Post by andrewp on Jan 21, 2024 13:14:05 GMT
This is based heavily on an excellent original profile by iain with updates on local elections and census stats and one or two other things from me.
A regency spa town, the Cheltenham constituency was created in the Great Reform Act of 1832. Nowadays Cheltenham is probably best known for its horse racing, though the racecourse is not actually in the constituency (though is included in the borough), as well as its festivals, including the longest running literature festival in the world, and the Ladies’ College. The town has a middle-class reputation, and unsurprisingly recorded a well above-average Remain score of 57% at the EU referendum. However, the constituency is not uniform, and contains significant pockets of deprivation.
The centre of Cheltenham is home mostly to Georgian and Victorian housing, generally terraces, which range from very smart to really quite downmarket. Areas like Montpellier, Pittville and Lansdown are very wealthy, and historically Conservative-voting; while All Saints, Tivoli and Naunton are the sorts of middle-class areas which in the past decided the winner of the seat; and St Paul’s and St Peter’s are deprived and anti-Conservative. What unites these seemingly very different areas is that they will all have voted ‘Remain’ fairly comfortably, and probably Liberal Democrat at the most recent general election.
The south of the town includes a number of post-war suburbs like Benhall, Hatherley and Warden Hill. These areas are on the whole fairly affluent, but will have above average ‘Leave’ votes for the town. Suburbs such as this will always have been good, albeit not monolithic, for the Conservatives, but recently will have become among the best areas of the town for that party.
Suburbs in the west such as Hester’s Way (home to GCHQ) and Rowanfield, in addition to Whaddon in the east, are also post-war developments, but are distinct from the rest of the town in that they are almost entirely council-built. Deprivation remains high in all of them, and all will have voted ‘Leave’ by relatively comfortable margins. Unsurprisingly, this combination means that these areas have seen the biggest swing to the Conservatives in recent years - from being the most anti-Conservative in the town to among the worst for the Liberal Democrats.
To the south east is the parish of Charlton Kings, a former village which has now grown into the main town. Most housing here is 20th century and suburban, though also included are some older areas and the Battledown Estate, the last surviving private estate in Cheltenham. Charlton Kings will have voted ‘Remain’, but not overwhelmingly, and, although historically Conservative, can probably make a claim to being the town’s new ‘swing’ area.
The demographics of Cheltenham tell the tale of a fairly affluent town. The age profile, and housing status are not far from the median, and it is 91% white. The affluence and perhaps liberalism is reflected by 17.9% of residents having jobs classed as higher professional, and a further 23.2% being classed as lower professional, meaning over 40% of residents are in the top 2 job categories and placing the town in the top 100 constituencies in England and Wales for those measures. 44.8% of people are educated to degree level( ranking 66th in England and Wales) and the constituency is in the lowest quartile for the percentage of people with no qualifications.
Cheltenham town is now too large to fit in one constituency, and the current Cheltenham constituency is slightly on the large side. Two wards from the town are already in the Tewkesbury constituency and in the current boundary review a 3rd ward - Springbank in the north West of the town- and 4700 electors are moved to the Tewkesbury constituency. Springbank gave 77% of the vote to the Liberal Democrats in the last local election of 2022 to 14% to the Conservatives.
Apart from a brief period of Conservative control around the turn of the century, the Borough council has been in Liberal Democrat control since 1991. In the 17 wards in the constituency on new boundaries, there are currently 26 Liberal Democrat councillors to 5 Conservatives, 2 Green councillors and 1 Independent.
Even in their nationally good year of 2021, the Conservatives only won 4 of the 17 wards in this constituency and in 2022, they managed just one win - in leafy Battledown ward to the east of the town centre and rising up into the edge of the Cotswolds. The Liberal Democrats have even subsequently won a seat in that ward in a February 2023 by election. The Greens won their first ever ward in Cheltenham in 2022 gaining the deprived St Paul’s from the Liberal Democrats.
Upon its creation in 1832, the Cheltenham seat became a bastion for the Whigs, and more specifically the Berkeley family, members of whom held the seat through to 1865 (excepting a Conservative win in 1847, which was promptly overturned by an election petition). After the loss of Francis Berkeley, however, Cheltenham became fairly reliable for the Conservatives, who lost only in landslide Liberal victories. The Liberal challenge slowly fell away, and the party stopped standing candidates after 1929 (Labour first stood in a by-election the previous year).
