates in – IIRC – 2013, with all main pollsters prompting for them. The BC Liberals are further to the right economically then their federal counterparts, so many who vote Tory federally often park their votes with them provincially to ensure the least worst outcome in their riding. They used to lend their votes to (anti)Social (dis)Credit as the "stop the NDP" option until the former's collapse in the 1990s. Voters who are socially conservative, on the other hand, are screwed unless they have a Conservative or Christian Heritage candidate in their constituency. It remains to be seen if enough of them will hold their nose and vote Liberal too in the remaining 50-odd districts, but I'm guessing most won't. Coverage is available here. Polling stations close in a little over 50 minutes.
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Post by matureleft on Oct 25, 2020 6:01:18 GMT
Projected NDP 55 Lib 29 Green 3. Pretty emphatic.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 25, 2020 12:18:42 GMT
So much for those late Liberal "private polls" showing a close finish
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Post by MacShimidh on Oct 25, 2020 12:25:02 GMT
Projected NDP 55 Lib 29 Green 3. Pretty emphatic. For the last twenty years or so, BC politics has been dominated by a big-tent but leftward-trending Liberal Party whose main draw was that they weren't the incredibly unpopular NDP. Clearly, now that the NDP has rebuilt their reputation and have an emphatically popular governor, that platform could no longer hold up. I would expect there to be a lot of soul-searching in the BC opposition parties over the next few years.
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 25, 2020 12:34:03 GMT
Projected NDP 55 Lib 29 Green 3. Pretty emphatic. For the last twenty years or so, BC politics has been dominated by a big-tent but leftward-trending Liberal Party whose main draw was that they weren't the incredibly unpopular NDP. Clearly, now that the NDP has rebuilt their reputation and have an emphatically popular governor, that platform could no longer hold up. I would expect there to be a lot of soul-searching in the BC opposition parties over the next few years. I thought the BC Liberals were slightly right of centre? If not who do conservative voters opt for?
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Post by MacShimidh on Oct 25, 2020 12:43:38 GMT
For the last twenty years or so, BC politics has been dominated by a big-tent but leftward-trending Liberal Party whose main draw was that they weren't the incredibly unpopular NDP. Clearly, now that the NDP has rebuilt their reputation and have an emphatically popular governor, that platform could no longer hold up. I would expect there to be a lot of soul-searching in the BC opposition parties over the next few years. I thought the BC Liberals were slightly right of centre? If not who do conservative voters opt for? Most conservatives still would have voted Liberal as there weren't any other great options for them (the BC Conservatives stood but only in a few ridings and are essentially a fringe party). But in recent years the BC Liberals have started to align with the national Liberals, with their policies on implementing a carbon tax for instance.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,507
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 25, 2020 12:56:19 GMT
For the last twenty years or so, BC politics has been dominated by a big-tent but leftward-trending Liberal Party whose main draw was that they weren't the incredibly unpopular NDP. Clearly, now that the NDP has rebuilt their reputation and have an emphatically popular governor, that platform could no longer hold up. I would expect there to be a lot of soul-searching in the BC opposition parties over the next few years. I thought the BC Liberals were slightly right of centre? If not who do conservative voters opt for? Their current leader is a federal Liberal and their last one was pretty centrist as well. I do wonder how long that coalition can hold to be honest, unlike in Quebec they haven't got uncompromising federalism (as opposed to souverentism) to hold them together and even there CAQ has seriously eaten into them from the right outside Montreal (and of course is the current government).
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,507
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 25, 2020 12:57:01 GMT
Projected NDP 55 Lib 29 Green 3. Pretty emphatic. For the last twenty years or so, BC politics has been dominated by a big-tent but leftward-trending Liberal Party whose main draw was that they weren't the incredibly unpopular NDP. Clearly, now that the NDP has rebuilt their reputation and have an emphatically popular governor, that platform could no longer hold up. I would expect there to be a lot of soul-searching in the BC opposition parties over the next few years. Premier!
