Post by John Chanin on Feb 29, 2024 11:39:07 GMT
WJ did a good profile of this seat originally, which I have referred to, but basically this is an entirely new profile by me. Since it is probably the last profile I will ever do I spent a day driving round the countryside, and walking round the towns, and wanted to sign off with a profile of my own, rather than simply updating someone else's.
Britain is not an agricultural country. Only around 2% of the population work directly in agriculture. However there is still a lot of farming in this expansive constituency, in the top 30 for agricultural jobs, and 3 times the national average. The majority of the population like most ‘rural’ constituencies, is in fact urban, but not in the form of any large town, but rather of 5 small towns with poor connections, plus a handful of overgrown villages. In many parts of the country occupants of villages are dominated by commuters. But there is no large conurbation near north Shropshire. Yes the constituency comes close to the medium sized towns of Shrewsbury and Telford to the south, but the nearest city is Stoke, and the railways run north from Shrewsbury to Wrexham and Crewe. This is emphasised by the low proportion of workers in the professional and administrative activities industrial classification. Other rural areas are dominated by retirees. Indeed North Shropshire like most rural constituencies is in the top 100 for over 65s, but the flat agricultural landscape is not attractive to tourists and those seeking retirement in pretty countryside. In summary this is a relatively remote and little known part of the country, rather insular, and self-contained.
The towns all have a long history, and like elsewhere in Shropshire some industrial history too. Market towns with quaint old centres, handsome middle-class housing, often Victorian around, and more modern development on the outskirts. But there is less new development than in many other ‘rural’ areas for the reasons given above, and the population here is fairly stable. Taking them in order of size, first is Oswestry, close by the Welsh border, with a population of 17,500. There is a hillfort to the north of the town as the landscape rises up to Wales, and Offa’s dyke passes not far to the west. The town is the only part of the constituency where routine workers exceed managerial and those with minimal qualifications exceed those with degrees, and there is a lot of council housing on the north side of the town. There is however no sign of any local vote for Labour here, although the Greens won 2 of the 3 wards at the 2021 local elections.
Market Drayton in the far south-east of the constituency has a population of 12,000 and is the closest to the M54 and transport to the West Midlands conurbation or to Stoke. It is a mundane town, less attractive than the others, with routine and managerial workers roughly equal, and the second highest proportion of social housing. Whitchurch to the north, on the edge of the Cheshire plain, close to the Maelor, has a population of 10,000 and sits on the Llangollen canal which meanders through the constituency. There are many fine old buildings in the centre, and some agricultural industry, including the production of ‘Cheshire’ cheese, and its demographics are similar to Market Drayton. Both towns are solidly Conservative at local level.
The other two towns are smaller. Wem, population 6,000, sits in the middle of the constituency, originally with a Norman motte and bailey castle. Again there is a lot of old terraced housing in the centre, and some light industry. Ellesmere, population 4,000, sits by the side of the eponymous lake, halfway between Oswestry and Whitchurch, and the Llangollen canal runs through the town. It is the only place in the constituency with a significant local Labour vote (although not enough to win). The demography of both towns is similar to Market Drayton and Whitchurch - roughly even numbers of managerial and routine workers, roughly even numbers of those with degrees and minimal qualifications, and mainly acting as service centres for the surrounding countryside.
The other half of the constituency consists of villages and farms, often remote places in deep countryside. There is some modern development at Baschurch, which is on the railway north from Shrewsbury. The bizarrely named Ruyton XI Towns is close by. On the welsh border is Llanymynech with a hillfort close by, and Offa’s dyke running through the village. In fact there are quite a few villages with welsh names in this borderland, which is hillier and more sheep farming country than arable. Shawbury, as close to Telford as the seat now gets, has a large RAF base. The rural wards as usual are much more middle class, and the whole area is represented by Conservatives at local level, but with a sizeable Liberal Democrat minority. The closest they got at the 2021 elections was in the Meres - an expansive rural ward south of Ellesmere and west of Wem, as the name suggests full of bogs and lakes, where Helen Morgan, later to fight the by-election, reduced the Conservative majority to just 23. In the boundary changes two rural wards in the south-east, south of Market Drayton, north of Newport and west of Eccleshall, with some 6,500 voters, are hived off to the Wrekin seat.