The Conservatives held the seat until 1937, when selection issues intervened. Daniel Lipson, one of the favourites for selection, was not picked, allegedly due to anti-Semitism in the local party. The town had no such qualms, however, and he won the seat as an Independent Conservative, holding on until 1950. From then it again became a reliable seat for the Conservatives. The Liberals started standing again in 1959 (only missing 1966 to date), and the town settled into voting roughly 50-30-20 for Conservative, Labour and Liberal. The Liberals retook second place in February 1974, and began to make the seat marginal. It was a top Liberal target in 1983, 1987 and 1992, and they won the constituency in the latter year.
In echoes of 1937, controversy had marred the Conservatives’ selection. Much to the consternation of some in the local party, a black candidate, John Taylor was selected. That Taylor subsequently lost the seat has long been used as evidence of the risk of selecting ethnic minority candidates. However, the role of racism in this election has likely been widely overstated. Taylor (who received a gaol sentence following the expenses scandal in 2009) had no links to Cheltenham and reportedly ran a very poor campaign, while the Liberal Democrats were by then the dominant party locally and received a similar swing to that seen in other southwest seats in 1992.
Following their loss, the Conservatives never fell out of contention - indeed at the 2010 election, following boundary changes, it was number 6 on the party’s target list - but didn’t manage to regain Cheltenham until the post-coalition Liberal Democrat meltdown in 2015. Current MP Alex Chalk is in the centre of the Conservative Party, and this feels like a constituency where a right wing Conservative candidate might do less well.
Unlike many seats lost in 2015 Cheltenham has remained a key Liberal Democrat target, and they would have been extremely disappointed to have missed out by under 1,000 votes in 2019. Indeed, if it were not for the relatively minor set of boundary changes in 2010 they probably would have narrowly won the constituency in 2019. The removal of Springbank in the current review will help the Conservatives a bit here and add 500 to their notional majority, but unless something changes drastically that will not make a difference. This is Liberal Democrat target number 3 in 2024 and is an almost certain Liberal Democrat gain.
Official Notional result
Con 27,563. 48.5%
LD 26,142. 46%
Lab 2,733. 4.8%
majority 1421 2.5%
A regency spa town, the Cheltenham constituency was created in the Great Reform Act of 1832. Nowadays Cheltenham is probably best known for its horse racing, though the racecourse is not actually in the constituency (though is included in the borough), as well as its festivals, including the longest running literature festival in the world, and the Ladies’ College. The town has a middle-class reputation, and unsurprisingly recorded a well above-average Remain score of 57% at the EU referendum. However, the constituency is not uniform, and contains significant pockets of deprivation.
The centre of Cheltenham is home mostly to Georgian and Victorian housing, generally terraces, which range from very smart to really quite downmarket. Areas like Montpellier, Pittville and Lansdown are very wealthy, and historically Conservative-voting; while All Saints, Tivoli and Naunton are the sorts of middle-class areas which in the past decided the winner of the seat; and St Paul’s and St Peter’s are deprived and anti-Conservative. What unites these seemingly very different areas is that they will all have voted ‘Remain’ fairly comfortably, and probably Liberal Democrat at the most recent general election.
The south of the town includes a number of post-war suburbs like Benhall, Hatherley and Warden Hill. These areas are on the whole fairly affluent, but will have above average ‘Leave’ votes for the town. Suburbs such as this will always have been good, albeit not monolithic, for the Conservatives, but recently will have become among the best areas of the town for that party.
Suburbs in the west such as Hester’s Way (home to GCHQ) and Rowanfield, in addition to Whaddon in the east, are also post-war developments, but are distinct from the rest of the town in that they are almost entirely council-built. Deprivation remains high in all of them, and all will have voted ‘Leave’ by relatively comfortable margins. Unsurprisingly, this combination means that these areas have seen the biggest swing to the Conservatives in recent years - from being the most anti-Conservative in the town to among the worst for the Liberal Democrats.
To the south east is the parish of Charlton Kings, a former village which has now grown into the main town. Most housing here is 20th century and suburban, though also included are some older areas and the Battledown Estate, the last surviving private estate in Cheltenham. Charlton Kings will have voted ‘Remain’, but not overwhelmingly, and, although historically Conservative, can probably make a claim to being the town’s new ‘swing’ area.
