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Post by johnloony on Feb 12, 2024 14:57:26 GMT
I'm expecting this to be a fairly comfortable Green gain at the general election. 2017 and 2019 both had some consolidation of the left wing vote around Labour, but this has the feeling of being one of the few seats in the country where people may have preferred Corbyn to Starmer as Labour leader. Add on the local election success and the Greens focusing a lot of their national campaign resources here, and a comfortable gain seems likely. Wouldn't even surprise me if they gain this whilst losing Brighton Pavilion. Just because it would be interesting or exciting psephologically or statistically doesn't mean it's realistic or likely. |
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Post by batman on Feb 12, 2024 18:56:05 GMT
Don't know if you're aware of Philip Cowley's warning of the dangers of low N in analysing issues like this. The only changes of government from general elections since 1979 have been 1997 and 2010. Labour didn't lose any seats in 1997, but the Conservatives lost two sitting MPs in 2010 - both to the Liberal Democrats. Nigel Waterson (Eastbourne) and David Heathcoat-Amory (Wells) were the unlucky two. If you count February 1974, Labour lost quite a few sitting MPs though most were through effects of the boundary change and rise of Liberals. SNP and Plaid Cymru. Nigel Spearing (Ealing Acton) and John Mackintosh (Berwick and East Lothian) were fairly clear-cut cases of the same constituency going from Labour to Conservative. In 1970 the Conservatives didn't lose any seats other than byelection gains. In 1964 there was the infamous case of Smethwick, but also three others: Birmingham Perry Barr (Charles Howell), Eton and Slough (Fenner Brockway), and South West Norfolk (Albert Hilton). In 1945, the incoming Labour government lost Stepney Mile End and Carmarthen to the Communist Party and the Liberal Party respectively. the Communist winner in Mile End being Phil Piratin, who knew my mum & was kind enough to take me to a football match on my 14th birthday. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 12, 2024 19:54:01 GMT
In 1945, the incoming Labour government lost Stepney Mile End and Carmarthen to the Communist Party and the Liberal Party respectively. the Communist winner in Mile End being Phil Piratin, who knew my mum & was kind enough to take me to a football match on my 14th birthday. wow genuinely what an awesome story |
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Post by batman on Feb 12, 2024 20:11:19 GMT
It was actually the only time I met him. He was a Chelsea season ticket holder. I was supporting the visitors Manchester United, who won. However, Chelsea stayed up & we went down - only for the two teams to cross each other the other way the next season as Chelsea went down & United back up again, permanently to date.
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 12, 2024 21:29:58 GMT
It was actually the only time I met him. He was a Chelsea season ticket holder. I was supporting the visitors Manchester United, who won. However, Chelsea stayed up & we went down - only for the two teams to cross each other the other way the next season as Chelsea went down & United back up again, permanently to date. I feel like I'm in a Michael Morpurgo story |
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It used to be Vote 2006
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Post by It used to be Vote 2006 on Feb 13, 2024 12:53:19 GMT
How many previous cases have there been of the opposition winning a general election and going on to form government whilst losing a seat which was already held by that party and with the incumbent standing again? Excluding by-elections gains not retained it looks like not many at all. Teddy Taylor in 1979 would seem to be the most recent. in analysing issues like this. The only changes of government from general elections since 1979 have been 1997 and 2010. Labour didn't lose any seats in 1997, but the Conservatives lost two sitting MPs in 2010 - both to the Liberal Democrats. Nigel Waterson (Eastbourne) and David Heathcoat-Amory (Wells) were the unlucky two. If you count February 1974, Labour lost quite a few sitting MPs though most were through effects of the boundary change and rise of Liberals. SNP and Plaid Cymru. Nigel Spearing (Ealing Acton) and John Mackintosh (Berwick and East Lothian) were fairly clear-cut cases of the same constituency going from Labour to Conservative. In 1970 the Conservatives didn't lose any seats other than byelection gains. In 1964 there was the infamous case of Smethwick, but also three others: Birmingham Perry Barr (Charles Howell), Eton and Slough (Fenner Brockway), and South West Norfolk (Albert Hilton). I hadn't considered that, but can see I obviously should have.
Embarassing to miss the 2010 cases too. I suspect I may have mentally filed them under 'seats changing hands between parties which both formed the incoming government', thus making a (decidedly weak) case that they were somehow not 'really' losses, but intra-coalition swaps!
