stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 20:58:11 GMT
North West Leicestershire
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Mar 20, 2024 9:04:27 GMT
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Post by matureleft on Mar 20, 2024 9:32:54 GMT
I can't see behind the paywall but he's a man who has had his share of problems, most of which he seems to have brought upon himself. The website suggests that he's running. He can be energetic. He used to have plenty of money (but he'll have quite a bit less now). And 14 years as the MP plus his local business links (severely damaged by an unpleasant dispute) will attract some support. Labour has carefully positioned itself in opposition on the local council (by their insistence on their running a minority administration they pushed the Tories and Lib Dems together) so some scope for squeezing. The small boundary changes favour Labour. Maybe.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 20, 2024 11:46:53 GMT
Bridgen's libel case against Matt Hancock is allowed to continue - Hancock's attempt to get it struck out has been refused. However he has to amend the claim because he hasn't made it clear how people would understand a tweet which didn't name him did definitely mean him: www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/KB/2024/623.pdf
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Post by johnloony on Mar 20, 2024 12:52:43 GMT
Bridgen's libel case against Matt Hancock is allowed to continue - Hancock's attempt to get it struck out has been refused. However he has to amend the claim because he hasn't made it clear how people would understand a tweet which didn't name him did definitely mean him: www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/KB/2024/623.pdfIf you ask my humble opinion, I think it’s obvious that the tweet by Hancock was referring to Bridgen. About as obvious as a stampeding ostrich accidentally crashing into a French window. It is even more obvious that it’s not even remotely libellous. About as obvious as an asthmatic ant with heavy shopping being gang-raped by a herd of rhinoceroses.
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 7, 2024 18:49:26 GMT
SOPN - Con, Lab, LD, Green, Reform UK, x1 Independent, x1 No description
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Post by matureleft on Jun 9, 2024 21:56:11 GMT
With Bridgen, a local Reform candidate and the Tories standing Labour must be in pole position here. The no-description appears to be a local parish councillor and equine podiatrist.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
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Post by bsjmcr on Jun 9, 2024 22:19:02 GMT
With Bridgen, a local Reform candidate and the Tories standing Labour must be in pole position here. The no-description appears to be a local parish councillor and equine podiatrist. I forgot Bridgen existed, let alone is standing again. Will he keep his deposit? Hard to tell what kind of constituency his views actually appeal to though as a Tory no doubt he did well for himself here.
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Post by matureleft on Jun 10, 2024 5:30:51 GMT
With Bridgen, a local Reform candidate and the Tories standing Labour must be in pole position here. The no-description appears to be a local parish councillor and equine podiatrist. I forgot Bridgen existed, let alone is standing again. Will he keep his deposit? Hard to tell what kind of constituency his views actually appeal to though as a Tory no doubt he did well for himself here. He’s been the MP for 14 years. He certainly was active, locally high-profile and had a well-funded local set-up. He’s taken some heavy personal and financial hits over the last few years though. From a quick web search he certainly appears to be running a proper campaign - plenty of social media and videos of him meeting people. The stuff he’s chosen to post suggests he’s repeating his anti-vaccination stuff and is anti-Sunak. I think he’ll beat the Williamson-type performance of a former MP standing as an independent. And he is likely to be disruptive - he’s not a quiet figure..!
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Post by adlai52 on Jun 18, 2024 11:58:07 GMT
Suspect that this seat and South Derbyshire will swing together - in the current climate both would be likely Labour gains?
Complicating factor for the Conservatives - who won a plurality at the local elections - will be Andrew Bridgen.
He appears to be running an active campaign and was - whatever his political fixations - an active constituency MP.
You would expect this to yield a few thousand votes, but with the national polls being where they are is it likely to make any difference to the result?
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 18, 2024 17:10:06 GMT
The Ipsos MRP has this seat as Lean Reform UK, with the Tories in third. It appears to ignore Independents, including Bridgen.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 5, 2024 6:38:50 GMT
I was a little surprised by this one. It’s a similar seat to South Derbyshire next door and typically swings pretty close to that. I’d expected a wider margin for Labour than there - not only a new Tory candidate (while in South Derbyshire the Tory stuck it out) but an extremely noisy Bridgen as the ex-Tory MP disrupting the campaign. He managed a non-negligible vote but still lost his deposit. Nevertheless a relatively close result.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 1, 2024 12:57:35 GMT
I was a little surprised by this one. It’s a similar seat to South Derbyshire next door and typically swings pretty close to that. I’d expected a wider margin for Labour than there - not only a new Tory candidate (while in South Derbyshire the Tory stuck it out) but an extremely noisy Bridgen as the ex-Tory MP disrupting the campaign. He managed a non-negligible vote but still lost his deposit. Nevertheless a relatively close result. Could be argued that he cost the Tories the seat. Labour won by 1,012 and Bridgen took 1,568. Had Bridgen not stood where would those votes have gone Reform or Con?
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Aug 2, 2024 14:34:30 GMT
I suspect that Reform would have been the main beneficiary of Bridgen not standing, and also that him losing his deposit was largely due to his loss of the whip and expulsion, and what led to them, no longer being live issues.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 23, 2024 8:11:30 GMT
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,359
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Sept 23, 2024 8:50:28 GMT
Quite apart from anything else, the notion that the seat was unwinnable in 2010 is quite laughable. Labour were unable to field their sitting MP, David Taylor, who had sadly died a few months before and the seat was vacant pending the general election.
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Post by Rutlander on Sept 23, 2024 9:47:54 GMT
Many members of this forum will enjoy reading the article. :-)
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 24, 2024 12:15:43 GMT
That Bridgen is attaching himself to a conspiracy theory will - I am sure - surprise ... nobody!
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Sept 24, 2024 15:44:34 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 24, 2024 15:57:33 GMT
Amusing that he genuinely expected to have a much higher personal vote than he actually had.
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