Post by iainbhx on Jan 31, 2024 21:46:00 GMT
This is very much based on the West Bromwich East profile of iang
In the previous version of this profile which was for West Bromwich East. iang described West Bromwich Eaat as being a game of two halves. The new West Bromwich BC is more like an American Football game and divided into four quarters and with a lot less West Bromwich feel to it. It retains five wards, the three Great Barr wards (Great Barr with Yew Tree, Charlemont with Grove Vale and Newton) and two of the core West Bromwich wards (West Bromwich Central, Greets Green with Lyng). Gone are Hateley Heath and Friar Park to the new Tipton & Wednesbury BC, Friar Park always feels more Wednesbury but Hateley Heath is core West Brom and in comes Tividale and Oldbury from the rebadged West Bromwich West and Rowley from the largely changed Halesowen and Rowley Regis BC. None of these three are particularly West Bromwich wards, in fact of the eight wards only two could really be described as core West Bromwich. Given that the seat is a long strip across the People’s Republic of Sandwell, perhaps it might have been better named Mid Sandwell.
This seats predecessor is West Bromwich East and before that the original West Bromwich. The old West Bromwich purely consisted of the County Borough before the West Midlands Order was passed - so without Tipton or Wednesbury, So the Great Barr wards and the West Bromwich wards. With the hardly unusual exception of 1931, it was held by Labour from 1918 to its demise in 1974. First by Frederick Roberts, then by John Dugdale and Maurice Foley, none of them made any great impression locally. The seat was fairly safe, but the Great Barr wards made it never entirely safe and the racialization of politics in the area in the 1960’s made it less safe, the majority was down to just over 4,000 when Maurice Foley went to Europe and then there was the 1973 by-election. Betty Boothroyd was elected and it turned out to be quite an easy election where much of the attention was given to Enoch Powell’s refusal to back the Conservative candidate. With an unpopular Tory government, the Labour victory was almost certain, but Martin Webster of the National Front saved his deposit by getting 16.2% of the vote.
Betty Boothroyd only served the area for a year, with West Bromwich being split into two, she went for West Bromwich West, Cheshire railwayman Peter Snape took West Bromwich East which was the more marginal of the two. Snape, a somewhat acerbic MP, successfully defended the seat but never had a large majority before 1997 but he had a certain fanclub and managed to increase his majority each time from 298 in 1983. to 983 in 1987 and 2,813 in 1992. Snape got a 13,584 majority with turnout drop of 10% and a 13.5% swing in 1997. In the Blair years, West Bromwich East was safe, partly because the Great Barr anti-Labour vote was split between Con and LibDem and the handover to Tom Watson was fairly easy. Watson was good at playing the communalist games that win elections in some parts of Sandwell and wasn’t under any threat in any of his elections, his worst result was in 2010. However, whilst he won convincingly in 2017, the anti-labour vote concentrated behind the Conservative, who achieved 38.2%. their highest figure since 1992.
This meant that it was vulnerable to a large Brexit-related swing as all parts of the seat clearly voted for Brexit, West Brom perhaps a little less than Great Barr but not by much. Similarly, the choice of Labour candidate to replace Tom Watson, a Muslim in a seat where the largest minority religion is Sikhism, not a Kashmiri or a Bangladeshi but a Kurd and worst of all from that London place. Labour got the lowest numerical vote ever in the seat as people either switched to another party or stayed at home. Labour lost over 7,000 votes but the Tories who won didn’t even put on 2,000 - but it was enough for them to win a West Brom seat for the first time since 1931, but not a ringing endorsement. The new MP Nicola Richards is from Kingswinford, attended King Edward VI Stourbridge and was a Dudley councillor, which is probably better than being a Sandwell councillor given the reputation of the council.