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,977
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Post by maxque on Oct 25, 2020 15:36:36 GMT
Projected NDP 55 Lib 29 Green 3. Pretty emphatic. May change still because postal voting won't be counted for 14 days. It's estimated to be 30% of the vote and polls say it will be heavilly for the NDP. Those ridings have not been called by media yet and won't until postal votes are counted (doesn't mean they might not have called other races by mistake due to postal votes). Abbotsford-Mission (Liberal by 188 votes) Chilliwack-Kent (NDP by 195 votes over disendorsed Liberal) Coquitlam-Burke Mountain (NDP by 2267 votes) Fraser-Nicola (Liberal by 385 votes) Langley East (NDP by 793 votes) Richmond South Centre (NDP by 124 votes) Richmond-Stevenson (NDP by 596 votes) Vancouver-Langara (Liberal by 647 votes) Vernon-Monashee (Liberal by 180 votes)
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 25, 2020 18:56:09 GMT
For the last twenty years or so, BC politics has been dominated by a big-tent but leftward-trending Liberal Party whose main draw was that they weren't the incredibly unpopular NDP. Clearly, now that the NDP has rebuilt their reputation and have an emphatically popular governor, that platform could no longer hold up. I would expect there to be a lot of soul-searching in the BC opposition parties over the next few years. I thought the BC Liberals were slightly right of centre? If not who do conservative voters opt for? In much of the west provincial politics is generally a two major parties affair with the NDP as one of them and the other a big tent that draws in opponents to the right who are often in different federal parties. In British Columbia it's the BC Liberals, in Saskatchewan the Saskatchewan Party and in Manitoba the Progressive Conservatives. Rump (PC) Conservatives and/or Liberals float around in most of the provinces but with limited to no success. Alberta is a little different as it's mostly been one major party and scattered oppositions that occasionally get significant strength with a recent fracturing and reunification on the right (with the NDP having a rare one term government in the interim).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 25, 2020 22:04:08 GMT
That reminds me-I discovered the other day that the United Farmers of Alberta, one of the province's classic run-it-for-forty-years-before-imploding parties, still exists as a farmers' co-operative and retailer. There can't be many parties to have followed a similar route (IWCA's transformation into an athletics club aside!)
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 26, 2020 20:00:26 GMT
Today's the big day (or night) in Saskatchewan.
Should be - different to the Acores yesterDay - without major surprises.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,506
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Post by Foggy on Oct 26, 2020 22:27:16 GMT
Today's the big day (or night) in Saskatchewan. Should be - different to the Acores yesterDay - without major surprises. Açores or the Azores, please! That spelling without the cedilla just makes me think of Derek Acorah. Anyway, Sask tonight – the Saskatchewan Party are widely expected to win a fourth consecutive term. The federal Tories swept the province for the first time ever last year, of course. Current Premier Scott Moe doesn't seem to have quite the level of personal popularity than his immediate predecessor Brad Wall (who should probably have stood for the Conservative leadership earlier this year), but he doesn't appear to have done anything to make himself actively unpopular either. At the last two general elections, the SP have knocked out the opposition leader from the legislature, so if current NDP leader Ryan Meili can at least hold his seat, then that would constitute mild progress. The last election ended 51-10 in terms of the seat count, but the standings at dissolution were 46-13 following some by-election gains, with 2 vacancies. This time, there'll probably be a few constituencies swapping in either direction, with the NDP overall making a slight net gain to recover up to 15-17 seats. There are full slates from the main two parties, 60 Greens standings, 17 from the 'Buffalo Party', just 3 Liberals and only 3 independent candidates. The Buffaloes and the Liberal Party do not currently have full-time leaders. On top of that, it's also worth noting that the continuity Progressive Conservatives are putting up 31 candidates (the exact minimum needed for a majority government), the most they've fielded since their collapse in the 1990s. They've always maintained registration in the hope that the PC brand will once again become the standard-bearer of the right in the province once voters eventually tire of the Sask Party. In that vein, Regina Walsh Acres could be the riding to watch even if it ends up a comfortable SP hold. It's the only one without a Green candidate, the PC leader is standing there, and former NDP MLA Sandra Morin is running as an independent. This constitutes a bit of repeating history: when Morin first won in 2003, another former Dipper, Lindy Kasperksi, tried her luck with no party label... and got nowhere (well, 2.6% of the vote, to be more specific). Coverage should begin on this channel after 02:00 GMT. Federally, there are also by-elections today in two Ontario ridings. The People's Party leader is standing in York and the new Green leader in Toronto. Results will be available here in just over two hours.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,214
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 27, 2020 5:12:51 GMT
At 2.00 (British time) the PollingStations closed, only after 26 minutes the first results came in - and at 2.38 CBC called a SP-majority. So far - without the MailVotes - there is nearly no change: NDP have gained few seats, but fell even further back in %, SP after 13 years in government at 64%!