At national level this seat has always been safe for the Conservatives, but with a significant Labour minority, based on its not particularly high status. As the statistics below show, it is well below halfway on managerial jobs and degree level qualifications. The closest Labour got was in 1997 when they reduced the majority of the new Conservative candidate Owen Paterson to just 4%. The previous MP was the long serving John Biffen, former cabinet member under Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s and a shadow minister in the 1970s. He was an early eurosceptic, famously described as a semi-detached cabinet minister by Bernard Ingham, and consequently dropped after the 1987 election. Paterson also rose to cabinet level under David Cameron, a climate change sceptic at DEFRA, and a strong anti-EU campaigner. Subsequently on return to the backbenches he fell foul of the much tighter rules on behaviour, carrying out paid lobbying for a local company, without revealing his connection. He objected strenuously to his sanction for this, not seeing that he had done anything wrong, as many older MPs would have agreed. But times had changed, and after toying with rejecting the Committee on Standards punishment, Johnson decided against it, and Paterson resigned in high dudgeon, still protesting his innocence. At the subsequent by-election in December 2021, the Conservatives suffered their second setback of the parliament, the Liberal Democrats coming from nowhere to win, helped by a subterranean Labour campaign. The victor Helen Morgan was a local accountant, perhaps selected because of her near victory at the local elections earlier in the year.
Can the Liberal Democrats retain the seat at the next General Election? They do have something of a base in the countryside, and the advantage of incumbency, but it is a tough ask, as the notional figures below show. At a General Election the public has the government of the country in mind, and there is a much higher turnout of people with less interest in politics. It is much harder to squeeze Labour votes in these circumstances, even if there is no active Labour campaign. Odds must be on this seat returning to Conservative representation in circumstances anything short of national disaster. The minor boundary change will make no significant difference.
Census data: Owner-occupied 70% (180/575 in England & Wales), private rented 17% (332nd), social rented 13% (381st).
: White 97%(40th), Black 0%(501st), South Asian 0%(519th), Mixed 1%(529th), Other 1%(529th)
: Managerial & professional 35% (358th), Routine & Semi-routine 30% (227th)
: Degree 30% (345th), Minimal qualifications 28% (279th)
: Students 5% (409th), Over 65: 25% (86th)
Boundaries: The new seat is made up of 100% from North Shropshire
92% of the old seat is in the new one, with 8% going to the Wrekin
Britain is not an agricultural country. Only around 2% of the population work directly in agriculture. However there is still a lot of farming in this expansive constituency, in the top 30 for agricultural jobs, and 3 times the national average. The majority of the population like most ‘rural’ constituencies, is in fact urban, but not in the form of any large town, but rather of 5 small towns with poor connections, plus a handful of overgrown villages. In many parts of the country occupants of villages are dominated by commuters. But there is no large conurbation near north Shropshire. Yes the constituency comes close to the medium sized towns of Shrewsbury and Telford to the south, but the nearest city is Stoke, and the railways run north from Shrewsbury to Wrexham and Crewe. This is emphasised by the low proportion of workers in the professional and administrative activities industrial classification. Other rural areas are dominated by retirees. Indeed North Shropshire like most rural constituencies is in the top 100 for over 65s, but the flat agricultural landscape is not attractive to tourists and those seeking retirement in pretty countryside. In summary this is a relatively remote and little known part of the country, rather insular, and self-contained.
The towns all have a long history, and like elsewhere in Shropshire some industrial history too. Market towns with quaint old centres, handsome middle-class housing, often Victorian around, and more modern development on the outskirts. But there is less new development than in many other ‘rural’ areas for the reasons given above, and the population here is fairly stable. Taking them in order of size, first is Oswestry, close by the Welsh border, with a population of 17,500. There is a hillfort to the north of the town as the landscape rises up to Wales, and Offa’s dyke passes not far to the west. The town is the only part of the constituency where routine workers exceed managerial and those with minimal qualifications exceed those with degrees, and there is a lot of council housing on the north side of the town. There is however no sign of any local vote for Labour here, although the Greens won 2 of the 3 wards at the 2021 local elections.
Market Drayton in the far south-east of the constituency has a population of 12,000 and is the closest to the M54 and transport to the West Midlands conurbation or to Stoke. It is a mundane town, less attractive than the others, with routine and managerial workers roughly equal, and the second highest proportion of social housing. Whitchurch to the north, on the edge of the Cheshire plain, close to the Maelor, has a population of 10,000 and sits on the Llangollen canal which meanders through the constituency. There are many fine old buildings in the centre, and some agricultural industry, including the production of ‘Cheshire’ cheese, and its demographics are similar to Market Drayton. Both towns are solidly Conservative at local level.