The new seat is different to the old seat, two wards have gone and been replaced by three other wards, different wards, two of them somewhat more BAME and overall probably slightly more Labour than what has left the seat. However, the addition of Tividale will to an extent counter balance that. The Great Barr wards and Tividale will balance out the other four wards making the seat in the long term more of a marginal that West Bromwich East is. However, it remains a very working class seat and one where ethnic and religious minorities play an increasing role in the national politics of the seat. I would assume that the three Great Barr wards, Rowley and Tividale voted Tory in the 2019 GE and that the Tories did very well and may have won in West Bromwich Central and Oldbury and that they lost Greets Green and Lyng. However I would also assume the Great Barr turnout was higher than that the other wards which would make a difference and probably swung it for the Tories.
To quickly go through the wards:
Great Barr with Yew Tree. As expected from the name, there are two parts to this seat, Great Barr itself north of the Scott Arms which is pretty salubrious housing with good access links into Birmingham or Walsall (and not so good ones to West Brom) and Yew Tree which is on the west side of the Rushall Canal and is fairly hard to access from Great Barr, the eastern half of the Yew Tree is mainly social housing. Again this was a strong ward for the LibDems but that has now gone and it is contested between Labour and Conservative with the Tories only winning in their wave year of 2021. The ward currently has 2 Labour and 1 Conservative councillor. This is a majority White ward 55.1%,. 29.5% are South Asian and 7.5% Black, 40.3% are Christian, 16.8% Sikh and 8.4% Muslim, 17% social rented, 22% with no qualifications and 27.2% in semi-routine and routine work.
Charlemont with Grove Vale. Charlemont and Grove Vale is a suburban ward that is split by the M5/M6 triangle - Charlemont lies to the West of that junction Grove Vale to the east, it also include the most northern part of the Sandwell Valley Country Park. It is probably the most consistently Conservative part of Sandwell, having been Tory through to the 1990, when the LibDems won the seat for eight years, then Tory again from 2002 to 2012, then Labour and since 2021 it has returned Conservatives. There was a decent sized BNP, then UKIP vote here, but they never really challenged. It’s a mainly prosperous upper working class/ lower middle class ward with a lot of semis and not that much social housing for Sandwell. The ward currently has 3 Conservative councillors. This is a majority White ward 61.2%, 24.5% are South Asian, 6.8% Black. 16.6% Sikh, 5.7% Muslim, 19% socially rented, 25% with no qualifications and 28.5% in semi-routine and routine work
Newton I always think this should be called Hamstead, although Hamstead proper is split between Sandwell and Birmingham, it’s mainly owner occupied semis with some social housing on the south side of the Hamstead Road, its pretty much totally residential or green space and was once the Liberal/LibDem stronghold in the area but that declined post the death of Martin Smith and with the coalition. The ward currently has 3 Labour councillors. Newton is just majority white at 51.3%, South Asian at 26.4% and Black at 13.4%. 12.8% Sikh and 9.4% Muslim. 13% socially rentals, 24% with no qualifications and 27.6% in semi-routine and routine work.
West Bromwich Central. This contains the commercial centre of West Bromwich which is not what art was even 20 years ago, but is still fairly busy, it also contain much of the extensive Sandwell Valley Country Park and the Sandwell General Hospital - the fate of which being a local issue of concern when Midland Met opens in Smethwick. It also contains the Vine, one of the earlier and more reliable Desi pubs and usually my main reason for visiting this ward. Whilst mainly working class there are some fairly middle class and affluent areas around Dartmouth Park, of course this can mean Sikh middle class such as the newish private estate around Europa Avenue which is 70% Sikh which are nor so reliable for the Tories. It is majority minority with South Asians being the largest group with 44.7% of the population, Whites at 34.9% and Blacks at 9.6%.30.9% Christian, 21.1% Sikh and 17.9% Muslim..34% are Socially rented, 31% with no qualifications, 32.9% in semi-routine and routine work.