I was aware of Smethwick (who here isn't?) and nearly included it as another example. The others in 1964 are much less familiar. Any specific explanations for those results? Might Perry Barr have been a knock-on effect from Smethwick? Was Brockway targeted as a high-profile figure? Norfolk could've been because of something happening in the agricultural sector, though I'm not sure what.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 13, 2024 13:08:40 GMT
I think I recall a claim in his obituaries that in 1964 Brockway rather took his own seat for granted (despite his tiny 1959 majority) and went spreading his trademark "peace" message across the country instead - meanwhile his youngish Tory opponent Anthony Meyer (yes, that one) fought a quite skilful campaign.
As many psephologists of a certain age know, the Norfolk county seats often used to "do different" in elections (until the 1970 GE anyway, since which they have behaved much like any other bit of rural England)
Labour's results in the West Midlands were generally a bit patchy in 1964, Smethwick was the most extreme example but far from a total aberration.
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 13, 2024 13:15:45 GMT
Norfolk was rural depopulation, as the agricultural sector modernized after the second world war. Mechanization and intensification meant the large agricultural labourer population suffered redundancy and eviction from their tied cottages, and perforce left for the towns. Norfolk actually lost a seat in the redistribution that eventually came into effect in 1974, contrary to our assumptions that rural areas always see gains. The agricultural labourers, organized through the National Union of Agricultural Workers, voted Labour.
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It used to be Vote 2006
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Post by It used to be Vote 2006 on Feb 13, 2024 13:40:11 GMT
In 1945, the incoming Labour government lost Stepney Mile End and Carmarthen to the Communist Party and the Liberal Party respectively. the Communist winner in Mile End being Phil Piratin, who knew my mum & was kind enough to take me to a football match on my 14th birthday. (With apologies for consecutive posts)
For some reason I'd thought Piratin was an expelled Labour MP who sought re-election under new colours....... then that I had confused him with members of the Labour Independent Group. But they were slightly later and none were re-elected under that label. I came to the conclusion that I was actually thinking of D.N. Pritt (Hammersmith North), who had something of a sui generis trajectory.
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Post by borisminor on Feb 13, 2024 13:59:37 GMT
I think I recall a claim in his obituaries that in 1964 Brockway rather took his own seat for granted (despite his tiny 1959 majority) and went spreading his trademark "peace" message across the country instead - meanwhile his youngish Tory opponent Anthony Meyer (yes, that one) fought a quite skilful campaign. As many psephologists of a certain age know, the Norfolk county seats often used to "do different" in elections (until the 1970 GE anyway, since which they have behaved much like any other bit of rural England) Labour's results in the West Midlands were generally a bit patchy in 1964, Smethwick was the most extreme example but far from a total aberration. Birmingham Perry Barr, Eton and Slough and Smethwick were the Conservative gains that can be clearly linked to immigration (it also had an effect due to anti-immigration independents in safe Labour seats Deptford and Southall). The swing in Eton and Slough was 0.1% with a 11 vote majority. Labour figures were still thinking that a downpour on the day cost them that seat, and missing out on gaining Reading. I don't think Brockway was popular in his own seat either his internationalist message didn't fare well against the general politics of the day. |
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It used to be Vote 2006
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Post by It used to be Vote 2006 on Jul 17, 2024 9:45:07 GMT
How many previous cases have there been of the opposition winning a general election and going on to form government whilst losing a seat which was already held by that party and with the incumbent standing again?
Well, this scenario came to pass here (and in quite a few other places!). So no longer a rarity.
Indeed maybe one of the defining retrospective 'headlines' for 2024 (along with 'there's no safe seats anymore') will be 'an incoming govt can still lose seats even in a landslide'.
Can't imagine what the 1997 equivalents would be in terms of either seats or indeed issues that would make them vulnerable. Where (if anywhere) would've been the Leicester East of those days?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 17, 2024 12:18:26 GMT
I have mentioned before that opposition parties did target a few Labour seats in 1997 - Glasgow Govan/Kilmarnock/Ochil for the SNP, the redrawn Carmarthen seat for Plaid Cymru, Chesterfield (and maybe a few others) for the LibDems. What *is* true is that there were next to no Labour to Tory swings in that election.
