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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 17, 2024 20:08:26 GMT
FWIW, Cherry Hinton was nearly a three-way tie at the parliamentary level in 2010, so it's not like the area is entirely hostile to the Lib Dems and what they stand for. They just don't make an effort in local elections, but they assuredly will in the next general election.
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steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 8:31:50 GMT
Because the local political environment has utterly changed since 2017. It's not even hard to be identify that with even a modicum of psephelogical understanding. And stop using Portsmouth South as some kind of proof of concept, it was a very simple case of the natural anti-Conservative majority in the constituency realigning enough behind a different party to beat said party (which had fallen apart in 2015, thus the Conservative win). If you want to use it as an example in this seat then the opposite to what you think the outcome should be is what will happen. There has only been one GE since 2017, and whilst it is perfectly understandable that LDs would wish to focus on the 2019 result very little insight is required to see that as a far from typical election given the factors prevalent at the time. It is entirely reasonable to focus on the pattern of results there over a longer time period. The LDs have achieved significant success at local elections - despite losing a by election to the Tories in Autumn 2022 - in an area which had been dominated by an Independent group until the early to mid-1990s. It is not clear,however, that such support translates into Parliamentary elections in that Labour's second place in both 2015 and 2017 had not been reflected in local election results. Turnout is much higher and people vote on a very different basis. The Portsmouth South result does not stand alone. On the basis of the 1992 results , seats such as Conway and Falmouth & Camborne should have been taken by the LDs in 1997 - yet both were won by Labour.
It's not just Lib Dems but supporters of other parties and none who disagree with your analysis judging by the earlier comments in the thread. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on May 23, 2024 8:43:57 GMT
There has only been one GE since 2017, and whilst it is perfectly understandable that LDs would wish to focus on the 2019 result very little insight is required to see that as a far from typical election given the factors prevalent at the time. It is entirely reasonable to focus on the pattern of results there over a longer time period. The LDs have achieved significant success at local elections - despite losing a by election to the Tories in Autumn 2022 - in an area which had been dominated by an Independent group until the early to mid-1990s. It is not clear,however, that such support translates into Parliamentary elections in that Labour's second place in both 2015 and 2017 had not been reflected in local election results. Turnout is much higher and people vote on a very different basis. The Portsmouth South result does not stand alone. On the basis of the 1992 results , seats such as Conway and Falmouth & Camborne should have been taken by the LDs in 1997 - yet both were won by Labour.
It's not just Lib Dems but supporters of other parties and none who disagree with your analysis judging by the earlier comments in the thread. I have no problem with others holding different views. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2024 8:46:53 GMT
It's not just Lib Dems but supporters of other parties and none who disagree with your analysis judging by the earlier comments in the thread. I have no problem with others holding different views. Splitters!  |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 26, 2024 12:53:24 GMT
Ed Davey here today:
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Post by casualobserver on May 26, 2024 16:28:28 GMT
LibDems have in recent years been polling far better in Local Elections than in General Elections in this area.
That made it surprising that the Conservatives beat the LibDems in South Cambridgeshire in this month’s PCC election.
I know that not all of South Cambs District is in South Cambs Constituency. I also know that not all of South Cambs Constituency is in South Cambs District……. But nevertheless the PCC result was both interesting and surprising.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2024 16:31:29 GMT
How is the Lib Dem council here generally regarded?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 26, 2024 16:49:45 GMT
LibDems have in recent years been polling far better in Local Elections than in General Elections in this area. That made it surprising that the Conservatives beat the LibDems in South Cambridgeshire in this month’s PCC election. I know that not all of South Cambs District is in South Cambs Constituency. I also know that not all of South Cambs Constituency is in South Cambs District……. But nevertheless the PCC result was both interesting and surprising. The Tories beat the Lib Dems by 171 votes in South Cambridgeshire, in a contest the Lib Dems didn't prioritise (but where Labour made more effort than they likely will in the South Cambridgeshire parliamentary seat.) Across the constituency, I'd be pretty sure the Lib Dems are ahead. Not that this is necessarily that relevant, when turnout was about a third of what it'll likely be in July. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2024 4:37:00 GMT
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD |
| Grn | | | | | | | | | 1974 | 46.2% | 26.6% | 27.0% | | | | 1974 | 46.7% | 28.8% | 24.2% | | | | 1979 | 55.0% | 26.6% | 18.4% | | | | 1983 | 53.7% | 13.8% | 32.5% | | | | 1987 | 54.8% | 15.5% | 29.6% | | | | 1992 | 54.2% | 18.3% | 25.9% | | 1.0% |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP
/BXP |
| Grn | | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 40.6% | 28.2% | 24.8% | 6.0% | | | | 2001 | 42.4% | 27.2% | 26.1% | 1.9% | | 2.4% | | 2005 | 42.5% | 22.5% | 30.5% | 2.3% | | 2.2% | | 2010 | 44.3% | 11.1% | 37.2% | 2.9% | | 1.9% | | 2015 | 48.2% | 18.5% | 18.7% | 8.7% | | 5.8% | | 2017 | 48.5% | 28.9% | 20.8% | | | 1.7% | | 2019 | 43.5% | 15.1% | 41.0% | 0.1% | | 0.2% |
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Post by carolus on Jun 7, 2024 15:06:03 GMT
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774 
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Post by john07 on Jun 7, 2024 15:20:02 GMT
What visual stunt is he expected to pull here? |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jun 7, 2024 15:34:35 GMT
What visual stunt is he expected to pull here? It was a few days ago and if my memory serves it was the unveiling of the battle bus (yellow hammer 1). |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 8, 2024 6:43:25 GMT
Full marks to the Labour candidate who has chosen to give his full address - a fairly rare thing nowadays. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on Jun 18, 2024 5:32:59 GMT
Sunak here yesterday with the battle bus.
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jul 4, 2024 23:37:22 GMT
Lib Dems claiming victory apparently.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 7, 2024 17:14:33 GMT
Pippa Heylings now has to keep the NIMBYS happy. A 10k majority with the EWR railway scheme brewing she may need that cushion. The LD's were pointing campaigners towards St Neots before the end of the campaign. Not a huge increase in her own vote, but enough combined with Reform's rise and a squeeze on Labour (who were quick at using MRP's on their literature/ social media) to see her home. www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001481 |
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