Greets Green and Lyng - apart from a small corner around Kenrick Park, this is West Brom west of the old GWR main line which is now part of the Midland Metro, it lies between that line and the Stour Valley railway line. Greets Green is tucked in the North West corner with Swan Village in he North East corner, much of the west of the ward is industrial land, the old Albion area, some of it is now industrial estates, the rest is awaiting redevelopment. There’s small commercial area in Greets Green including a couple of really dodgy desi pubs. It has returned 3 Labour councillors all century, both UKIP and the BNP got decent votes here when they ran but nothing even close, It is minority majority, although White is the largest group at 41.2%, South Asians just behind at 38.9% and a significant black majority, it’s 23.4% Muslim and 12.6% Sikh. 35% socially rented 34% with no qualifications and 35% in semi-routine or routine work.
Oldbury, of course, is the civic centre of the benighted Sandwell MBC although Oldbury ward which is sandwiched between the Birmingham New Road and the Stour Valley Line also contains quite a lot of Tividale including the very optimistically named Tividale Quays development as it stretches right up to the Burnt Tree. Oldbury has a distinct identity of its very own which is not West Brom, it was of course in Shropshire and then in Worcestershire and then in Warley CB and as well as the civic centre it has a commercial centre. It has returned three Labour councillors all of this century and neither UKIP or the BNP made much impact here, it may have voted Labour in 2019, but it also may not have done. Oldbury is minority-majority these days, White are still the largest group at 43%, but the South Asian population is now 37% and there is also quite a large Black Minority, 18.6% Sikh and 15.2% Muslim, 19% socially rented, 28% with no qualifications and 32.4% in semi-routine or routine work.
Tividale ward, contains about two thirds of what I’d call Tividale with the largest part being the Grace Mary estate climbing up the Rowley Hills to Oakham, Oakham is more middle class than the grim Grace Mary estate and has excellent views over the Black Country which I enjoyed when visiting my late father who was in a BUPA nursing home in Oakham. The difference between the two is that a 4 bed ex-council semi on the Grace Mary is about 200k, a 4 bed private semi up in Oakham which is not even a kilometre away is 400k. Portway Hill, a green space around an abandoned quarry separates the majority of Tivvy ward from a small social housing estate which really should be in Oldbury which includes the somewhat notorious high rise of Darley House as well as some low rise flats. Most of Tividale was originally in Tipton MB and it shows, trust me, it very much shows. Like Tipton, Tivvy has a liking for populist or far right politics, the BNP won it in 2006 and UKIP came close in 2014 and 2015, it currently has 1 Conservative and 2 elected as Labour councillors and is highly marginal, it almost certainly voted Tory in 2019 and would probably be fairly close in a GE even with current polling. Tividale is 72% White with substantial South Asian and Black minorities, 7.1 Sikh 5.3% Muslim, 23% socially rented, 26% with no qualifications and 33.5% in semi-routine or routine work.
Rowley - the main thing you'll notice about Rowley is that it is hilly, the heavily quarried downslope of the Oakham ridge comes down into Rowley and on the west there is Warren's Hall and to the south there is Hawne Hill. Council houses, or rather in most cases former council houses hang off then, not quite at Welsh valleys levels, but not far off. Rowley Regis is in the far west of the ward, or at least part of it, Rowley village is in the far south of the ward, or at least part of it is. Rowley Regis railway station is well outside of the ward and really in Blackheath. They also like osses here, like the folks of part of Dublin, it is not unusual to find a pony grazing on a roundabout or in someone's front yard. Whilst Rowley is working class and probably the majority of the houses here are former or current council houses, it's always had a strong Tory vote and undoubtedly voted for them in 2019. It currently has 2 Labour councillors and 1 Independent elected as Conservative councillor. It is 81.6% White with only 8.8 South Asian, 4.8 Muslim, 3.3% Sikh, 25% socially rented, 26% with no qualifications and 34.3% in semi-routine or routine work.
The sitting MP for West Bromwich East - Nicola Richards has decided not to stand for the new seat and doesn’t appear to be looking elsewhere for nomination - although I'm informed she's been seen in Solihull. At the time of writing (late Jan 2024) she has not yet been replaced, Labour have selected as have the Reform UK party, perhaps the lateness of the Conservative selection shows that they realise that it is likely to revert to Labour. How safe it will be for them is another question.