That election was also quite unusual in seeing *no* winning party losses at all. Labour did lose a few in 1945 and 1966, likewise the Tories in 1983 and 2019.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 17, 2024 14:27:38 GMT
Norfolk was rural depopulation, as the agricultural sector modernized after the second world war. Mechanization and intensification meant the large agricultural labourer population suffered redundancy and eviction from their tied cottages, and perforce left for the towns. Norfolk actually lost a seat in the redistribution that eventually came into effect in 1974, contrary to our assumptions that rural areas always see gains. The agricultural labourers, organized through the National Union of Agricultural Workers, voted Labour. The loss of farm workers was very apparent in voting trends in Norfolk but not in other agricultural areas. That was because the farm workers and their union were left-wing in Norfolk and less so elsewhere. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 17, 2024 14:31:34 GMT
Well it had an impact elsewhere but not quite so dramatically: it just meant that substantial Conservative majorities slowly became bigger and bigger, whereas in Norfolk it meant that tight marginals became safe Conservative seats. It was also an important factor in county towns and cathedral cities becoming better territory for Labour, rather like how so much of the old Labour vote in North West Wales moved to Chester and Deeside.
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Post by therealriga on Jul 17, 2024 15:08:31 GMT
I have mentioned before that opposition parties did target a few Labour seats in 1997 - Glasgow Govan/Kilmarnock/Ochil for the SNP, the redrawn Carmarthen seat for Plaid Cymru, Chesterfield (and maybe a few others) for the LibDems. What *is* true is that there were next to no Labour to Tory swings in that election.I think Bradford West was the only one though maybe Bethnal Green & Stepney is another? (I can't find the notional swing figures.) |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 17, 2024 15:34:24 GMT
I have mentioned before that opposition parties did target a few Labour seats in 1997 - Glasgow Govan/Kilmarnock/Ochil for the SNP, the redrawn Carmarthen seat for Plaid Cymru, Chesterfield (and maybe a few others) for the LibDems. What *is* true is that there were next to no Labour to Tory swings in that election.I think Bradford West was the only one though maybe Bethnal Green & Stepney is another? (I can't find the notional swing figures.) 1992 notional results are available on my 1997 election night running totals spreadsheet. Sheet 2, on the far right-hand side, has the swing from Con to Lab, ordered. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VFEP_uEtQqwqa-QM5VFGOqfVIqStvztjoSrPgxjXu6A/edit?gid=0#gid=0 |
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Post by batman on Jul 17, 2024 16:01:05 GMT
I have mentioned before that opposition parties did target a few Labour seats in 1997 - Glasgow Govan/Kilmarnock/Ochil for the SNP, the redrawn Carmarthen seat for Plaid Cymru, Chesterfield (and maybe a few others) for the LibDems. What *is* true is that there were next to no Labour to Tory swings in that election.I think Bradford West was the only one though maybe Bethnal Green & Stepney is another? (I can't find the notional swing figures.) there was a swing from Labour to Conservative in Bethnal Green & Bow (as the seat was called then). It became Bethnal Green & Stepney for this election. (Bow is now in the new Stratford & Bow seat.) |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jul 17, 2024 17:01:07 GMT
Well it had an impact elsewhere but not quite so dramatically: it just meant that substantial Conservative majorities slowly became bigger and bigger, whereas in Norfolk it meant that tight marginals became safe Conservative seats. Barring particularly embarrassing individuals representing them. |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 17, 2024 20:52:12 GMT
I have mentioned before that opposition parties did target a few Labour seats in 1997 - Glasgow Govan/Kilmarnock/Ochil for the SNP, the redrawn Carmarthen seat for Plaid Cymru, Chesterfield (and maybe a few others) for the LibDems. What *is* true is that there were next to no Labour to Tory swings in that election. That election was also quite unusual in seeing *no* winning party losses at all. Labour did lose a few in 1945 and 1966, likewise the Tories in 1983 and 2019. The SNP candidate on that occasion of course went on to higher things... |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 17, 2024 20:59:18 GMT
I have mentioned before that opposition parties did target a few Labour seats in 1997 - Glasgow Govan/Kilmarnock/Ochil for the SNP, the redrawn Carmarthen seat for Plaid Cymru, Chesterfield (and maybe a few others) for the LibDems. What *is* true is that there were next to no Labour to Tory swings in that election. That election was also quite unusual in seeing *no* winning party losses at all. Labour did lose a few in 1945 and 1966, likewise the Tories in 1983 and 2019. The SNP candidate on that occasion of course went on to higher things... -2% 
The 1992 candidate was Jim Sillars.
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