The demographics of Cheltenham tell the tale of a fairly affluent town. The age profile, and housing status are not far from the median, and it is 91% white. The affluence and perhaps liberalism is reflected by 17.9% of residents having jobs classed as higher professional, and a further 23.2% being classed as lower professional, meaning over 40% of residents are in the top 2 job categories and placing the town in the top 100 constituencies in England and Wales for those measures. 44.8% of people are educated to degree level( ranking 66th in England and Wales) and the constituency is in the lowest quartile for the percentage of people with no qualifications.
Cheltenham town is now too large to fit in one constituency, and the current Cheltenham constituency is slightly on the large side. Two wards from the town are already in the Tewkesbury constituency and in the current boundary review a 3rd ward - Springbank in the north West of the town- and 4700 electors are moved to the Tewkesbury constituency. Springbank gave 77% of the vote to the Liberal Democrats in the last local election of 2022 to 14% to the Conservatives.
Apart from a brief period of Conservative control around the turn of the century, the Borough council has been in Liberal Democrat control since 1991. In the 17 wards in the constituency on new boundaries, there are currently 26 Liberal Democrat councillors to 5 Conservatives, 2 Green councillors and 1 Independent.
Even in their nationally good year of 2021, the Conservatives only won 4 of the 17 wards in this constituency and in 2022, they managed just one win - in leafy Battledown ward to the east of the town centre and rising up into the edge of the Cotswolds. The Liberal Democrats have even subsequently won a seat in that ward in a February 2023 by election. The Greens won their first ever ward in Cheltenham in 2022 gaining the deprived St Paul’s from the Liberal Democrats.
Upon its creation in 1832, the Cheltenham seat became a bastion for the Whigs, and more specifically the Berkeley family, members of whom held the seat through to 1865 (excepting a Conservative win in 1847, which was promptly overturned by an election petition). After the loss of Francis Berkeley, however, Cheltenham became fairly reliable for the Conservatives, who lost only in landslide Liberal victories. The Liberal challenge slowly fell away, and the party stopped standing candidates after 1929 (Labour first stood in a by-election the previous year).
The Conservatives held the seat until 1937, when selection issues intervened. Daniel Lipson, one of the favourites for selection, was not picked, allegedly due to anti-Semitism in the local party. The town had no such qualms, however, and he won the seat as an Independent Conservative, holding on until 1950. From then it again became a reliable seat for the Conservatives. The Liberals started standing again in 1959 (only missing 1966 to date), and the town settled into voting roughly 50-30-20 for Conservative, Labour and Liberal. The Liberals retook second place in February 1974, and began to make the seat marginal. It was a top Liberal target in 1983, 1987 and 1992, and they won the constituency in the latter year.
In echoes of 1937, controversy had marred the Conservatives’ selection. Much to the consternation of some in the local party, a black candidate, John Taylor was selected. That Taylor subsequently lost the seat has long been used as evidence of the risk of selecting ethnic minority candidates. However, the role of racism in this election has likely been widely overstated. Taylor (who received a gaol sentence following the expenses scandal in 2009) had no links to Cheltenham and reportedly ran a very poor campaign, while the Liberal Democrats were by then the dominant party locally and received a similar swing to that seen in other southwest seats in 1992.
Following their loss, the Conservatives never fell out of contention - indeed at the 2010 election, following boundary changes, it was number 6 on the party’s target list - but didn’t manage to regain Cheltenham until the post-coalition Liberal Democrat meltdown in 2015. Current MP Alex Chalk is in the centre of the Conservative Party, and this feels like a constituency where a right wing Conservative candidate might do less well.
Unlike many seats lost in 2015 Cheltenham has remained a key Liberal Democrat target, and they would have been extremely disappointed to have missed out by under 1,000 votes in 2019. Indeed, if it were not for the relatively minor set of boundary changes in 2010 they probably would have narrowly won the constituency in 2019. The removal of Springbank in the current review will help the Conservatives a bit here and add 500 to their notional majority, but unless something changes drastically that will not make a difference. This is Liberal Democrat target number 3 in 2024 and is an almost certain Liberal Democrat gain.
Official Notional result
Con 27,563. 48.5%
LD 26,142. 46%
Lab 2,733. 4.8%
majority 1421 2.5%