In the previous version of this profile which was for West Bromwich East. iang described West Bromwich Eaat as being a game of two halves. The new West Bromwich BC is more like an American Football game and divided into four quarters and with a lot less West Bromwich feel to it. It retains five wards, the three Great Barr wards (Great Barr with Yew Tree, Charlemont with Grove Vale and Newton) and two of the core West Bromwich wards (West Bromwich Central, Greets Green with Lyng). Gone are Hateley Heath and Friar Park to the new Tipton & Wednesbury BC, Friar Park always feels more Wednesbury but Hateley Heath is core West Brom and in comes Tividale and Oldbury from the rebadged West Bromwich West and Rowley from the largely changed Halesowen and Rowley Regis BC. None of these three are particularly West Bromwich wards, in fact of the eight wards only two could really be described as core West Bromwich. Given that the seat is a long strip across the People’s Republic of Sandwell, perhaps it might have been better named Mid Sandwell.
This seats predecessor is West Bromwich East and before that the original West Bromwich. The old West Bromwich purely consisted of the County Borough before the West Midlands Order was passed - so without Tipton or Wednesbury, So the Great Barr wards and the West Bromwich wards. With the hardly unusual exception of 1931, it was held by Labour from 1918 to its demise in 1974. First by Frederick Roberts, then by John Dugdale and Maurice Foley, none of them made any great impression locally. The seat was fairly safe, but the Great Barr wards made it never entirely safe and the racialization of politics in the area in the 1960’s made it less safe, the majority was down to just over 4,000 when Maurice Foley went to Europe and then there was the 1973 by-election. Betty Boothroyd was elected and it turned out to be quite an easy election where much of the attention was given to Enoch Powell’s refusal to back the Conservative candidate. With an unpopular Tory government, the Labour victory was almost certain, but Martin Webster of the National Front saved his deposit by getting 16.2% of the vote.
Betty Boothroyd only served the area for a year, with West Bromwich being split into two, she went for West Bromwich West, Cheshire railwayman Peter Snape took West Bromwich East which was the more marginal of the two. Snape, a somewhat acerbic MP, successfully defended the seat but never had a large majority before 1997 but he had a certain fanclub and managed to increase his majority each time from 298 in 1983. to 983 in 1987 and 2,813 in 1992. Snape got a 13,584 majority with turnout drop of 10% and a 13.5% swing in 1997. In the Blair years, West Bromwich East was safe, partly because the Great Barr anti-Labour vote was split between Con and LibDem and the handover to Tom Watson was fairly easy. Watson was good at playing the communalist games that win elections in some parts of Sandwell and wasn’t under any threat in any of his elections, his worst result was in 2010. However, whilst he won convincingly in 2017, the anti-labour vote concentrated behind the Conservative, who achieved 38.2%. their highest figure since 1992.
This meant that it was vulnerable to a large Brexit-related swing as all parts of the seat clearly voted for Brexit, West Brom perhaps a little less than Great Barr but not by much. Similarly, the choice of Labour candidate to replace Tom Watson, a Muslim in a seat where the largest minority religion is Sikhism, not a Kashmiri or a Bangladeshi but a Kurd and worst of all from that London place. Labour got the lowest numerical vote ever in the seat as people either switched to another party or stayed at home. Labour lost over 7,000 votes but the Tories who won didn’t even put on 2,000 - but it was enough for them to win a West Brom seat for the first time since 1931, but not a ringing endorsement. The new MP Nicola Richards is from Kingswinford, attended King Edward VI Stourbridge and was a Dudley councillor, which is probably better than being a Sandwell councillor given the reputation of the council.