The other two towns are smaller. Wem, population 6,000, sits in the middle of the constituency, originally with a Norman motte and bailey castle. Again there is a lot of old terraced housing in the centre, and some light industry. Ellesmere, population 4,000, sits by the side of the eponymous lake, halfway between Oswestry and Whitchurch, and the Llangollen canal runs through the town. It is the only place in the constituency with a significant local Labour vote (although not enough to win). The demography of both towns is similar to Market Drayton and Whitchurch - roughly even numbers of managerial and routine workers, roughly even numbers of those with degrees and minimal qualifications, and mainly acting as service centres for the surrounding countryside.
The other half of the constituency consists of villages and farms, often remote places in deep countryside. There is some modern development at Baschurch, which is on the railway north from Shrewsbury. The bizarrely named Ruyton XI Towns is close by. On the welsh border is Llanymynech with a hillfort close by, and Offa’s dyke running through the village. In fact there are quite a few villages with welsh names in this borderland, which is hillier and more sheep farming country than arable. Shawbury, as close to Telford as the seat now gets, has a large RAF base. The rural wards as usual are much more middle class, and the whole area is represented by Conservatives at local level, but with a sizeable Liberal Democrat minority. The closest they got at the 2021 elections was in the Meres - an expansive rural ward south of Ellesmere and west of Wem, as the name suggests full of bogs and lakes, where Helen Morgan, later to fight the by-election, reduced the Conservative majority to just 23. In the boundary changes two rural wards in the south-east, south of Market Drayton, north of Newport and west of Eccleshall, with some 6,500 voters, are hived off to the Wrekin seat.
At national level this seat has always been safe for the Conservatives, but with a significant Labour minority, based on its not particularly high status. As the statistics below show, it is well below halfway on managerial jobs and degree level qualifications. The closest Labour got was in 1997 when they reduced the majority of the new Conservative candidate Owen Paterson to just 4%. The previous MP was the long serving John Biffen, former cabinet member under Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s and a shadow minister in the 1970s. He was an early eurosceptic, famously described as a semi-detached cabinet minister by Bernard Ingham, and consequently dropped after the 1987 election. Paterson also rose to cabinet level under David Cameron, a climate change sceptic at DEFRA, and a strong anti-EU campaigner. Subsequently on return to the backbenches he fell foul of the much tighter rules on behaviour, carrying out paid lobbying for a local company, without revealing his connection. He objected strenuously to his sanction for this, not seeing that he had done anything wrong, as many older MPs would have agreed. But times had changed, and after toying with rejecting the Committee on Standards punishment, Johnson decided against it, and Paterson resigned in high dudgeon, still protesting his innocence. At the subsequent by-election in December 2021, the Conservatives suffered their second setback of the parliament, the Liberal Democrats coming from nowhere to win, helped by a subterranean Labour campaign. The victor Helen Morgan was a local accountant, perhaps selected because of her near victory at the local elections earlier in the year.
Can the Liberal Democrats retain the seat at the next General Election? They do have something of a base in the countryside, and the advantage of incumbency, but it is a tough ask, as the notional figures below show. At a General Election the public has the government of the country in mind, and there is a much higher turnout of people with less interest in politics. It is much harder to squeeze Labour votes in these circumstances, even if there is no active Labour campaign. Odds must be on this seat returning to Conservative representation in circumstances anything short of national disaster. The minor boundary change will make no significant difference.
Census data: Owner-occupied 70% (180/575 in England & Wales), private rented 17% (332nd), social rented 13% (381st).
: White 97%(40th), Black 0%(501st), South Asian 0%(519th), Mixed 1%(529th), Other 1%(529th)
: Managerial & professional 35% (358th), Routine & Semi-routine 30% (227th)
: Degree 30% (345th), Minimal qualifications 28% (279th)
: Students 5% (409th), Over 65: 25% (86th)
Boundaries: The new seat is made up of 100% from North Shropshire
92% of the old seat is in the new one, with 8% going to the Wrekin
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | 2021 by-election | % | Notional | % | |
| Conservative | 33,642 | 60.5 | 35,444 | 62.7 | 12,032 | 31.6 | 32,248 | 61.7 |
| Labour | 17,287 | 31.1 | 12,495 | 22.1 | 3,686 | 9.7 | 11,705 | 22.4 |
| Liberal Democrat | 2,948 | 5.3 | 5,643 | 10.0 | 17,957 | 47.2 | 5,458 | 10.4 |
| Reform & UKIP | 1,805 | 4.7 | ||||||
| Green | 1,722 | 3.1 | 1,790 | 3.2 | 1,738 | 4.6 | 1,719 | 3.3 |
| Others (8) | 1,141 | 2.0 | 804 | 2.1 | 1,141 | 2.2 | ||
| Majority | 16,355 | 29.4 | 22,949 | 40.6 | -5,925 | -15.6 | 20,543 | 39.3 |
where I was raised!