Post by John Chanin on Jan 26, 2024 15:22:39 GMT
This is based on the original profile by iang , with added 2021 census data and boundary changes, and an enhanced and reorganized physical description by me.
This seat covers the eastern section of the borough of Walsall, but very little of it is actually part of that town, and half of it is outside the built up area of Greater Birmingham. There are actually 5 separate bits. Brownhills is an independent town that is part of the Cannock area, sticking north in something of a salient into Staffordshire. It is also an ex-mining town, the last pits having closed in the 1950s. In fact there are three different parts to the town, with two sections between the A5 Watling street and the M6 toll stretching up to the Chasewater reservoir, disconnected from the main part of the town with its substantial high street. In total there are 10,000 voters here. Educational qualifications are low, with less than 20% with degrees, and it is the most working class section of the seat, with a high level of social renting. Historically it was the only reliable Labour part of the seat, but like the other Cannock towns it has swung a long way to the right, and the Conservatives now win comfortably at the local level.
The other part of the seat with some Labour tradition are the slightly detached Walsall suburbs of Pelsall, Shelfield, and Rushall, separated from the main built up area by railways, streams, and canals. There are 20,000 voters here, and while not as working class as Brownhills, they are not middle-class either. Pelsall, surrounding its common, is a little more up market, while Shelfield has more social housing and a small ethnic minority population, and Rushall has a football team in the National League. Politically Pelsall is safely Conservative while the Rushall-Shelfield ward is marginal, with the Conservatives having 6 wins to Labour’s 4 since 2011. Aldridge and neighboring Walsall Wood are on the other hand exurbs, separated from the conurbation by a chunk of countryside, and mainly developed since the war. They account for another 20,000 voters. Census statistics show they are not as middle-class as they look - yes there are more managerial than routine workers, particularly in Aldridge, but more people with minimal qualifications than degrees. The area is 90% white, and there are more social housing tenants than you might expect. These are not the plush commuter villages found on the other outskirts of the city. What they are is very safely Conservative.
The fourth part of the seat are actual suburbs of Birmingham which have ended up outside its boundaries. Streetly, accounting for another 10,000 voters, sits on the west side of the giant Sutton Park, and is part of a very up market area including Little Aston to the north, Sutton Four Oaks to the east, and New Oscott to the south. The area is close to 50% managerial, and 90% owner-occupied, though like Sutton Coldfield with some spill over of asian households from Birmingham and south Walsall, predominantly Sikh. Aldridge-Brownhills was the third smallest constituency in England after the boundary review that came in in 2010, with only 59,000 electors. The Boundary Commission have now remedied this by adding territory from Walsall South. Most of this consists of the 1930s suburb of Pheasey, neighboring Oscott in Birmingham and separated from Walsall by open country. It was an entirely private development, not completed until after the war, and has similar demographics and politics to Aldridge, though with a higher asian population as might be expected from somewhere that is geographically part of Birmingham. Pheasey accounts for around 7000 voters. This leaves the seat still short of the minimum level required under the new regulations, so the Boundary Commission has also added part of Walsall proper in the form of the part of Paddock ward to the east of the Rushall canal. This is the smartest part of Walsall, with large houses, and a very middle-class owner-occupied population, nearly half south asian (split evenly Muslim and Sikh), and although there are only 5000 voters here, the Conservatives in Walsall will miss it, as Paddock was their stronghold in the old Walsall South seat.
In summary this is another Midlands seat that is perhaps a little more Conservative than might be expected. One key figure is that of the 2016 EU Referendum – it was 68% Leave, almost identical to the Leave vote across Walsall authority as a whole. This is a very Brexity seat in a very Brexity area. UKIP for example produced a strong challenge at the 2014 local elections when they polled over 30% in every ward bar Aldridge Central and South, and even there it was 27%. Brownhills indeed went UKIP, and it was UKIP intervention in Rushall-Shelfield that handed that ward to Labour with just 109 votes separating the Labour victor from UKIP in third, with the Conservatives in between. It is also, by West Midlands standards, a predominantly white area, although somewhat reduced in the boundary changes. Educational qualifications are low, which tends to improve the Conservative position these days. Given such results, it is perhaps surprising that Labour retained second place at the General Election a year later, and UKIP may well have felt disappointed with just under 20% of the vote. Since then of course, the UKIP challenge has faded, and the salience of the EU issue is much reduced.