The new seat is different to the old seat, two wards have gone and been replaced by three other wards, different wards, two of them somewhat more BAME and overall probably slightly more Labour than what has left the seat. However, the addition of Tividale will to an extent counter balance that. The Great Barr wards and Tividale will balance out the other four wards making the seat in the long term more of a marginal that West Bromwich East is. However, it remains a very working class seat and one where ethnic and religious minorities play an increasing role in the national politics of the seat. I would assume that the three Great Barr wards, Rowley and Tividale voted Tory in the 2019 GE and that the Tories did very well and may have won in West Bromwich Central and Oldbury and that they lost Greets Green and Lyng. However I would also assume the Great Barr turnout was higher than that the other wards which would make a difference and probably swung it for the Tories.
To quickly go through the wards:
Great Barr with Yew Tree. As expected from the name, there are two parts to this seat, Great Barr itself north of the Scott Arms which is pretty salubrious housing with good access links into Birmingham or Walsall (and not so good ones to West Brom) and Yew Tree which is on the west side of the Rushall Canal and is fairly hard to access from Great Barr, the eastern half of the Yew Tree is mainly social housing. Again this was a strong ward for the LibDems but that has now gone and it is contested between Labour and Conservative with the Tories only winning in their wave year of 2021. The ward currently has 2 Labour and 1 Conservative councillor. This is a majority White ward 55.1%,. 29.5% are South Asian and 7.5% Black, 40.3% are Christian, 16.8% Sikh and 8.4% Muslim, 17% social rented, 22% with no qualifications and 27.2% in semi-routine and routine work.
Charlemont with Grove Vale. Charlemont and Grove Vale is a suburban ward that is split by the M5/M6 triangle - Charlemont lies to the West of that junction Grove Vale to the east, it also include the most northern part of the Sandwell Valley Country Park. It is probably the most consistently Conservative part of Sandwell, having been Tory through to the 1990, when the LibDems won the seat for eight years, then Tory again from 2002 to 2012, then Labour and since 2021 it has returned Conservatives. There was a decent sized BNP, then UKIP vote here, but they never really challenged. It’s a mainly prosperous upper working class/ lower middle class ward with a lot of semis and not that much social housing for Sandwell. The ward currently has 3 Conservative councillors. This is a majority White ward 61.2%, 24.5% are South Asian, 6.8% Black. 16.6% Sikh, 5.7% Muslim, 19% socially rented, 25% with no qualifications and 28.5% in semi-routine and routine work
Newton I always think this should be called Hamstead, although Hamstead proper is split between Sandwell and Birmingham, it’s mainly owner occupied semis with some social housing on the south side of the Hamstead Road, its pretty much totally residential or green space and was once the Liberal/LibDem stronghold in the area but that declined post the death of Martin Smith and with the coalition. The ward currently has 3 Labour councillors. Newton is just majority white at 51.3%, South Asian at 26.4% and Black at 13.4%. 12.8% Sikh and 9.4% Muslim. 13% socially rentals, 24% with no qualifications and 27.6% in semi-routine and routine work.
West Bromwich Central. This contains the commercial centre of West Bromwich which is not what art was even 20 years ago, but is still fairly busy, it also contain much of the extensive Sandwell Valley Country Park and the Sandwell General Hospital - the fate of which being a local issue of concern when Midland Met opens in Smethwick. It also contains the Vine, one of the earlier and more reliable Desi pubs and usually my main reason for visiting this ward. Whilst mainly working class there are some fairly middle class and affluent areas around Dartmouth Park, of course this can mean Sikh middle class such as the newish private estate around Europa Avenue which is 70% Sikh which are nor so reliable for the Tories. It is majority minority with South Asians being the largest group with 44.7% of the population, Whites at 34.9% and Blacks at 9.6%.30.9% Christian, 21.1% Sikh and 17.9% Muslim..34% are Socially rented, 31% with no qualifications, 32.9% in semi-routine and routine work.
