right
Conservative
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Post by right on May 27, 2024 4:19:20 GMT
Are the Greens going to stand here against Corbyn? They are fishing for the same more-left-than-Labour voters and he will surely beat the Greens to them. Would Greens want a deal where they endorse him in return for him endorsing them in Brighton and Bristol? Would he do want to do that or is there too much residual loyalty to Labour? While that more or less works in Brighton or Bristol it certainly won't work in seats where the Greens are fighting the Tories. This would not just turn off direct Tory-Green switchers but it would also suppress a lot of the Lib Dem and some of the Labour switchers while doing wonders for the Tory get out the vote campaign in the affected seats. May even wrinkle a couple of new volunteers out. |
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Post by norflondon on May 27, 2024 10:28:07 GMT
The CLP here have issued a statement here on the selection of the PPC. It is searingly critical: '...no communication, egregiously undemocratic, contempt for members' x.com/IslingtonNorth/status/1794752928516841501?t=B2ZUfPqMQYmnuqZwYsscnw&s=19Denied by dictat the right of the MP, serving since 1983 to seek the candidacy again, Labour impose a candidate who runs a private health firm on the CLP...abysmal treatment! |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 27, 2024 10:50:48 GMT
No, this is not a statement from the CLP. It's a statement from the (un-named) CLP officers.
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Post by norflondon on May 27, 2024 10:56:10 GMT
Yes, fair enough. Though it IS on the official Islington N Twitter X CLP account.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 10:59:16 GMT
Are the Greens going to stand here against Corbyn? They are fishing for the same more-left-than-Labour voters and he will surely beat the Greens to them. Would Greens want a deal where they endorse him in return for him endorsing them in Brighton and Bristol? Would he do want to do that or is there too much residual loyalty to Labour? While that more or less works in Brighton or Bristol it certainly won't work in seats where the Greens are fighting the Tories. This would not just turn off direct Tory-Green switchers but it would also suppress a lot of the Lib Dem and some of the Labour switchers while doing wonders for the Tory get out the vote campaign in the affected seats. May even wrinkle a couple of new volunteers out. Though neither of the Tory-facing Green target seats are going to be remotely competitive |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2024 11:02:07 GMT
I am genuinely not sure about Waveney Valley in that respect, though it would still be a sizeable shock if the Greens actually win it.
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YL
Non-Aligned
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Post by YL on May 27, 2024 11:08:20 GMT
I don't doubt that Corbyn has a lot of support, but I wouldn't read very much into those odds. It's worth remembering that the odds didn't show much connection to reality in either Chesham & Amersham (Tories overwhelming favourites on the day before polling day) or Rochdale (disowned Labour candidate, who ended up a poor fourth, favourite for a time on polling day). At the moment, results from a comfortable Corbyn win to a comfortable Labour win wouldn't surprise me. |
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Post by norflondon on May 27, 2024 11:09:20 GMT
Deleted
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on May 27, 2024 11:14:23 GMT
Precisely what enormous services does he do for them? I imagine he is good at empathy and platitudes and possibly even sincere within those terms. But what enormous things does he actually do for them? |
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Post by Merseymike on May 27, 2024 11:25:25 GMT
Precisely what enormous services does he do for them? I imagine he is good at empathy and platitudes and possibly even sincere within those terms. But what enormous things does he actually do for them? He is also very good about letters and particularly surgeries. I have a friend , actually a moderate Tory. Her daughter had a lot of problems (anorexia) and Corbyn was excellent, helping a local clinic and so on. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 27, 2024 11:25:47 GMT
Accepting that public knowledge of Corbyn, including in his constituency, has massively changed, I think we should look at the 2005 general election in Islington North for a reality check about his local popularity. Despite his prominence as a left-wing critic of Tony Blair, the Liberal Democrats attacked him as "Blair's Labour candidate".
End result: Corbyn dropped 10.7% of the vote and won with the smallest majority he'd had since his first election (when he fought two sitting MPs who had both won as Labour). The Labour vote change was broadly in line with similar neighbbouring seats.
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batman
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Post by batman on May 27, 2024 12:14:29 GMT
Precisely what enormous services does he do for them? I imagine he is good at empathy and platitudes and possibly even sincere within those terms. But what enormous things does he actually do for them? grows enormous courgettes on his allotment |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on May 27, 2024 12:22:50 GMT
While that more or less works in Brighton or Bristol it certainly won't work in seats where the Greens are fighting the Tories. This would not just turn off direct Tory-Green switchers but it would also suppress a lot of the Lib Dem and some of the Labour switchers while doing wonders for the Tory get out the vote campaign in the affected seats. May even wrinkle a couple of new volunteers out. Though neither of the Tory-facing Green target seats are going to be remotely competitive It may be much less of an effect later, but there are lots and lots of competitive Tory-Green wards and Tory-Green switchers are on the whole, perhaps surprisingly to political obsessives, somewhat to the right of other Tory switchers. |
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Post by norflondon on May 27, 2024 13:40:27 GMT
Corbyn's loss of vote in 2005 (a rare occurrence for him) can be explained by the Labour party's march into Iraq. Although Corbyn ofc opposed the invasion of Iraq, ALL London Labour candidates suffered a loss to the LibDems who ofc opposed it.
As to what he's done is Islington:
Prevented the government from turning Archway Road into a motorway, turning a disused railway siding into a beautiful park, Gillespie Park; saving the Whittington Hospital’s A&E department. Many more...huge victories have been achieved by principled, tireless and people-powered campaigns.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 27, 2024 16:23:25 GMT
Corbyn's loss of vote in 2005 (a rare occurrence for him) can be explained by the Labour party's march into Iraq. Although Corbyn ofc opposed the invasion of Iraq, ALL London Labour candidates suffered a loss to the LibDems who ofc opposed it. As to what he's done is Islington: Prevented the government from turning Archway Road into a motorway, turning a disused railway siding into a beautiful park, Gillespie Park; saving the Whittington Hospital’s A&E department. Many more...huge victories have been achieved by principled, tireless and people-powered campaigns. Yes I think most people know that’s why Labour had those swings to the Lib Dems in London that year, the point is that going by how Corbyn’s personal popularity is played up and because he had nothing to answer for in terms of Iraq you’d think he would have avoided that swing But as already said as well he’s obviously built up a far bigger profile since then due to the spell as leader |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on May 29, 2024 19:08:44 GMT
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on May 29, 2024 19:11:14 GMT
Oooooooooh Jeremy Cooooorbyn...  |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on May 29, 2024 20:17:50 GMT
The perils of a self-selecting subsample
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john07
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Post by john07 on May 29, 2024 21:18:21 GMT
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Post by norflondon on May 29, 2024 22:13:23 GMT
Hilarious
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