It is difficult today to imagine Aldridge-Brownhills being a knife edge marginal. But so it was on its creation in 1974. Dame Patricia Hornsby-Smith, having lost out on selection following boundary changes in south east London to Ted Heath in Sidcup migrated to the Midlands but failed to win the new seat by just 366 votes. Labour MP Geoff Edge survived the October election too with a 2,500 majority, but then was swept away by Richard Shepherd in 1979. The new MP gained a majority of over 5000, with almost exactly 50% of the vote. The only years in which this was to fall below 50% in subsequent elections were the Labour landslide of 1997 and 2005, and 1997 was the only occasion the seat looked truly marginal and the only time Sir Richard’s majority fell below 10%. Sir Richard was a good fit for the constituency – Euro-sceptic, but independent minded, and generally well regarded across the political spectrum. His retirement, and replacement by the not local Wendy Morton in 2015 caused some ructions amongst the local Conservatives, and saw the Tory vote dip a bit from 59% to 52%. Morton is a former civil servant turned businesswoman from Yorkshire originally. Subsequent elections however have seen Wendy Morton’s vote rise to heights unheard of in Sir Richard’s times – 65% in 2017 and 70% in 2019. With a majority of 50%, this now looks like the Conservative equivalent of the sort of majority Labour used to get in mining towns, and the days when Labour could hope to represent a constituency like this look well and truly over.
Census data: Owner-occupied 76% (47/575 in England & Wales), private rented 11% (571st), social rented 13% (363rd).
: White 85%(358th), Black 2%(226th), South Asian 8%(139th), Mixed 2%(270th), Other 2%(289th)
: Managerial & professional 36% (345th), Routine & Semi-routine 30% (222nd)
: Degree 27% (427th), Minimal qualifications 33% (118th)
: Students 5% (338th), Over 65: 23% (137th)
Boundaries: The new seat is made up of 83% from Aldridge-Brownhills and 17% from Walsall South
All of the old seat is in the new one
This seat covers the eastern section of the borough of Walsall, but very little of it is actually part of that town, and half of it is outside the built up area of Greater Birmingham. There are actually 5 separate bits. Brownhills is an independent town that is part of the Cannock area, sticking north in something of a salient into Staffordshire. It is also an ex-mining town, the last pits having closed in the 1950s. In fact there are three different parts to the town, with two sections between the A5 Watling street and the M6 toll stretching up to the Chasewater reservoir, disconnected from the main part of the town with its substantial high street. In total there are 10,000 voters here. Educational qualifications are low, with less than 20% with degrees, and it is the most working class section of the seat, with a high level of social renting. Historically it was the only reliable Labour part of the seat, but like the other Cannock towns it has swung a long way to the right, and the Conservatives now win comfortably at the local level.
The other part of the seat with some Labour tradition are the slightly detached Walsall suburbs of Pelsall, Shelfield, and Rushall, separated from the main built up area by railways, streams, and canals. There are 20,000 voters here, and while not as working class as Brownhills, they are not middle-class either. Pelsall, surrounding its common, is a little more up market, while Shelfield has more social housing and a small ethnic minority population, and Rushall has a football team in the National League. Politically Pelsall is safely Conservative while the Rushall-Shelfield ward is marginal, with the Conservatives having 6 wins to Labour’s 4 since 2011. Aldridge and neighboring Walsall Wood are on the other hand exurbs, separated from the conurbation by a chunk of countryside, and mainly developed since the war. They account for another 20,000 voters. Census statistics show they are not as middle-class as they look - yes there are more managerial than routine workers, particularly in Aldridge, but more people with minimal qualifications than degrees. The area is 90% white, and there are more social housing tenants than you might expect. These are not the plush commuter villages found on the other outskirts of the city. What they are is very safely Conservative.