Greets Green and Lyng - apart from a small corner around Kenrick Park, this is West Brom west of the old GWR main line which is now part of the Midland Metro, it lies between that line and the Stour Valley railway line. Greets Green is tucked in the North West corner with Swan Village in he North East corner, much of the west of the ward is industrial land, the old Albion area, some of it is now industrial estates, the rest is awaiting redevelopment. There’s small commercial area in Greets Green including a couple of really dodgy desi pubs. It has returned 3 Labour councillors all century, both UKIP and the BNP got decent votes here when they ran but nothing even close, It is minority majority, although White is the largest group at 41.2%, South Asians just behind at 38.9% and a significant black majority, it’s 23.4% Muslim and 12.6% Sikh. 35% socially rented 34% with no qualifications and 35% in semi-routine or routine work.
Oldbury, of course, is the civic centre of the benighted Sandwell MBC although Oldbury ward which is sandwiched between the Birmingham New Road and the Stour Valley Line also contains quite a lot of Tividale including the very optimistically named Tividale Quays development as it stretches right up to the Burnt Tree. Oldbury has a distinct identity of its very own which is not West Brom, it was of course in Shropshire and then in Worcestershire and then in Warley CB and as well as the civic centre it has a commercial centre. It has returned three Labour councillors all of this century and neither UKIP or the BNP made much impact here, it may have voted Labour in 2019, but it also may not have done. Oldbury is minority-majority these days, White are still the largest group at 43%, but the South Asian population is now 37% and there is also quite a large Black Minority, 18.6% Sikh and 15.2% Muslim, 19% socially rented, 28% with no qualifications and 32.4% in semi-routine or routine work.
Tividale ward, contains about two thirds of what I’d call Tividale with the largest part being the Grace Mary estate climbing up the Rowley Hills to Oakham, Oakham is more middle class than the grim Grace Mary estate and has excellent views over the Black Country which I enjoyed when visiting my late father who was in a BUPA nursing home in Oakham. The difference between the two is that a 4 bed ex-council semi on the Grace Mary is about 200k, a 4 bed private semi up in Oakham which is not even a kilometre away is 400k. Portway Hill, a green space around an abandoned quarry separates the majority of Tivvy ward from a small social housing estate which really should be in Oldbury which includes the somewhat notorious high rise of Darley House as well as some low rise flats. Most of Tividale was originally in Tipton MB and it shows, trust me, it very much shows. Like Tipton, Tivvy has a liking for populist or far right politics, the BNP won it in 2006 and UKIP came close in 2014 and 2015, it currently has 1 Conservative and 2 elected as Labour councillors and is highly marginal, it almost certainly voted Tory in 2019 and would probably be fairly close in a GE even with current polling. Tividale is 72% White with substantial South Asian and Black minorities, 7.1 Sikh 5.3% Muslim, 23% socially rented, 26% with no qualifications and 33.5% in semi-routine or routine work.
Rowley - the main thing you'll notice about Rowley is that it is hilly, the heavily quarried downslope of the Oakham ridge comes down into Rowley and on the west there is Warren's Hall and to the south there is Hawne Hill. Council houses, or rather in most cases former council houses hang off then, not quite at Welsh valleys levels, but not far off. Rowley Regis is in the far west of the ward, or at least part of it, Rowley village is in the far south of the ward, or at least part of it is. Rowley Regis railway station is well outside of the ward and really in Blackheath. They also like osses here, like the folks of part of Dublin, it is not unusual to find a pony grazing on a roundabout or in someone's front yard. Whilst Rowley is working class and probably the majority of the houses here are former or current council houses, it's always had a strong Tory vote and undoubtedly voted for them in 2019. It currently has 2 Labour councillors and 1 Independent elected as Conservative councillor. It is 81.6% White with only 8.8 South Asian, 4.8 Muslim, 3.3% Sikh, 25% socially rented, 26% with no qualifications and 34.3% in semi-routine or routine work.
The sitting MP for West Bromwich East - Nicola Richards has decided not to stand for the new seat and doesn’t appear to be looking elsewhere for nomination - although I'm informed she's been seen in Solihull. At the time of writing (late Jan 2024) she has not yet been replaced, Labour have selected as have the Reform UK party, perhaps the lateness of the Conservative selection shows that they realise that it is likely to revert to Labour. How safe it will be for them is another question.