The 2 Ontario-ByElections resulted in 2 successful defences of the Liberals, but the Greens were quite strong in TorontoC, while the Tories nearly unseated them in YorkC. (Nevertheless the latter cannot be fully satisfied, as this constituency is a TopTarget.)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 27, 2020 11:46:03 GMT
The predictions that Sask would overtake Alberta as Canada's most reliably right wing state may be being borne out. Tommy Douglas, where art thou?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 27, 2020 12:14:44 GMT
The predictions that Sask would overtake Alberta as Canada's most reliably right wing state may be being borne out. Tommy Douglas, where art thou? Over 60 per cent of the vote at three consecutive elections has only been matched once, according to CBC- the Liberals under Joey Smallwood in Newfoundland after it joined the confederation. And that is even more impressive when you consider that much of Smallwood's success was built on outright intimidation of colleagues, opponents and indeed the electorate.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,506
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Post by Foggy on Nov 2, 2020 18:19:22 GMT
Speaking of Newfoundland, it appears to have changed Premier last month with nobody noticing. Dwight Ball resigned from all his political offices and was succeeded as Liberal leader and MHA for Humber–Gros Morne by Andrew Furey.
There's another by-election in the Maritimes caused by a Liberal resignation today. In the PEI district of Charlottetown-Wilmsloe, each of the main four parties is standing to replace Robert Mitchell. A Tory win would give them a majority in the provincial legislature.
In last week's federal by-elections, People's Party leader Max Bernier took just 3.56% of the vote, or 642 raw votes. The Liberal majority was 701, so he wasn't quite a spoiler in the end. As reported, the new Green leader fared better in Toronto, but still finished 2,329 votes short of the Liberal total, or 9.25% behind. Both by-elections also saw perennial candidates running — Kevin Clarke took 123 votes in Toronto, and the legendary John Turmel 104 in York.
Three of the new NDP MLAs in BC have been parachuted in from federal politics, having all chosen to stand down from the House of Commons last year. Famous ski resort Whistler is now represented by a Green. The Conservatives finished a strong second in the two Peace River ridings in the vast rural north east of the province, and got far more overall votes than the Libertarians despite fielding fewer candidates. A reason not to count by ballot box or polling district on the night: independent candidate Dennis Adamson was shown as leading early on in Fraser–Nicola. He ended up a distant fourth on 3.4% in what was ultimately a Liberal hold.
In Saskatchewan the vote share of the main two parties was almost exactly the same as in 2016, and the standings were virtually the same as at dissolution as well. The SP and NDP each took three constituencies off one another. The opposition leader didn't lose his seat this time, although it was a close-run thing. My 'riding to watch' was indeed a Sask Party hold with the independent nowhere after all. There were a few places where the Green vote was greater than the margin by which the NDP missed out, but ultimately the right got over half the vote even in the cities, and more than two thirds in the countryside, so you can hardly argue against their majority. The Buffalo Party finished a distant second in some rural seats, and received more votes than either the Greens or PCs with fewer candidates than either of those more established brands.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,044
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Post by peterl on Nov 2, 2020 23:29:03 GMT
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