The fourth part of the seat are actual suburbs of Birmingham which have ended up outside its boundaries. Streetly, accounting for another 10,000 voters, sits on the west side of the giant Sutton Park, and is part of a very up market area including Little Aston to the north, Sutton Four Oaks to the east, and New Oscott to the south. The area is close to 50% managerial, and 90% owner-occupied, though like Sutton Coldfield with some spill over of asian households from Birmingham and south Walsall, predominantly Sikh. Aldridge-Brownhills was the third smallest constituency in England after the boundary review that came in in 2010, with only 59,000 electors. The Boundary Commission have now remedied this by adding territory from Walsall South. Most of this consists of the 1930s suburb of Pheasey, neighboring Oscott in Birmingham and separated from Walsall by open country. It was an entirely private development, not completed until after the war, and has similar demographics and politics to Aldridge, though with a higher asian population as might be expected from somewhere that is geographically part of Birmingham. Pheasey accounts for around 7000 voters. This leaves the seat still short of the minimum level required under the new regulations, so the Boundary Commission has also added part of Walsall proper in the form of the part of Paddock ward to the east of the Rushall canal. This is the smartest part of Walsall, with large houses, and a very middle-class owner-occupied population, nearly half south asian (split evenly Muslim and Sikh), and although there are only 5000 voters here, the Conservatives in Walsall will miss it, as Paddock was their stronghold in the old Walsall South seat.
In summary this is another Midlands seat that is perhaps a little more Conservative than might be expected. One key figure is that of the 2016 EU Referendum – it was 68% Leave, almost identical to the Leave vote across Walsall authority as a whole. This is a very Brexity seat in a very Brexity area. UKIP for example produced a strong challenge at the 2014 local elections when they polled over 30% in every ward bar Aldridge Central and South, and even there it was 27%. Brownhills indeed went UKIP, and it was UKIP intervention in Rushall-Shelfield that handed that ward to Labour with just 109 votes separating the Labour victor from UKIP in third, with the Conservatives in between. It is also, by West Midlands standards, a predominantly white area, although somewhat reduced in the boundary changes. Educational qualifications are low, which tends to improve the Conservative position these days. Given such results, it is perhaps surprising that Labour retained second place at the General Election a year later, and UKIP may well have felt disappointed with just under 20% of the vote. Since then of course, the UKIP challenge has faded, and the salience of the EU issue is much reduced.
It is difficult today to imagine Aldridge-Brownhills being a knife edge marginal. But so it was on its creation in 1974. Dame Patricia Hornsby-Smith, having lost out on selection following boundary changes in south east London to Ted Heath in Sidcup migrated to the Midlands but failed to win the new seat by just 366 votes. Labour MP Geoff Edge survived the October election too with a 2,500 majority, but then was swept away by Richard Shepherd in 1979. The new MP gained a majority of over 5000, with almost exactly 50% of the vote. The only years in which this was to fall below 50% in subsequent elections were the Labour landslide of 1997 and 2005, and 1997 was the only occasion the seat looked truly marginal and the only time Sir Richard’s majority fell below 10%. Sir Richard was a good fit for the constituency – Euro-sceptic, but independent minded, and generally well regarded across the political spectrum. His retirement, and replacement by the not local Wendy Morton in 2015 caused some ructions amongst the local Conservatives, and saw the Tory vote dip a bit from 59% to 52%. Morton is a former civil servant turned businesswoman from Yorkshire originally. Subsequent elections however have seen Wendy Morton’s vote rise to heights unheard of in Sir Richard’s times – 65% in 2017 and 70% in 2019. With a majority of 50%, this now looks like the Conservative equivalent of the sort of majority Labour used to get in mining towns, and the days when Labour could hope to represent a constituency like this look well and truly over.
Census data: Owner-occupied 76% (47/575 in England & Wales), private rented 11% (571st), social rented 13% (363rd).
: White 85%(358th), Black 2%(226th), South Asian 8%(139th), Mixed 2%(270th), Other 2%(289th)
: Managerial & professional 36% (345th), Routine & Semi-routine 30% (222nd)
: Degree 27% (427th), Minimal qualifications 33% (118th)
: Students 5% (338th), Over 65: 23% (137th)
Boundaries: The new seat is made up of 83% from Aldridge-Brownhills and 17% from Walsall South
All of the old seat is in the new one
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 26,317 | 65.4 | 27,850 | 70.8 | 32,941 | 69.6 |
Labour | 12,010 | 29.8 | 8,014 | 20.4 | 10,183 | 21.5 |
Liberal Democrat | 1,343 | 3.3 | 2,371 | 6.2 | 2,654 | 5.6 |
Brexit | 334 | 0.7 | ||||
Green | 771 | 2.0 | 873 | 1.8 | ||
Other | 565 | 1.4 | 336 | 0.9 | 336 | 0.7 |
| Majority | 14,307 | 35.6 | 19,836 | 50.4 | 22,758 | 48.1 |